My Authors
Read all threads
Good morning! Let's have an update on markets as it has now become very clear, that we are to see the #Deflation unfolding, which I have mentioned here for a long time. Why hasn't it really hurt yet - and what to expect? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I have shown my #Oil chart for a long time with Ending Diagonal. Since talks of oil >100USD - and during spikes in oil due to attacks in ME. All noise!! Structures drive price - and we are en route towards <20USD - perhaps as low as ~10USD for Oil. #Deflation unfolding!
I have shown #Deflation in #CRB chart. Broken lower trendline and now heading towards much lower levels to be reached this year! It will be a SECULAR BOTTOM - hence this is from where #STAGLFLATION will develop, as economy continues to plummet and prices begin to rise #HZupdates
Similar picture where-ever we look among #Commodities. This is #Sugar - also Ending Diagonal - telling us, that we are to seeing #Deflation unfold, before Secular Bottom and then rising prices (while economy slumps - from other charts) #HZupdates
Here #Wheat. Same unmistakable pattern! Ending Diagonal. Again and again! This is why I have been so persistent about coming #Deflation. Too many charts were pointing to this same outcome! #HZupdates
This is #Coffee. Bit different pattern - but Bearish ST. One last touch of lower trendline going decades back - down during deflation to SECULAR BOTTOM - and then much higher as secular inflation bottoms out - and prices start to rise LT in a new ECONOMIC REGIME.
All the #Commodity charts fit inflation gauge #AUDUSD. Inflation about to plummet. We are to see a decline down towards <0.5 as #Deflation unfolds. USD strength will be the main driver of the deflation
Some might argue "DXY has been dropping a lot last few weeks!". Yes - in a wave C of an ABC-structure. My earlier count has been updated - but conclusion is the same. #USD #DXY is to soar first to ~101 - then 105 and finally to 111 - all to be reached this year #HZupdates
#EURUSD has been spiking last couple of weeks - but as in #DXY I see this as a wave C before the great reversal and plunge towards LT-target ~0.85-0.90. I have adjusted target slightly as I had gotten the abc-structure a bit wrong #HZupdates
As #Deflation unfolds, we will see #Equities plunge. BUT - for the coming days/weeks, I think we may bounce to yellow area for a retest in wave II. Coming decline will be very strong and likely take us to ~2300 in 5 impulsive waves. Eventually Fed will enter for REAL #HZupdates
Some of you may remember my #VIX model, which I have also shown a number of times in relation to #SP500. Ending Diagonal - overshooting and then BOOM! I think I nailed the bottom on this one....? Observe the reaction from Ending Diagonal - and remember all Commodities....!😬😬
#Deflation and strong #USD will also impact #EmergingMarkets. We have seen sideways correction like late 2007- early 2008 and now price has broken below trendline. We are about to see Watershed moment. Crash as deflation unfolds. This will force #Fed back FOR REAL to weaken #USD
As #Oil has crashed by ~37% since start of January 2020, there can be little doubt, that inflation expectations are crashing at the moment. #Deflation! #Commodities and #Gold and #EmergingMarkets don't like Deflation. In 2008, Gold dropped ~33%. This time be experienced
#Silver has been more honest to the real outlooks for #Commodities and #Gold. #XAGUSD topped in 2016 - as it is correcting in an ABC (like I thought Gold would!!😬). The correction seems to be done and XAGUSD has started its journey towards ~8.4
And like #Silver, #Miners #GDX has not been supporting #Gold's wild ride up. Wait a moment.... I recognize that pattern....could it be like #Commodities...? Well - that would require Gold to follow #Silver and plunge in Deflation....! #HZupdates
And this is exactly what EW points out for #Gold. Rally since 2015 is a Bear Market Bounce which drives investors in on the wrong side of market before a plunge! And I mean Crash! Wave C will be relentless and longs will get annihilated. Ready for 45-50% loss during #Deflation?
We know, that inflation expectations are plummeting and yet Gold has wandered off. The real economic picture will dawn on #Gold, which has been rallying on what I can only define as a speculative #Bubble. Yes! Gold will eventually fly but not before SECULAR BOTTOM in #Commodities
And the above is only the inflation part. The "Liquidity Event" part, where everything is sold off to get #USD to pay back debt. Below #DeutscheBank. Outright scary chart! They will not invest in Gold - they will sell it to get liquidity! #HZupdates
And it is not just #DeutscheBank. It is the entire European Banking sector. See @RaoulGMI's Cliff of Death. The crash in Banking, that this chart implies, is going to require a LOT of USDs. And #Gold's finest task is to provide liquidity (USD), when none is to be found #HZupdates
As @PeterSchiff puts it. "This Financial Crisis is going to be much worse than 2008". I completely agree! BUT the #LiquidityEvent will front-run the Solvency Event. Hence I will eventually buy a LOT of #Gold but not while the liquidity event runs through economy during #Deflation
#Miners are the true gauges! Bottom later this yr. This is also where the most fantastic opportunity will arise after #Gold's crash. But - if you buy now you might see 50%-95% loss on your Miners before the final bottom is in. Timing is everything! And for is LONG #USD!
That is it! #Deflation incl. #LiquidityEvent before #SecularBottom in #Commodities as #Fed enters for REAL some time this yr. This pushes us into #Stagflation. So - Long #USD for now! Long #Gold and #Miners AFTER the crash during liquidity crash! STAY SAFE!! #HZupdates
@ThreadReaderApp unroll please!
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Henrik Zeberg

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!