@Taniel

@Taniel

RRH Elections

@RRHElections

GOP House math coming into focus:

206 seats are locked down.

R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.

That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03

The easiest path to 4:

#CA41 Calvert (R) holds a Trump seat as more votes come in.

#WA03 Kent (R) comes back as late votes typically break R in WA.

#AZ01 Schweikert (R) comes back as late votes are generally pro-R in Arizona.

#CA27 Garcia (R) holds his 15-point lead.

Republicans are also bullish on #CT05, which is very close. R's lead #OR05 by 4 and #CA22 by 8, but with more mail-ballot uncertainty (the NYT needle sees R's as modest favorites in both).

Regardless, it's a wait-and-see game with Western mail votes.

Read 3 tweets

Robert Rutledge

@rerutled

This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).

+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning

Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.

#Election2022

Note especially: 3 (of 10 total) GOP "Toss up" seats have already been called for Democratic Victory.
#NC13 #OH01 #TX34.

On the Dem "Toss up" side, there's #VA02 which flipped Red. But that's it.

In summary, of currently held Dem seats, only 1 flipped Dem-> GOP (#VA02), with 6 races leaning GOP.

On the other hand, of current GOP seats, 4 have flipped GOP->Dem (#MT01, #NC13, #OH01, #TX34) and 7 lean Democrats.

I think the Democrats will win the US House.

Read 22 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.

Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.

Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NY17 $2,593,204
#IL06 $1,913,350
#NV03 $1,509,471
#CA47 $1,484,309
#NV01 $1,447,925
#PA07 $1,419,827
#CA49 $1,343,586
#NY04 $1,324,750
#CA13 $1,162,594
#TX34 $1,050,079
#VA07 $1,031,830
#IL17 $996,760
#IN01 $899,304
#NY18 $786,512
#MN02 $653,079

Tonight's CLF buys (2/3)

#CA22 $646,452
#WA08 $644,145
#OR05 $636,737
#CT05 $604,832
#NY19 $599,291
#NC13 $594,582
#PA17 $567,250
#ME02 $527,500
#RI02 $506,313
#NY22 $497,750
#MI07 $453,800
#OR06 $447,500
#OH13 $402,750
#TX28 $356,186
#OH01 $340,851
#AZ06 $320,051
#AZ01 $310,380

Read 5 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1587989886933471233

And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...

$45.9 million in 57 House races...

adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1587989886933471233

Tonight's HMP buys (1/4)

#NY03 $2,091,249
#NY18 $1,987,496
#NJ11 $1,961,501
#NJ05 $1,961,476
#PA07 $1,687,355
#IL17 $1,674,366
#TX28 $1,579,645
#VA07 $1,480,888
#MI07 $1,480,436
#PA17 $1,366,568
#MN02 $1,349,450
#NY19 $1,317,868
#NH01 $1,262,355
#CA13 $1,170,657
#NH02 $1,083,220

Tonight's HMP buys (2/4)

#NY04 $1,073,658
#AZ01 $1,054,068
#WA08 $1,050,275
#TX34 $1,034,351
#OR06 $1,008,020
#OH13 $961,300
#IN01 $947,522
#NV01 $902,915
#PA08 $882,593
#IL13 $866,533
#NM02 $840,709
#NY22 $804,598
#OH01 $759,588
#CO08 $746,912
#ME02 $726,274
#NC13 $710,544

Read 6 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

@NRCC

The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1587834501354299392

Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07 $1,374,911
#ME02 $1,352,673
#MN02 $1,258,023
#OH13 $1,154,607
#NY22 $997,406
#VA07 $982,903
#CA22 $950,397
#PA08 $877,281
#TX28 $854,057
#PA17 $836,060
#NH01 $787,150
#WA08 $741,749
#IL17 $627,333
#NY19 $563,935
#NM02 $527,100
#PA07 $508,737

Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17 $492,456
#CO08 $484,379
#AZ06 $460,274
#RI02 $458,462
#NE02 $437,216
#CA27 $395,668
#CT05 $359,491
#TX34 $356,517
#IA03 $351,819
#MI08 $349,054
#NJ07 $334,947
#VA02 $323,999
#CA45 $290,779

Read 4 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1587559292940406784

The DCCC is out with what is likely its final major buy before the election, dropping $8 million in 23 House races and adding the Biden +15% #NY04 to the board as targeted seat number 67.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1587559292940406784

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1587559292940406784

(This is also the first direct independent expenditure spending by the DCCC to defend DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in #NY17).

