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Times / YouGov EXC Poll and MRP Model
*Tories wd (just) get working majority in an election today winning 321 seats. Lab lose 12 seats*
Tonight we reveal results of 40,119 YouGov poll of GB adults between 2-7 Feb...
... using MRP model to translate into seats
Tonight’s P1:
*Tories wd (just) get working majority in an election today winning 321 seats. Lab lose 12 seats*
Tonight we reveal results of 40,119 YouGov poll of GB adults between 2-7 Feb...
... using MRP model to translate into seats
Tonight’s P1:
Estimated seats result if there is an election today
(compared to 2017 GE result in brackets)
Tories 321 (up 4 from 317)
Labour 250 (down 12 from 362)
LD 16 (up 4 from 12)
UKIP 0 (0)
SNP 39 (up 4 from 35)
Green 1 (1)
PC 4 (4)
Other 2 (up 1 from 1)
(compared to 2017 GE result in brackets)
Tories 321 (up 4 from 317)
Labour 250 (down 12 from 362)
LD 16 (up 4 from 12)
UKIP 0 (0)
SNP 39 (up 4 from 35)
Green 1 (1)
PC 4 (4)
Other 2 (up 1 from 1)
YouGov / Times poll of 40,119
Tonight’s findings based on mega poll which MRP model uses to turn into seats.
Here r underlying % of GB vote share vs 2017 actual GB %
Con 39 (43)
Lab 34 (41)
LD 11 (8)
UKIP 5 (2)
Green 4 (2)
SNP 3 (3)
PC 1 (1)
Other 2 (1)
Rounded to nearest %
Tonight’s findings based on mega poll which MRP model uses to turn into seats.
Here r underlying % of GB vote share vs 2017 actual GB %
Con 39 (43)
Lab 34 (41)
LD 11 (8)
UKIP 5 (2)
Green 4 (2)
SNP 3 (3)
PC 1 (1)
Other 2 (1)
Rounded to nearest %
