New: UK GDP did not grow in final quarter of 2019 - 0.0%
“Manufacturing output fell sharply” and has now fallen for three consecutive quarters... but service sector also slowed to near stagnation of 0.1%.
2019 annual figure comes in at a sluggish 1.4%, a touch higher than year before. Q4 2019 on Q4 2018 growth of 1.1%, not been lower in a decade since last recession.
But Q3 revised up to 0.5, and December monthly figures up 0.3%...
But Q3 revised up to 0.5, and December monthly figures up 0.3%...
So economy definitely lost momentum in Q4... but signs, alongside new year survey data that it picked some of that back up after the election.
General picture of a sluggish economy, weak global backdrop, low business investment, disruptions from Brexit shutdowns/ stockpiling...
General picture of a sluggish economy, weak global backdrop, low business investment, disruptions from Brexit shutdowns/ stockpiling...
Looking ahead to this year - two-speed economy definitely on cards. Rebound in housing market, bit of a boost from public spending... services plough on. But manufacturing/ production still under cosh from new Brexit trade frictions etc.
Recall “Two speeds are better than none”
Recall “Two speeds are better than none”
More detail on fall in investment in Q4, driven by 1.0% fall in business investment... spreadsheet shows Gross Fixed Capital formation in Q4, actually below where it was just after referendum in Q3 2016
More detail on “widespread falls in manufacturing” - its the blue bars here: 
Overall negatives from trade and investment in Q4 which would have led to a contraction in GDP were outweighed by considerable jump in Government spend contribution - as @samueltombs and @kittyussher have pointed out: HT @PantheonMacro for chart:
