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Lets talk about #Oil and the #Corona / #COVID19 #Virus. What is it doing to #Global #Energy #Demand & what does it mean for #OPEC?
On March 5th 2020, the Organisation of #Petroleum Exporting Countries #OPEC concluded its 178th Extraordinary meeting. Aside from Ecuador's withdrawal from OPEC, the #Oil #Cartel was hard pressed to fashion a response to the impact of #COVID19 on #Global oil #Demand...
It is no secret that the #global #oil #market is awash in oil. The glut in supply has seen, in the past, a collaboration of sorts between #OPEC & Non-OPEC (mainly #Russia) oil exporters to monitor supply & maintain output at "mutually profitable" levels...
Prior to #COVID19, #OPEC had to consider downside risks to #Global #Growth (and oil demand) that emanated (inter alia) from #Trade #Tensions between the world's two biggest economies. This not withstanding, COVID19 outbreak has added another downside risk to global oil demand...
To this end, the #OPEC statement from their 178th meeting was "generic" to say the least...yes, they noted the threats from #COVID19 and called for continued commitment to maintaining global #Oil supply at prescribed levels...
Be that as it may, the "easier said than done" statement rings true given what happened to the #Global #Oil #Price following the #OPEC 178th meeting. The so called "collaboration" between OPEC & Non-OPEC exporters I alluded to earlier has proven quite shaky...
To the point, #Russia (Non-OPEC) and #SaudiArabia (#OPEC) appear to be at loggerheads. Failure to arrive at a consensus on global #Oil supply (and #Price) has led prices of oil in free fall. "Putin said "Nyet" to MBS"...
In closing, the #CORONA / #COVID19 #Virus is adversely affecting global demand for #Oil. This will affect revenues of #Oil #Exporting countries. This should be coupled with a general lull in global economic activity that could spell a more depressed global #inflation level.
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moeti damane
@iamSANhedrin
If you've been following #Global #Capital #Markets, you'll have noted a significant rebound in some of the world's key stock market indices. This follows a "correction" in the wake of #COVID19. The rebound largely comes on the back of #CentralBank commitment to "lower for longer"
While #CentralBank commitment to "lower for longer" might help rally markets today, it is still imperative for us to consider the #Global #MonetaryPolicy #Toolbox and if policy makers will have enough space to "keep cutting" or providing "stimulus" moving forward.
Below are #CentralBank meeting dates for March 1st to 7th 2020. From this list, Banks that usually "move the needle" as it where, are Bank of #Australia & the Bank of #Canada. As it so happens, Bank of Australia cut policy rate by 25bps to 0.5% citing #COVID19 as downside risk.
Read 7 tweets
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moeti damane
@iamSANhedrin
Lets talk about the 1st meeting of #G20 #Finance Ministers and #CentralBank Governors. Specifically, lets talk about the short to medium term headwinds for global #Economic #Growth...
If you haven't been living under a rock, and you happen to be an avid scholar / practitioner in the world of #Global #Finance / #CentralBanking, then you know that the Group of 20 Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors met on the 22-23 Feb 2020 in #Riyadh, #SaudiArabia...
The 2020 #g20 meeting of finance ministers & central bank governors in #Riyadh brought together key #Fiscal and #Monetary #Policy makers to discuss, inter alia, what #Global #Economic #Growth prospects look like in the short to medium term...
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moeti damane
@iamSANhedrin
SAN presents #PeoplePOWER dropping 2020..!
The #PeoplePOWER project has 10 songs...
10. Strive (Black Girl) ft. DAMOLA
Read 15 tweets

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Elina Ribakova
@elinaribakova
A must read today on #oil from @IEA

Due #COVID they present 3 scenarios 2020 oil demand
Base case (demand picks up later in year): -90 kb/d
Low case (global measures fail to contain virus): -730 kb/d
High case (quickly contained): +480 kb/d iea.li/3aInnaf

1/
2/ global oil demand in 2020 falls to a trickle @IEA
3/ US production set to plateau even with their base case of $60 Brent. Further spending cuts are expected for 2020, with capital discipline remaining a priority.

This is way above the current levels of $30-$35 #oil with #OPEC failing to reach an agreement #OOTT
Read 5 tweets
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Elina Ribakova
@elinaribakova
For Russia an external shock from oil is not unlike one from sanctions.

That’s why it is so hard to disentangle the 2014 effect. Both dry up external/budget funding.

A thread on Russia’s macro.

1/ it is one of the few counties with fiscal and current account surpluses.
Thanks to the massive fiscal adjustment after the 2014 shocks of sanctions and lower oil. Look at the consolidated expenditure on the chart below.
As a result Russia’s fiscal break even price for oil went from $113 in 2013 to $49 in 2019.
Read 20 tweets
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LSMOH
@LSMOH
PRESS RELEASE

                       COVID-19: SUSPECTED CHINESE PATIENT TESTS NEGATIVE

The Chinese man who arrived Lagos yesterday aboard an Ethiopian Airline and suspected for COVID-19 has tested negative for the disease, Commissioner for Health, @ProfAkinAbayomi has said
@ProfAkinAbayomi who disclosed this today while giving an update on the management and control of COVID-19 outbreak in Lagos State said the patient who arrived yesterday aboard an Ethiopian Airline was taken into isolation after exhibiting symptoms of #COVIDー19.
According to him, samples were collected from the patient and the test which turned out negative was carried out the Lagos State Bio-security Level 3 laboratory located within the premises of the Mainland Hospital.
Read 11 tweets
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LSMOH
@LSMOH
PRESS RELEASE

#COVIDー19: REDDINGTON HOSPITAL PATIENT TESTS NEGATVE - LASG

@followlasg has said that the Chinese citizen who presented at the Reddington Hospital, Ikeja @ReddingtonLagos yesterday and suspected to have Corona virus has tested negative to the infection.
@ProfAkinAbayomi who made this known through a press statement noted that the likelyhood of #COVIDー19 infection in this particular patient was very low & the conclusion of investigations & sophisticated testing confirms that there is no case of Corona Virus in Lagos as of now.
“I would like to reassure Lagosians that our vigilance levels are very high and we are putting more measures in place to safe guard the State”, @ProfAkinAbayomi said.
Read 9 tweets
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Jason Bordoff
@JasonBordoff
THREAD: We wrapped @Davos #WEF19 today & I want to share my thoughts on the mood this year. Discussions focused on geopolitical & economic risks to the energy sector, #climatechange, optimism abt the pace & promise of technological innovation & outlook for clean energy.
Compared to 2018, the economic mood @Davos was more grim & subdued. Ongoing US-China trade dispute weighed heavily.. Many expect some resolution before March 2 deadline, but thorny issues in relationship will persist & China digging in for long-term. Brexit added to worries.
Last year’s lamenting by world leaders that the U.S. had withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement were replaced w/ deep concern that the U.S. has exited the world stage completely.
Read 28 tweets
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KirstyGogan
@kirstygogan
Today much of the world's population lives safer, more comfortable, healthier, longer, more productive lives than ever before. And yet, around half of the global population currently lacks access to enough electricity, and 1.2bn people have no access at all. #IPCC 1/n
Global electricity access is rising, which is improving the lives of millions. But this means our decarbonisation challenge is even greater, since we not only have to replace our entire fossil fuel infrastructure, but probably double it to meet rising global energy demand. #IPCC
The question is where will this energy to come from? A: Right now, mainly from #coal. #IPCC
Read 25 tweets

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