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I don't get this fixation on "Obama-Trump" voters. They're like 2% of the voting population & have tended to take the more populist-seeming pick. Will more testimonials convince Dems of what @DrJasonJohnson @TiffanyDCross @MariaTeresa1 @K_JeanPierre & I have been saying for 3yrs?
Even with a lot of healthy skepticism among data experts on people's self-reporting of their past votes, we're talking at most about 8.4 million or so "Obama-Trump" voters (w/ the significance of that number cut by abt 2.5 million "Romney-Clinton" voters. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Add to that the research strongly suggesting that racial resentment, hostility to (brown) immigration and sexism/hostility to the idea of a woman president were primary motivators for these voters, it should be clear that they are lost to the Democrats. vox.com/policy-and-pol…
So what should Democrats do about that? Well... the reason Barack Obama became President Obama was because he 1) excited a whole lot of people about him becoming president and 2) registered a ton of new voters who then voted to make him president. Registration + motivation = win
And Democrats, you need to hear this. Trump excited a lot of people too *who were already registered to vote*-about HIM being president. And his promises: the idea of evicting immigrants and Muslims, checking women, slowing social change & going hard on China, STILL excite them.
You can't have those voters back, Democrats. Sorry - I know they remind you of the Pabst Blue Ribbon commercials you used to watch as a kid but they belong to Trump now. But you can win, the same way B Obama did; and the way Bill Clinton did (thanks to Jesse Jackson's voter reg).
Simply nominate a ticket people can get excited about, register a ton of new voters and do the ground work to turn them out. And now knowing what you know about your slippage with WWC voters, focus on NEW voters in the key states you need for the Electoral College AND nationwide.
I worked for two presidential campaign -level organizations, just on the press side-in 2004 and 2008. You know what the differences were? Excitement (apologies to John Kerry who seems brilliant but people weren't excited) and voter registration.
When people are "meh" on both candidates, or there are doubts about both, the winner tends to be the one who gains the most from negative energy. Bush gained from war partisanship and nerves. Obama won on an enthusiasm wave.
That's why the Russian-Wikileaks strategy in 2016, and the "Get the Bidens" Trump strategy now, was-is to so dirty up the Democrat that people shrug it off as a "lesser of 2 evils" race. Dems rarely win "LO2E" races because Rs are much better at converting "meh" to anger & fear.
But Democrats have a hidden advantage that for some reason they just won't use: the 100 million or so voters who didn't vote at all in 2016, and who demographically read as Democrats. washingtonpost.com/news/politics/…
Why don't they vote? Work/time constraints, a sense of futility, voter suppression... lots of reasons. But these voters are far more numerous than Obama-Trump voters and folks like them have come off the bench before to put Democrats in the White House. Maybe go see about them?
And that is the end of my Ted Talk!
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