Good morning! Let's have an update on markets as it has now become very clear, that we are to see the #Deflation unfolding, which I have mentioned here for a long time. Why hasn't it really hurt yet - and what to expect? Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I have shown my #Oil chart for a long time with Ending Diagonal. Since talks of oil >100USD - and during spikes in oil due to attacks in ME. All noise!! Structures drive price - and we are en route towards <20USD - perhaps as low as ~10USD for Oil. #Deflation unfolding! 
I have shown #Deflation in #CRB chart. Broken lower trendline and now heading towards much lower levels to be reached this year! It will be a SECULAR BOTTOM - hence this is from where #STAGLFLATION will develop, as economy continues to plummet and prices begin to rise #HZupdates
Similar picture where-ever we look among #Commodities. This is #Sugar - also Ending Diagonal - telling us, that we are to seeing #Deflation unfold, before Secular Bottom and then rising prices (while economy slumps - from other charts) #HZupdates
Here #Wheat. Same unmistakable pattern! Ending Diagonal. Again and again! This is why I have been so persistent about coming #Deflation. Too many charts were pointing to this same outcome! #HZupdates
This is #Coffee. Bit different pattern - but Bearish ST. One last touch of lower trendline going decades back - down during deflation to SECULAR BOTTOM - and then much higher as secular inflation bottoms out - and prices start to rise LT in a new ECONOMIC REGIME.
All the #Commodity charts fit inflation gauge #AUDUSD. Inflation about to plummet. We are to see a decline down towards <0.5 as #Deflation unfolds. USD strength will be the main driver of the deflation
Some might argue "DXY has been dropping a lot last few weeks!". Yes - in a wave C of an ABC-structure. My earlier count has been updated - but conclusion is the same. #USD #DXY is to soar first to ~101 - then 105 and finally to 111 - all to be reached this year #HZupdates
#EURUSD has been spiking last couple of weeks - but as in #DXY I see this as a wave C before the great reversal and plunge towards LT-target ~0.85-0.90. I have adjusted target slightly as I had gotten the abc-structure a bit wrong #HZupdates
As #Deflation unfolds, we will see #Equities plunge. BUT - for the coming days/weeks, I think we may bounce to yellow area for a retest in wave II. Coming decline will be very strong and likely take us to ~2300 in 5 impulsive waves. Eventually Fed will enter for REAL #HZupdates
#Deflation and strong #USD will also impact #EmergingMarkets. We have seen sideways correction like late 2007- early 2008 and now price has broken below trendline. We are about to see Watershed moment. Crash as deflation unfolds. This will force #Fed back FOR REAL to weaken #USD
As #Oil has crashed by ~37% since start of January 2020, there can be little doubt, that inflation expectations are crashing at the moment. #Deflation! #Commodities and #Gold and #EmergingMarkets don't like Deflation. In 2008, Gold dropped ~33%. This time by....to be experienced
#Silver has been more honest to the real outlooks for #Commodities and #Gold. #XAGUSD topped in 2016 - as it is correcting in an ABC (like I thought Gold would!!😬). The correction seems to be done and XAGUSD has started its journey towards ~8.4
And like #Silver, #Miners #GDX has not been supporting #Gold's wild ride up. Wait a moment.... I recognize that pattern....could it be like #Commodities...? Well - that would require Gold to follow #Silver and plunge in Deflation....! #HZupdates
And this is exactly what EW points out for #Gold. Rally since 2015 is a Bear Market Bounce which drives investors in on the wrong side of market before a plunge! And I mean Crash! Wave C will be relentless and longs will get annihilated. Ready for 45-50% loss during #Deflation?
We know, that inflation expectations are plummeting and yet Gold has wandered off. The real economic picture will dawn on #Gold, which has been rallying on what I can only define as a speculative #Bubble. Yes! Gold will eventually fly but not before SECULAR BOTTOM in #Commodities
And the above is only the inflation part. The "Liquidity Event" part, where everything is sold off to get #USD to pay back debt. Below #DeutscheBank. Outright scary chart! They will not invest in Gold - they will sell it to get liquidity! #HZupdates
And it is not just #DeutscheBank. It is the entire European Banking sector. See @RaoulGMI's Cliff of Death. The crash in Banking, that this chart implies, is going to require a LOT of USDs. And #Gold's finest task is to provide liquidity (USD), when none is to be found #HZupdates
As @PeterSchiff puts it. "This Financial Crisis is going to be much worse than 2008". I completely agree! BUT the #LiquidityEvent will front-run the Solvency Event. Hence I will eventually buy a LOT of #Gold but not while the liquidity event runs through economy during #Deflation
That is it! #Deflation incl. #LiquidityEvent before #SecularBottom in #Commodities as #Fed enters for REAL some time this yr. This pushes us into #Stagflation. So - Long #USD for now! Long #Gold and #Miners AFTER the crash during liquidity crash! STAY SAFE!! #HZupdates
@ThreadReaderApp unroll please!
