Thread by @MENAanalyst

On the latest audio from top #ISIS leader Al-#Baghdadi: at first listen, the main themes: 1) showcasing ISIS expansion globally, by which uplifting the morale of the support base. 2) advising a more inclusive approach: softer Da'wa, justice, leniency, accepting others' repentance

The topic of upholding "justice" when dealing w/ "others," like those who were under ISIS rule, militants from other groups, or security forces members had created a severe backlash due to ISIS brutality. Baghdadi underscores a softer approach to attract highly needed recruits.

At the end of the audio, #Baghdadi points to the importance of accepting death over humiliation. IMO, #Baghdadi sounded enthused about expansion in West & Central Africa and operating globally, & dying for the cause didn't sound like "attack the West" but like "keep expanding."

This message highlights specifics in bigger #ISIS strategy as an organization: it's about expansion & recruits. Attacking the West is aspirational but not exactly motivational. It's more motivating for the support base to see the establishment of new "province" than a one off op