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1587559292940406784

Today's DCCC buys (1/2)

#CA22 $1,142,098
#NV03 $1,094,710
#ME02 $932,408
#CA49 $880,015
#PA08 $739,586
#IL17 $553,515
#OH13 $505,750
#CT05 $486,503
#PA17 $368,367
#NV04 $333,393
#NE02 $201,976
#NY17 $112,517
#VA07 $108,368
#TX28 $93,997
#NH01 $90,100
#OH01 $79,700
#NY04 $71,000

Read 4 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.

Today's CLF buys (1/3)

#CA47 $1,682,483
#PA07 $1,539,925
#NY17 $1,518,158
#NV03 $1,503,351
#NV01 $1,455,758
#IN01 $1,014,589
#VA07 $991,831
#CA13 $945,284
#NJ07 $833,186
#NY19 $770,181
#CA49 $769,283
#TX34 $738,255
#WA08 $715,288
#CA22 $711,987
#OR05 $680,714
#PA17 $665,653

Today's CLF buys (2/3)

#TX28 $636,376
#CO08 $624,456
#IL17 $611,310
#CT05 $608,112
#NC13 $582,079
#ME02 $548,414
#NY22 $498,339
#RI02 $486,313
#MN02 $472,556
#VA02 $405,567
#FL27 $393,568
#OH01 $343,088
#AZ06 $329,402
#CA45 $294,819
#NE02 $259,178
#MI07 $249,885
#NY18 $222,852

Read 5 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1585465157441814528

Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1585465157441814528

*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.

Tonight's HMP buys (1/3)

#NJ05 $1,959,458
#PA07 $1,720,125
#MI07 $1,507,533
#VA07 $1,284,208
#TX28 $1,259,722
#CA13 $1,206,064
#NH01 $1,196,950
#MN02 $1,176,281
#IL17 $958,645
#IN01 $953,087
#PA17 $915,645
#NV01 $887,864
#NY19 $846,081
#WA08 $813,814
#OH13 $795,000

Read 6 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1585404729420488705

There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1585404729420488705

Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07$1,499,784
#ME02$1,350,223
#MN02$1,250,208
#OH13$1,009,066
#CA22$941,557
#PA08$894,614
#PA17$846,908
#TX28$825,989
#NH01$815,750
#CA27$780,526
#WA08$724,356
#NY22$721,327
#CA45$645,465
#VA07$590,931
#NY19$563,935

Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17$527,193
#NM02$518,428
#PA07$505,183
#RI02$491,255
#IL17$490,579
#NE02$459,022
#AZ06$458,425
#IA03$421,218
#TX34$408,778
#CT05$401,871
#VA02$370,614
#NJ07$333,561
#MI08$320,974
#WI03$62,744
#CO08$28,296
#PA12$9,200

Read 4 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1583287245347250176

The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1583287245347250176

Today's HMP buys (1/3)

#NV01 $1,409,339
#NV04 $1,085,708
#NV03 $1,063,115
#CA22 $1,058,595
#NH01 $1,037,920
#NY19 $961,780
#TX28 $929,827
#OH13 $870,198
#MN02 $739,191
#WA08 $738,334
#IN01 $686,882
#KS03 $646,562
#CO08 $590,088
#OR06 $587,541
#NY22 $491,388
#TX34 $460,863

Today's HMP buys (2/3)

#OH01 $459,646
#CA49 $436,650
#RI02 $409,455
#PA17 $379,011
#NC01 $345,232
#NE02 $312,778
#GA02 $210,676
#OH09 $205,321
#NJ07 $171,807
#IA03 $164,363
#IL13 $158,950
#CA13 $123,963
#MI08 $116,751
#VA07 $105,000
#NY03 $91,071
#AZ04 $86,070
#MI07 $58,083

Read 4 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

@NRCC

The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.

