Thread by @ChainLogAnalyst

Ehi there #Crypto and #macro Twitter

Time for #market analysis #Number12!

"Quiet, before the storm"

I will explain here what happened since last week, and cover the broader #economy as it breaks

I will start from #onchain #BTC, going into #Technical Analysis + #macro🧵

First of all, if you want to have a deeper insight in what happened the week before, you should check my last #weekly #analysis

I'll put the link here for you:

https://twitter.com/ChainLogAnalyst/status/1549423174508478464?s=20&t=iiAUvlg1U8JEjO-ED_VPOQ

But let's start digging into this week, should we?

Last week we experienced a rally in #crypto with #Eth leading the way with a speculative date on the merge happening on September 19th.

BTC managed to rally breaking the trendline at resistance and the realized price, but failed to maintain those as support

as per #onchain goes, last movement to to 24k (first target), that I managed to expect watching data from #technical #analysis: area of #volatility from #bollinger #bands and #trendline

here

https://twitter.com/ChainLogAnalyst/status/1545094968599105536?s=20&t=DAl3MRzWmJfdgf8Un_Hd2A

Was sold by #humpbacks👇

putting in an overhead #resistance that led us to this #downtrend

https://twitter.com/ChainLogAnalyst/status/1551286569478283264?s=20&t=DAl3MRzWmJfdgf8Un_Hd2A

This manipulation seems to come for the #options expiring on the 29th, and since we have less #speculators and a more #illiquid #market since the last downturns it turned out to be easier than expected I think

https://twitter.com/ChainLogAnalyst/status/1551286572351373312?s=20&t=DAl3MRzWmJfdgf8Un_Hd2A

Anyway the underlying accumulation keeps building with #retailers that keeps stacking at a fast rate meanwhile #whales are slowly but flowly becoming #humpbacks

https://twitter.com/ChainLogAnalyst/status/1551629901526097921?s=20&t=DAl3MRzWmJfdgf8Un_Hd2A

#Bull case where buy pressures will overwhelm exhausted sell pressure is still in play, let's see how much of pain the market can handle before gaining momentum.

With that said, it's more like useless to say that #macro will drive the markets

we already know we are in a #recession, and all precursors of a recession are in play, starting from an inverse #Yield #curve, a slowdown in the #housing market, a raising in #interest #rates all over the globe, sustained #inflation, supply chain issues and too much more

Charts

This leads us to the very point of all of this analysis.

Where are we headed?

Well, standing all of this data, the next few days will bring volatility to the market, that seems incline to a #relief #rally taken in consideration #options on the #SP500 and the #VIX

Options on #bitcoin side seems to agree, but the problem is that #FOMC and #2QGDP are going to weight on the price action in the short term.

So my expectations are for the relief rally to start when the #FED will take its summer break, returning only on the end of september

Anyway I'm not a mage so this is pure speculation and you should take in consideration the unrolling of multiple factors that I, nor anyone else, can't predict.

Data shown above, and only data are reliable

On the front of #Natgas we had the reopening of the Nord Stream 1 in Europe, but in the next few days seems that Russia will reduce supply up to 40% for maintanance and Germany said that if this continues, 95% supply wouldn't be there for winter

#Oil prices staying high on the tail of an energy cost rising at the overall level, with #GOLD still in its nap momentum, probably waiting for #FOMC, and commodities like #copper in a low value zone that predicts somewhat of a #recession

#DXY stronger today, with expectation of 75 to 100bps rate hikes are priced in the market

#EurUsd in the meantime keeps trending lower with expectations of the #YCC from the #TPI put in place from the #ECB being an instrument to print money and buy bonds of defaulting countries

More about the #TPI here
ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/…

#BoJ is priced in to keep on their #YCC policy no matter what, and as of right now it seems they hold more than 70% of their 10y bonds supply.

The market seems to be more calm on that front, with sellers exhausted and 10y JGB YC going down

#JpyUsd remain silent as a consequence

#SP500, #NDX and #DJI still trending lower since the last friday #PMI index came lower than the previous

Actual
47.5
Previous
52.3

#SP500 was anyway in a precarious situation, and I made that known to the members of the chainlog school, that was also a reason to stay out

This is it for today.

next few days will be big, so expect #volatility

Another #storm is coming for the #markets.

Are you ready to withstand the flames and winds of the summer time tornado anon?

I do this kind of analysis everyday and with more indepth for the ChainLog Markets School
chainlog.info

Anyway if you know someone who need help to understand the markets, and he's a newbie, I will be pleased if you advice my school. It's cheap and... well see yourself

If you liked the analysis share it to other people smashing a like, retweet and follow me here or on any other paltform, so I'll know you liked it

All the links you'll ever need from ChainLog
linktr.ee/chainlog

Cheers!

(Any views expressed in the above are the personal views of the authors and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.)

And they'll never be 🤓

This was an error, I copy pasted the old one to fasten the work and change only number and title, anyway I forgot to do that at the end cause my pc restarted for an energy problem and... well s**t happens.

We are at number 13

Title
FOMC/2QGDP/OPTIONS, another storm is coming