Thread by @dcpetterson

If we double the confirmed cases every 2-3 days:
Mar 11 - 1,000
Mar 14 - 2,000
Mar 16 - 4,000
Mar 19 - 8,000
Mar 21 - 16,000
Mar 24 - 32,000
Mar 26 - 64,000
Mar 29 - 128,000
Mar 31 - 256,000
Apr 2 - 512,000
Apr 5 - 1,000,000
Apr 7 - 2,000,000
Apr 10 - 4,000,000

1/

https://twitter.com/dcpetterson/status/1237861070217216000

Apr 12 - 8,000,000
Apr 15 - 16,000,000
Apr 17 - 32,000,000
Apr 20 - 64,000,000
Apr 22 - 128,000,000
Apr 25 - everyone in America

2/

Interstate commerce will collapse long before we get to the end there.

At some point (probably around Apr 1), the rate of doubling will slow, because people will not be travelling outside of their communities and everyone around them will already have been infected.

3/

About 20% of cases (1 in 5) need hospitalization. We have about 1,000,000 hospital beds in America, and around 700,000 of them are filled at any one time. We will exceed our capacity to care for patients in early April. Individual cities will reach that limit much sooner.

4/

Even with travel restrictions, epidemiologists say around 70% of Americans will contract the virus. Between 2% and 4% of cases result in death (more in some areas). That means we can expect between 5 and 10 million deaths.

5/

It takes around 14 days for symptoms to show after a person has been infected. That means the 64,000 people we can expect to be confirmed as infected two weeks from now, March 26, HAVE TODAY ALREADY BEEN INFECTED.

Which means coronavirus has already spread everywhere.

6/

Let me repeat that.

Coronavirus is already spread throughout our nation. It's likely that between 50,000 and 100,000 people in America ARE ALREADY INFECTED.

And still, the Trump Administration does nothing.
And still, Republicans oppose efforts to stop it.

7/

And still, Fox "News" tells us it's no more than a cold.