It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1582768648187281412

Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#ME02 $1,348,132
#OH13 $1,228,652
#MN02 $1,090,377
#CA22 $973,825
#WA08 $876,994
#PA17 $848,163
#NH01 $787,150
#CA27 $782,726
#CA45 $778,488
#PA07 $690,861
#NY19 $615,810
#PA08 $572,138
#IA03 $528,673
#NM02 $521,473
#AZ06 $459,696
#NE02 $440,622

Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NJ07 $361,411
#MI08 $305,405
#WI03 $302,698
#TX28 $149,853
#TX15 $142,658
#NY17 $112,060
#VA07 $93,710

Read 4 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.

CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…

Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.

Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,429,474
#NV01 $1,422,146
#PA07 $1,047,124
#NJ07 $901,401
#CO08 $881,835
#CA47 $841,483
#OR05 $821,203
#IL17 $726,494
#FL27 $651,174
#MN02 $650,074
#NY19 $646,069
#VA07 $631,866
#CA13 $629,151
#MI07 $618,935
#TX28 $616,752
#CA22 $604,211

Read 5 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1580732909685571586

The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.

HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1580732909685571586

Today's HMP buys (1/2)

#NV01 $1,121,509
#CA22 $995,205
#CA49 $896,348
#NV03 $859,247
#NV04 $809,496
#IN01 $683,122
#NH01 $538,117
#CT05 $529,755
#PA17 $462,496
#NC01 $348,908
#MI03 $317,726
#NE02 $219,314
#IL13 $176,899
#NJ07 $171,807
#OH09 $126,225
#CA13 $123,443
#MI08 $86,833

Today's HMP buys (2/2)

#AZ04 $49,500
#IL17 $49,100
#PA08 $45,854
#NY03 $45,221
#VA07 $45,000
#CO07 $44,534
#RI02 $43,500
#MN02 $40,000
#WA08 $39,318
#OH13 $39,000
#NY22 $38,750
#MI07 $31,000
#VA02 $27,846
#NY19 $23,333
#PA07 $18,333
#ME02 $16,732
#OR06 $15,000

Read 4 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.

docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…

@CLFSuperPAC

32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.

@CLFSuperPAC

Today's @CLFSuperPAC buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,494,562
#NV01 $1,181,949
#PA07 $1,022,681
#NH01 $981,150
#CO08 $934,807
#OR05 $773,033
#IN01 $740,075
#IL17 $711,513
#MN02 $684,808
#CA13 $678,224
#VA07 $663,140
#MI07 $644,028
#TX34 $615,633
#CA49 $584,838
#OH13 $565,159
#NY19 $553,155

Read 6 tweets

Rob Pyers

@rpyers

@dccc

A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.

The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.

Today's DCCC buys (1/3)

#MI07 $1,023,595
#WA08 $914,082
#CA13 $887,013
#TX28 $877,736
#PA07 $822,504
#VA07 $738,010
#CO08 $724,286
#NC01 $678,431
#NH01 $670,977
#OH13 $624,694
#MN02 $603,123
#NY19 $578,924
#GA02 $577,265
#AZ04 $574,484
#OR05 $568,706

Today's DCCC buys (2/3)

#IL17 $564,045
#OH01 $562,891
#OR06 $517,844
#PA17 $515,834
#VA02 $491,375
#MI03 $474,695
#NY22 $434,336
#MI08 $426,641
#KS03 $406,528
#NM02 $356,148
#PA08 $324,212
#IA03 $202,940
#NV03 $192,497
#OR04 $189,071
#NV01 $174,997
#CA49 $59,999

Read 6 tweets

TrumpsTaxes

@TrumpsTaxes

Did you know that:

A) There is a House GOP bill called 'The Life at Conception Act' (H.R. 1011) - also known as a 'personhood' bill - that would declare life as starting at ‘the moment of fertilization'?

