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1/The polls weren't wrong in 2016. They changed. They were changed by the dramatic intervention by our domestic intelligence service. Without the Comey Letter, and Russia's help, Trump never would have won. See this @FiveThirtyEight graph, analysis fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-c… 
@FiveThirtyEight 2/Prior to the Comey Letter Clinton was up 6-7 pts for weeks. Trump was terrible at the debates, race was stable, no reason she would/could tank at the end. She lost 4 pts in those post Comey days, making it a 2 pt race. Enough for Trump to win.
@FiveThirtyEight 3/Additionally, I think Russia's help was worth another 1-2-3 points. I explain why in the thread below. Which means without Comey and Russia, Clinton wins by 7-9 pts.
@FiveThirtyEight 4/So staying w/this analysis, without Russia and Comey, Trump loses by 7-9 points in 2016. He lost by 8.6 pts in 2018. He's spent most of his Presidency in that range as you can see in this piece ndn.org/blog/2019/08/a… Not surprising he's trailing so badly in current polling.
@FiveThirtyEight 5/Repeating this for those in the back - Donald Trump is the most unpopular first term President since polling was invented with no near peer.
He got his ass kicked in 2018 and is losing badly now. It's so bad GOP holding back data.
He got his ass kicked in 2018 and is losing badly now. It's so bad GOP holding back data.
@FiveThirtyEight 6/The President has three serious primary challengers. He barely won a House special last night in a district he won by 12 pts in 2016. He is more unpopular today than he was Election Day 2018, and is the 30s in recent polls.
@FiveThirtyEight 7/He's tanked in the Rustbelt, and his party got beat badly there in 2018. It is he who has to win those voters back, not Dems. ndn.org/blog/2019/06/d…
@FiveThirtyEight 8/He's accelerated the GOP decline in heavily Mexican-American parts of the US, tilting AZ blue and putting Texas in play. Is a slow moving catastrophe for the GOP. ndn.org/blog/2019/02/n…
@FiveThirtyEight 9/Finally, with the economy weakening, and his numbers dropping to an even more dangerous place, there now becomes a huge incentive for Trump to cheat, rig, deepfake. collude his way back into the White House. How we won last time.
@FiveThirtyEight 10/Which is why Trump's recent string of foreign policy gifts to the Russians and the GOP's embrace of Russian style disinfo tactics so worrisome. medium.com/@Simon_Rosenbe… As if he knows it is the only way he can win next year. Fin.
