Thread by @ambassadorbrief

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

Russian aggression in Asia: Per CNN, “South Korean fighter jets fired [more than 300] warning shots at a Russian military aircraft Tuesday after it violated the country's airspace”. Chinese aircraft were also present.

CNN continued “what triggered the confrontation…is unclear” but one theory is that the Russian mission was to draw out South Korean air defences – giving the Russians valuable intelligence on how the South Koreans respond to threats.

.@ALanoszka wryly noted that the incident undermined the theory that NATO expansion is to blame for Russian aggression in Europe: “if only NATO had not expanded into northeast Asia, then Russia would not have felt the need to violate South Korea's airspace”.

Lanoszka also praised South Korea’s robust response. “If you want to eliminate so-called 'gray zone' provocations and other salami [slicing] tactics, then the best course of action requires a forceful response. Otherwise, more bullying will occur and respect will be lost”.

Kim’s dirty dozen: per the WSJ “over the past year, there have been handshakes, compliments and extravagant photo-ops—in Singapore, in Hanoi and even at the demilitarized zone”. But Kim has used that time to expand his arsenal by about twelve nuclear weapons.

.@WonkVJ argued “this is why, since 2018, I've urged all of us to take a breath, and remember that the standard for progress or a more stable situation in Korea isn't handshakes and declarations, but rather the number, location, and operationality of nukes and missiles”.

PM Boris Johnson: @A_Sloat argued that “he faces the same [Brexit] challenges as [May]: EU leaders are unwilling to renegotiate the withdrawal agreement & the British Parliament lacks majority support for any single option”. As a result, an early election is “highly likely”.

Sloat continued, this early election could be triggered by (i) a no confidence vote if Johnson pursues no deal, or (ii) Johnson trying to improve his Parliamentary arithmetic. Further, under Boris, a deal is “extremely unlikely” & no deal’s prospects have “increased considerably”

Three thought-provoking articles:

Peter Jennings outlined some of the issues with banking on the “inevitable” rise of China: “China is also a country which for the last century & a half has reliably imploded every generation to reshape its political system, usually at the cost of millions of Chinese lives”.

He continued: “no one could dismiss the possibility that such an internal convulsion could happen again. Further, China is surrounded by a bunch of [powerful] countries…that are simply not going to roll over for a tummy rub while bowing to inevitable Chinese greatness”.

.@MaloneySuzanne argued that “Iran’s threats are an attempt to negotiate…By ratcheting up tensions, Iran is hoping to expand the crisis with the United States, force a dialogue, and hopefully find their way out of an increasingly dire set of circumstances”.

She continued, “Tehran’s provocations in the Gulf, if you look past the breathless headlines, can be seen as a crucial part of their good cop-bad cop negotiating strategy—one that reinforces persuasion with intimidation”.

.@dandrezner argued that the hardening US elite consensus on China scares him as: (i) most China hawks are overestimating China’s relative power (ii) hawks underestimate the costs of their hawkery: (e.g. 90% fall in Chinese foreign investment in US since Trump took office).

He continued: (iii) if you genuinely believe China is a peer equal, then the US needs to be rallying allies, and the Trump admin is “doing the exact opposite of that” & (iv) supporters of engaging with China haven’t effectively articulated its benefits, past or future.

Three events to watch in the near-future:

US-China trade talks: per Stratfor “the weight of the global economy will be on the shoulders of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin when they arrive in Shanghai on July 29 for the first high-level talks since the June G-20”.

Stratfor continued, a notable Chinese inclusion is Commerce Minister Zhong Shan. He has driven “a harder line by Beijing” – inc. “complete tariff removal as part of a deal & firm guarantees on relaxing Huawei export restrictions before China resumes [US] agricultural purchases”.

Navalny poisoning: per @Billbrowder, “It’s looking more and more like [Russian opposition leader] Alexei Navalny, Putin’s most fierce critic has been poisoned with “undefined chemical substances”. Per Meduza, Navalny is suffering from “discharge, itching, and lesions”.

The poisoning news came amidst a brutal Russian crackdown on pro-democracy protests. Per the AP, nearly 1,400 Russians were arrested for protesting the inability of independent candidates to run in local elections – the highest number of arrests at a Moscow protest in a decade.

.@Kasparov63 argued that “Putin's machine of internal repression is very strong today, made infinitely stronger by the weak international pressure over his war crimes & human rights abuses. But history shows that dictatorships have crystalline structures, strong but brittle”.

Hong Kong: Per the NYT “China's patience with protests in Hong Kong appears to be wearing out, warning of possible use of the PLA garrison there. A new defense strategy released on Wednesday declared separatism as the country's most immediate threat”.

.@mikehfuchs argued that “the world should wake up to [what is happening in Hong Kong] and the chances that we see another Tiananmen massacre”. @austinramzy called the development “ominous”, but noted that “this knife has always hung over Hong Kong.”

Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking, retweeting, and spreading the word! We are continually humbled by the following we are gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors