, 21 tweets, 10 min read Read on Twitter
1/ Day 5 of #NATO7for70 to commemorate 70 years of @NATO!

The fifth installment is "When NATO Went to War: Kosovo 1999"
2/ By 1999, @NATO had been in existence for 50 years. But it had yet to engage in major combat operations.
3/ Maybe this was because @NATO had effectively deterred aggression?

Perhaps. But as I discussed in this thread, identifying the deterrent effect of an alliance is tough

4/ But following the end of the Cold War, @NATO became involved in a number of lower-intensity missions, such as peacekeeping operations in the Balkans
5/ These operations were a response to the series of wars following the collapse of Yugoslavia
6/ The initial Balkan wars ended with the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords
7/ Subsequently, @NATO took on the responsibility of ensuring the peace in the region
8/ By 1998, however, things started to go south in one of the key successor states of Yugoslavia, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
9/ One of the states of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Kosovo, wanted more autonomy from Serbia, the largest of the remaining Yugoslavian states.

The leader of Yugoslavia, Slobodan Milošević, said no.
10/ More precisely, his authorization of military force in Kosovo led to waves of refugees into neighboring locales, such as Macedonia.
11/ Officials from the United States and NATO began demanding that Milosevic and the Serbian Army stop.

For example...
12/ Javier Solana Madariaga (@javiersolana), NATO’s Secretary- General, threatened Serbia, stating,

“On Kosovo, let me be quite clear that NATO will not stand idly by. We will not allow a repeat of the situation in Bosnia in 1991.”
13/ Similarly, US Army General Wesley Clark (@GeneralClark), the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, made clear that

“if required, we will strike in a swift and severe fashion”
14/ But Milosevic didn’t back down. Why?

It seems he believed that the NATO allies were not be willing to collectively sustain their efforts. In short, they lacked "resolve"

Here is what he said in a May 1, 1999 interview with @UPI
15/ On March 24, NATO had begun bombing to halt the Serb offensive. This was Operation Allied Force
16/ Justifying the actions, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, speaking on April 22 before the @EconClubChi, said

“those nations which have the power, have the responsibility.”

This became the "Blair Doctrine"
17/ After 78 days, the Air Campaign was over. Milosevic finally backed down.
18/ But many felt that the destruction from the campaign was disproportionate
19/ In particular, 🇷🇺 and 🇨🇳 had opposed the operation (which is why it did not receive UNSC approval) and NATO bombs hit 🇨🇳s Belgrade Embassy
20/ So @NATO finally went to war.

As I’ve highlighted before, there is some controversy among scholars about whether the 1999 Kosovo campaign should be considered truly a “NATO” operation or instead a bilateral war between the US and Serbia

21/ Regardless, the war was important for the alliance & for geopolitics.

It demonstrated US (& UK) willingness to go outside the @UN, & marked a worsening of US-Russian relations.

Both of these would impact the US and @NATO for the next decade+.

(end)
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