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Elijah J. Magnier @ejmalrai
, 3 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Asking the Syrians gov not to retake Syrian territory and advertising for a "terrible civilian toll" is a deja vu. A ridiculous anti-Syria report by @crisisgroup.
De-confliction never included #ISIS and #AQ.

Keeping the Calm in Southern Syria crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
Watch all the "sensitive" analysts now turning in direction of southern #Syria (never #Yemen of course): whenever the Syrian Army wants to recover the control of territories under #ISIS #AQ or their Jihadists allies, the same old story starts picking up.

Prepare yourself for south #Syria ops: "Chemical attacks", "last doctor", "Last Hospital", "hundred thousands under siege and without food for medicine".

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#ISIS #AQ #Syria #Yemen

More from @ejmalrai see all

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Ex-Nusra (#AQ rebranded HTS) walked into its own death by taking a large territory in #Idlib and its surrounding. The defeat of large groups like Ahrar and Souqourv al-Sham (who showed little resistance) and the elimination of Zinki group will have deadly consequences on AQ.+
No doubt #Turkey asked Ahrar et al to stand down & avoid fighting (for now). It means #Ankara would be happy to see the end of its presence in #Idlib on the long term. For this, Erdogan needs to see a very large battle taking place first in the north between these groups and #AQ
Erdogan & Putin will have a meeting soon to discuss the #Kurds and #AQ in #Idlib. I expect hot spring in Idlib and a large offensive against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Abu Mohammad al Joulani's ambition (from ex-ISIS emir to AQ Emir to ruler of Idlib) is helping to end this phenomena.
Read 6 tweets
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I can only see positiveness in the expansion of al-Qaeda in #Syria. The more cities and villages it controls, the faster it will lose.

#AQ in Syria is trying to earn the heart and minds of the locals but it is trying to full up their pockets. This group has learned nothing.
Today I am very confident & much more positive that #Turkey will not occupy north of #Syria and will not stay in the territory it occupies today for ever.

@RT_Erdogan is confirming his strategic relationship with #Russia & #Iran is more precious than #USA
#AQ was planning long ago to expand its control. #Turkey rejected Joulani's wishes for very long. By accepting or closing an eye on the ex-#ISIS Emir, i.e. Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, #Turkey has found the best way to liberate itself from al-Qaeda's burden.
Read 4 tweets
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Hay'yan, Anadan & Haritan under Jihadists of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham Led by Abu Mohammad al-Joulani, the ex #ISIS officer, the ex-al Qaeda in the Levant and the actual leader of a large number of foreign fighters.

Joulani is taking position opposite #SAA.

google.com/maps/place/Hra…
Rural and the city of #Idlib, the rural area of #idlib, #Aleppo & #Hama are under Jihadists control. Is it time for the Syrian army, supported by #Russia to stop the jihadists advance if #Turkey is incapable of doing the job it has promised at #Astana?

#Turkey is embarrassed by Jihadists overwhelming control of most of the #Astana area of control. Joulani is forcing his place on #Ankara unless the Turkish army moves in to defeat him, or to steps aside and allows the #Syrian army to do the job.
Read 6 tweets

Related threads

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#Breaking #Syria
#Erdogan said that #Turkey will start Eastern Euphrates operation against #YPG within days but #US soldiers will not be targeted.
#Breaking #Syria #OperationEasternEuphrates
#Turkey and #FSA will aim at taking control of the towns of Tal Abyad (Gire Spi) and Sere Kaniye.
#Syria #OperationEasternEuphrates
The #US released a statement about #Turkish threats: "Unilateral military action into northeast Syria by any party, particularly as US personnel may be present or in the vicinity, is of grave concern. We would find any such actions unacceptable".
Read 67 tweets
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#Syria Update

1-State: Feels it won but seems lacking in credible economic solutions going forward.
2- Opposition: Still dazed, confused & seemingly delusional about its ability to gain through politics what it failed to do militarily
3-Kurds: Hit pause button. Wait & see mode
#Syria update Continued:

Foreign Actors: The U.S is going nowhere anytime soon. Keep territory given limited financial burden. Continue the balancing act between Ankara and the Kurds. Appease the pro-Israel / Anti-Iran camp. Strategy Archives multiple goals w limited investment
#Syria Update Continued:

Foreign Actors: Russia has met all originally set objectives. Damascus survived. Moscow is an important player in the region. Ability to maintain strong relationship with Ankara offers larger geopolitical opportunities
Read 8 tweets
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In the latest @CrisisGroup report, issued today, we highlight the dangerous situation brewing in southern #Syria: "Keeping the Calm in Southern Syria". bit.ly/2ytOoQl What's new, why does it matter, and what should be done? Thread.
Having retaken the last rebel-held areas in Syria’s western interior, the regime is turning south. Its forces are massing in preparation for a reconquest of the “de-escalation” zone in the southwest, which is protected by a trilateral agreement between Russia, the US and Jordan.
The SW sits at the intersection of Jordan and the Israeli-occupied Golan. An offensive to reconquer it could take a terrible civilian toll, destabilise Jordan, and trigger a wider conflict between Israel and Iran, especially if the regime seeks the help of Iran-backed militias.
Read 4 tweets

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