Thread by @lewis_goodall

So to sum up #EP2019 in the UK

A *cataclysm* of a bad night for the Tories. Quite literally their worst election ever. The worst since the Great Reform Act of 1832 which began, you know, British democracy.

The Brexit Party did extremely well. With no ground organisation they won a national election by a mile. They surpassed UKIP’s vote share. They won more seats. They’re now the joint largest party in the European Parliament (alongside German CDU). It will terrify the Tories.

Labour had their worst performance too. Haemorrhaged remain support. Fifth in Scotland. Third in Wales. Second in London. Catastrophic. The Corbyn ambiguity strategy worked for a long time. It’s not working now.

Stellar stellar night for the Lib Dems. They’ve gone from their worst ever performance in 2014 (one seat) to their best ever this time (16 seats). Taken alongside their locals results they’ve had a stunning comeback. They are now the undoubted primary English voice of remain.

Which makes the question of Change UK’s reason to be yet more pressing. The answer is there isn’t one and I suspect they’ll fold into the Lib Dems (if they’ll have them) in relatively short order.

Fantastic night for the Greens too (best performance since 1989) and Plaid and SNP. In fact all the unalloyed remain parties (apart from Change) had a stonker.

And therein lies the rub. Both extremes can claim a mandate for these results. BXP because they came first by a mile. The remain parties because collectively they did very well and better than the parties of hard Brexit (depending on how you count the Tories)

But it all depends how you slice it

Remain vs Leave

Remain=40.4%
Leave=44%

Includes all parties except Labour as is ambiguous. If Labour include on Remain tally remain would clearly win.

On other hand if you look at it on those in favour of (or willing to accept) a people’s vote/second referendum picture is much clearer

Pro PV= 54.4%
Anti PV= 44%

It’s a confusing picture. But both Labour and the Tories are likely to respond by embracing a more hardline position, thus making a compromise even less likely (it was on life support before, it died tonight)

Euro elections aren’t usually a good indicator of anything long term. But #EP2019 were exceptional. They may reveal something profound which is happening to the two party system.

Either way, it feels to me if as if it’s only FPTP which is keeping Lab/Tories alive right now.

And frankly, given you can see how unbelievably exciting it was, I’m sure you’re feeling absolutely stupid for going to bed.

Night night.