Thread by @BBCkatyaadler

PM faced here at #G7France with the impossibilities of cakeism (the having it and the eating it). Are closer trade ties and closer diplomatic ties (on Iran, on the environment and more) with Europe or the US? It’s a choice /1

Not possible to dance equally well at both weddings (EU and US pull in different directions on a number of fundamental issues) ...Never mind trying to keep the domestic political band in tune all at the same time (tortured metaphors. Apols. Put downtown post summer haze) /2

This morning with Trump, the PM said he ‘doesn’t like tariffs on the whole’ but that’s what he’s going to get with closest neighbours EU in the case of no deal and/or eventual arms-length EU-UK trade deal which would allow him a close trading relationship with US /3

The PM admitted today a trade deal with US would take a bit of time bc they are tough negotiators. He also should not underestimate the EU. He’s right bloc would far rather avoid a no deal #Brexit but he’s wrong if he thinks they’ll ‘cave in at last moment’ /4

True. EU always has something extra up sleeve to give BUT the bloc only concedes when in own self interest. As I’ve mooted before, a time-limit to backstop is conceivable (but only if Dublin agrees) as it throws the vexed border issue into the longer grass BUT /5

Getting rid of backstop altogether (or what backstop stands for: ie a from- day-1 of #Brexit border guarantee) is a no-go. The whole point for EU is to protect single market and NI peace process plus stand up for member state Ireland /6

If it comes to a no deal #Brexit , EU will come back with border demand again when it eventually sits down with the UK to discuss relations going forward /7

For now EU not in dark room frantically thinking up new #Brexit deals. Noises from UK about divorce bill and ECJ jurisdiction as well as backstop leads to a sense in EU that -again- there is lack of clarity about what compromise would DEFINITELY get a #Brexit deal passed /8

Merkel is sincere about wanting a deal and having an open ear but this is not new. She’s often said she’ll ‘work till the last minute’ to find a solution BUT she hasn’t changed EU red lines on content of deal and Germany’s main industry lobby supports that /8

For now EU “hoping”PM Johnson will find a way that’s acceptable to majority on all sides. EU leaders believe despite tough words that he’ll try as they think a no deal #Brexit means losing UK gov losing control NOT taking it back. And why? Well, after no deal.. /9

Brussels decides unilaterally how long to recognise UK pilot licenses etc. EU must agree when to start post #Brexit trade talks, financial markets decide strength/weakness of £ and potential trade partners US, Japan etc won’t complete with UK till relations with EU are clear /10

PS Also what about services? UK economy is 80% service-based. These days -as Michel Barnier is fond of pointing out- services are often linked to goods. Eg mobile phones. If EU-UK trade relationship becomes thornier, what will knock-on effect be for UK service industries? /11