Thread by @HenrikZeberg

Hope you enjoy the weekend! 😀Deflation unfolding in economy. Stay tuned for my view on market and coming macro developments #HZupdates

Short term we may see a bounce in #AUDUSD, as wave 2 develops - which sets us up for strong wave 3 down #HZupdates

#OIL develops in Ending Diagonal, which sets a target <20USD before LT-bottom. Again - we could pot. see that LT-bottom in around early Spring 2020. The period from now - until then is the #DEFLATIONARY phase of the crisis. This is where liquidity (USD) is scarce #HZupdates

Notice - it seems like we may see a small bounce in #OIL ST as wave E (of B) develops #HZupdates

The small bounce in #AUDUSD, #OIL and other pairs and commodities will be fueled by a ST weakness in #DXY. This is likely last decline of the "b" wave - which sets us up for face-ripping rally into Spring 2020 #HZupdates

#CRB Commodity index also develops in Ending Diagonal (like many commodity charts). This is a MAJOR pattern Ending Pattern, which ends the SECULAR downturn in INFLATION. When we have the LT-bottom in (around Spring 2020?) - ECONOMIC REGIME changes and...... #HZupdates

....CBs will no longer be able to do #QE for free. This is the end of the rope - where Monetary Policy has been played out fully. #STAGFLATION will likely begin at this point in time. Until then - #DEFLATION and liquidity shortage #HZupdates

The shortage of liquidity is clear in model provided by Demetra.dk. Cyclical development of Monetary Base (US
M2) is below equilibrium - and declining fast. This creates the environment, where deflationary developments and black swan events can occur #HZupdates

This aligns with the perspective on #SP500. Deflation unfolding in this early "Dash for Cash". We have likely seen first wave in SP500. Observe how 161% crosses Diagonal lower trend line around Spring 2020(again) ~level 2060 where we have strong support from 2016/17 #HZupdates

Dr. #Copper sends same bearish signal but addresses the outlook for the real economy. Copper has broken trendline and may set off on a long journey down towards target A or B. Notice - the bottom for Copper is further out in time. This tells me, that the economy....#HZupdates

....will continue to weaken DESPITE the LT-bottom in #Commodities (around Spring 2020). This is why I believe, that #STAGFLATION will set in at the next real entry of #Fed and CBs (forget rate cuts - think Helicopter money!) #HZupdates

As the Dash for Cash develops further, #PMs and #Gold will not perform well. (Yes - I was wrong about the triangle🙂 - but this does not disqualify the outlook). Gold will find LT-bottom following a strong decline to a level 890-970. This is 61.8% fib of wave A #HZupdates

NOTICE!! Top may either be around this current level ~1500 or pot. ~1590 (61.8% Fib). I said some months ago, that we needed Bulls to be super confident and all investors in Gold calling for new ATH.... well we have reached that point! Here overview from @joefriday_714 #HZupdates

@joefriday_714 And #Silver will also be crushed as the #Deflation develops. Lt-target remains ~bottom from 2008 #HZupdates

@joefriday_714 I wonder if #Bitcoin is shaping up a major triangle or Diagonal. This would put it in line with #Commodities. Will we see a decline to 4000-5000 before it takes off? It seems more and more like it behaves like Gold (in fact to some degree leading Gold price!) #HZupdates

@joefriday_714 The crisis in EU has begun - and it can be seen in #DAX. Broke trendline with force - after retesting SHS-neckline. I expect we will see strong declines soon (may retest break-out) #HZupdates

@joefriday_714 #DB still in the Ending Diagonal. It seems like it has retested consolidation area (small black line) and is now about to set off on major decline before the inevitable saving by German Government, EU, ECB. Again - bottom could align with the Spring 2020 timeline #HZupdates

@joefriday_714 That is all from #HZupdates today. Deflation unfolding - Cash is King until Fed steps in for real - maybe some time in the Spring of 2020! Stay safe!