, 17 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
"Full" (all of two pages) advice from #CCAC to IE Government, endorsing continuing exploration for offshore natural gas: climatecouncil.ie/media/Climate%…
Extraordinarily weak "expert" contribution IMHO:
Explains that know reserves of coal alone, or oil alone would be enough to exceed remaining +1.5C CO2 budget; but natural gas alone would not. On this basis somehow argues that continued NG exploration is warranted...
... but that can only make even arithmetic sense if one assumes no further combustion of coal and oil (so that all CO2 budget becomes available for NG). As analysis, it is fundamentally incoherent.
"... if we are to decarbonise the Irish economy by 2050..." Incredible that #CCAC still peddling the conceit that “decarbonisation by 2050” represents an adequate or just climate mitigation response for wealthy, high per-capita emissions states. It simply doesn't.
Relies on trope that if the “world” achieves nett zero by 2050 we *might* (66% chance?) still limit the increase to 2C. This clearly falls short of <1.5C ambition, but more importantly...
... rich, industrialised states such as Ireland are committed, in good faith under #ParisAgreement, to "lead", i.e., to decarbonise significantly faster than the “global average”: so reaching nett-zero CO2 much sooner than 2050.
In effect, the #CCAC embeds a tacit and repugnant *political* premise (namely, a globally *unjust* transition) as a basis for its supposedly purely *scientific* advice.
And then: #CCAC say “This [natural gas + CCS] reflects the intermittent nature of renewable sources of electricity and the absence, to date, of a suitable alternative backup technology...”
But immediately go on to acknowledge: "... the development and deployment of CCS has been limited. Meanwhile, alternative energy storage systems, such as battery storage and synthetic gas production, have advanced rapidly." So which is a "suitable alternative backup technology"?
And don't get me started on genuine energy security... stopclimatechaos.ie/assets/files/p…
Yes, #CCAC attempt to immunise their advice (for continued natural gas exploration) by concluding that it should "kept under review": but this entirely overlooks asset stranding and diversion of capital from the genuinely urgent transition to non-fossil energy.
And, of course, the whole idea that exploration for offshore oil could be seriously disentangled from exploration for natural gas is utterly far-fetched anyway: irishtimes.com/business/marke…
Reform of #CCAC was already recommended in #JOCCA report. It does appear there is scope for significant improvement in diversity of expertise of Council itself and provision for open peer review of draft findings, analysis or advice.
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@threadreaderapp Oops - omitted the most blunt, but appropriate, hashtag: #HowDareYou! theguardian.com/environment/vi…
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