@KVeersen I think the India decision is obvious as India has little to gain from RCEP, which basically is just to reduce tariffs & India got the highest to reduce & also the juiciest market. It doesn’t cover investment etc like the TPP. So it makes sense that India is like no thanks.
@KVeersen Note that ASEAN & the countries involved already part of the deal such as ASEAN + 10 etc. These free trade agreements are not like the US or EU trade agreements that are more comprehensive. There are still plenty of non-tariff barriers via distribution etc w/n ASEAN, China, Japan
@KVeersen In short, RCEP is basically a symbolic win for China in getting these econs on board. Asia as a whole, excluding India, has lowered tariffs a lot. But non-tariff barriers are high! In other words, India didn’t sign RCEP b/c it has little to gain (not a big trader) & more to lose.
@KVeersen Note that for most firms that think about long-term growth, the answer is India. This means that the countries that want RCEP to include India the most are the ones w/ slowing growth, exporting power, & demographic issues (China, Japan..) & want LOWER Indian tariffs for access👈🏻
@KVeersen India knows this much is true: thee least export dependent economy (see tweets earlier today) & so won’t gain from RCEP as other countries already have LOW tariffs but high non-tariff barriers & gain more if India lowers its high tariffs👈🏻. India’ll want investment not just goods
@KVeersen So by recently lowering the corporate tax rates & if India manages more reforms like labor & land, the firms in waning demographic & growth but huge industrial power will come to India but not just goods but also investment. India needs jobs & capital. That’s the prize not RCEP👈🏻