B) Of its 166 co-sponsors, many are running in very close races?

🧵👇

@CheriBeasleyNC

Co-sponsor: TED BUDD

Race: #NCSen

Democratic opponent: CHERI BEASLEY (@CheriBeasleyNC)

Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/beasley…

@ChristySmithCA

Co-sponsor: MIKE GARCIA

Race: #CA27

Democratic opponent: CHRISTY SMITH (@ChristySmithCA)

Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_we…

Read 14 tweets

TrumpsTaxes

@TrumpsTaxes

🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨

The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣

5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.

3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.

🧵👇

@VoteVicente

Race: #TX34

Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)

Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores

2020 Margin: Biden +15.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…

@RudySalasCA

Race: #CA22

Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)

Republican: Rep. David Valadao

2020 Margin: Biden +13.1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…

Read 31 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

House special election results since start of June:

#CA22 (6/7, Trump +5): R+24
#TX34 (6/14, Biden +4): R+5
------(Dobbs)-------
#NE01 (6/28, Trump +11): R+5
#MN01 (8/9, Trump +10): R+4
#NY19 (8/23, Biden +2): D+2
#NY23 (8/23, Trump +11): R+7

But the caution flag on Dem overperformance? These have all been low-turnout specials decided by a fraction of November's likely electorate.

Here's special election votes as a % of total 2020 votes cast:

#CA22: 37%
#TX34: 14%
#NE01: 38%
#MN01: 32%
#NY19: 36%
#NY23: 23%

For context: last November, when Rs massively outperformed in NJ/VA, here was the turnout as a % of total 2020 votes cast:

NJ: 58%
VA: 74%

This isn't to say the enviro hasn't improved for Dems. It has. But specials can't tell us extent of improvement w/ the fuller electorate.

Read 3 tweets

Kirk A. Bado

@kirk_bado

Big shakeup in DCCC's House battlefield this AM. The committee named 12 challengers to its "Red to Blue" program, added 3 members to its "Frontline" program, added 8 new GOP/Dem districts to its "In Play" list, and removed 6 GOP-held districts from its target list.

@RudySalasCA

Red to Blue challengers:
#CA22: @RudySalasCA
#CA45: @jfchen
#CO07: @pettersen4co
#IA01: @BohannanIowa
#IA02: @LizMathis1
#IL13: @Nikki4Congress
#MI03: @HillaryScholten
#NM02: @Gabe_NM
#NY01: @VoteJackie4NY
#NY11: @MaxRose4NY
#OH01: @votelandsman
#OH13: @EmiliaSykesOH

@KathyManningNC

New Frontline members:
#NC06: @KathyManningNC
#CT02: @RepJoeCourtney
#PA06: @HoulahanForPa

Read 5 tweets

Melanie🇺🇸

@melajessi_1

NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022

@abbybroyles

@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector

@AnnieAndrewsMD

@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10

Read 38 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

NEW: the first official draft map from California's commission is here, and it's both a major shakeup and a mixed bag for the parties. Early read: it could perform quite well for Rs in 2022, but offer longer-term upside for Dems. Read on... wedrawthelinesca.org/draft_maps

First, the five biggest "losers" in this draft (which will change before 12/27):

#CA10 Harder (D) - Biden +3 to Trump +10
#CA22 Nunes (R) - Trump +5 to Biden +9
#CA40 Roybal-Allard (D) - seat eliminated
#CA48 Steel (R) - Biden +2 to +9
#CA50 Issa (R) - Trump +8 to Biden +1

Next, other "losers" who would be at heightened risk:

#CA04 McClintock (R) - Trump +10 to +5
#CA25 Garcia (R) - Biden +10 to +13
#CA42 Calvert (R) - Trump +7 to Tied
#CA45 Porter (D) - Biden +11 to +4
#CA49 Levin (D) - Biden +13 to +9
#CA53 Jacobs (D) - Biden +36 to +8

Read 5 tweets

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