Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number12!

"Quiet, before the storm"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks

I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵
First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:

But let's start digging into this week, should we?
Last week we experienced a rally in #crypto with #Eth leading the way with a speculative date on the merge happening on September 19th.

BTC managed to rally breaking the trendline at resistance and the realized price, but failed to maintain those as support ImageImageImage
as per #onchain goes, last movement to to 24k (first target), that I managed to expect watching data from #technical #analysis: area of #volatility from #bollinger #bands and #trendline


Was sold by #humpbacks👇
This manipulation seems to come for the #options expiring on the 29th, and since we have less #speculators and a more #illiquid #market since the last downturns it turned out to be easier than expected I think

Anyway the underlying accumulation keeps building with #retailers that keeps stacking at a fast rate meanwhile #whales are slowly but flowly becoming #humpbacks

#Bull case where buy pressures will overwhelm exhausted sell pressure is still in play, let's see how much of pain the market can handle before gaining momentum.

With that said, it's more like useless to say that #macro will drive the markets
we already know we are in a #recession, and all precursors of a recession are in play, starting from an inverse #Yield #curve, a slowdown in the #housing market, a raising in #interest #rates all over the globe, sustained #inflation, supply chain issues and too much more

Charts ImageImageImageImage
This leads us to the very point of all of this analysis.

Where are we headed?

Well, standing all of this data, the next few days will bring volatility to the market, that seems incline to a #relief #rally taken in consideration #options on the #SP500 and the #VIX Image
Options on #bitcoin side seems to agree, but the problem is that #FOMC and #2QGDP are going to weight on the price action in the short term.

So my expectations are for the relief rally to start when the #FED will take its summer break, returning only on the end of september
Anyway I'm not a mage so this is pure speculation and you should take in consideration the unrolling of multiple factors that I, nor anyone else, can't predict.

Data shown above, and only data are reliable
On the front of #Natgas we had the reopening of the Nord Stream 1 in Europe, but in the next few days seems that Russia will reduce supply up to 40% for maintanance and Germany said that if this continues, 95% supply wouldn't be there for winter
#Oil prices staying high on the tail of an energy cost rising at the overall level, with #GOLD still in its nap momentum, probably waiting for #FOMC, and commodities like #copper in a low value zone that predicts somewhat of a #recession ImageImageImageImage
#DXY stronger today, with expectation of 75 to 100bps rate hikes are priced in the market

#EurUsd in the meantime keeps trending lower with expectations of the #YCC from the #TPI put in place from the #ECB being an instrument to print money and buy bonds of defaulting countries ImageImage
#BoJ is priced in to keep on their #YCC policy no matter what, and as of right now it seems they hold more than 70% of their 10y bonds supply.

The market seems to be more calm on that front, with sellers exhausted and 10y JGB YC going down

#JpyUsd remain silent as a consequence ImageImage
#SP500, #NDX and #DJI still trending lower since the last friday #PMI index came lower than the previous


#SP500 was anyway in a precarious situation, and I made that known to the members of the chainlog school, that was also a reason to stay out ImageImageImage
This is it for today.

next few days will be big, so expect #volatility

Another #storm is coming for the #markets.

Are you ready to withstand the flames and winds of the summer time tornado anon?
I do this kind of analysis everyday and with more indepth for the ChainLog Markets School

Anyway if you know someone who need help to understand the markets, and he's a newbie, I will be pleased if you advice my school. It's cheap and... well see yourself
If you liked the analysis share it to other people smashing a like, retweet and follow me here or on any other paltform, so I'll know you liked it

All the links you'll ever need from ChainLog

(Any views expressed in the above are the personal views of the authors and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

And they'll never be 🤓
This was an error, I copy pasted the old one to fasten the work and change only number and title, anyway I forgot to do that at the end cause my pc restarted for an energy problem and... well s**t happens.

We are at number 13

FOMC/2QGDP/OPTIONS, another storm is coming

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More from @ChainLogAnalyst

Jul 28
#Crypto friends

Did you know that there are pairs that should be valued more?

To witness the power of the crypto industry and the money making trading strategies we should first know that using #Bitcoin as the medium of exchange to buy other coins or tokens is the best

Why? 👇
Take into account for a second future expectations and price targets.

Most people in the crypto industry think a 1m #Bitcoin is possible.

So let's take that as it is.

In this case, a 10% made on a #BTC pair is actually worth 50x more (taking a 20k btc or 40x with a 25k one)
Plus, using #Bitcoin as medium of exchange helps us to get an hedge in FIAT debasement.

Doesn't really matter in the short term if the price go down 70% from ATH.

We got many Xs everytime the market rallied again.

Inflation is a costant k in an equation where BTC is the result
Read 5 tweets
Jul 25
Tomorrow a new market analysis will be out, followed by updates on the new macro data. This week will be huge.

meanwhile today I'm watching at something no one is looking at.

#Whales are accumulating they say.

A short thread 🧵

#onchain #BTC #Bitcoin Image
So let's take in consideration for a minute the fact that we can divide the cohort and call them as we want.

@glassnode divide the 2 cohorts we are gonna talk about today like this:

#Whale (1,000-5,000 BTC)
#Humpback (>5,000 BTC)
Meanwhile here we are looking at:
#Whale (1,000-10,000 BTC)
#Humpback (>10,000 BTC). ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Jul 21
#Tesla's #Bitcoin were sold OTC, were sold because they need their money back to hedge against their fear of recession and to appeal to investors in this period.

Do not be confused, that is strategy from a company. A bad one probably.

They invested what they couldn't afford to
lose, buying high and selling low.

They have their terms, obviously they have to mantain positive cash flow, and errors on the accounting and investing side are made more by centralized companies these days than "decentralized" ones.
When investing you shouldn't consider what other people are doing, but only what you should do based on your asset allocation, risk adjustment and investment strategies.

This is not a financial advice obviously

Anyway I don't think those #Bitcoin made any difference
Read 4 tweets
Jul 20
Today is an hot day, not only for temperatures, but also for economic data.

Follow me meanwhile I unroll all the new prints we had today

Super important thread on #inflation and the #housing #market

Lot of metrics to cover, get comfortable and get ready

🤓🧵 Image
#CPI prints:



#Canada YoY

#Canada MoM

Let's unpack it briefly
With a 9.4% UK finds itself on the firsts European (continent) Countries that are approaching double digits #inflation, and with the lack of haste in interventions on the #monetary #policies side, the #peak #inflation seems still far away. Let alone the MoM momentum, still high
Read 20 tweets
Jun 20
Every now and then I will make a #thread 🧵 of #threads 🧵 to keep you all updated on the #alpha I shared across time on #Twitter.

Today is the day. I don't know how long this will be.

Let's start with the previous threads🧵of threads🧵
Read 18 tweets

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