Thread by @benrileysmith

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Theresa May secretly considered plans to send up to 1,000 British troops into Syria.

Happened after Trump announced sudden withdrawal in Dec 2018. She feared the move benefitted Isil.

Summary thread below...
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

Have talked to more than a dozen UK and US officials - current and former - after learning about the plans.

This all played out in the frantic few days after Trump tweeted he was bringing US troops home on 19 Dec 2018 - the week before Christmas.

The plan considered was whether Britain and France could do a ‘like for like’ replacement of the US troops.

There were 2,000 Americans on the ground. Idea was to split ‘fifty-fifty’, so up to 1,000 troops each.

It would have been a major increase for Britain - way beyond the approx 150 SAS fighters we had there.

Would have involved not just SAS but ‘elite’ forces, such as Royal Marines and Parachute Regiment.

Driving May’s consideration was concern about leaving Isil fighters who hated Britain uncaptured.

“With her home secretary background she placed significant value on the counter-terrorist operations we were able to mount”

- source familiar w/ her thinking.

Planning was so sensitive that UK ministers with relevant briefs were kept in the dark.

Ben Wallace (then security minister) and Alistair Burt (then Middle East minister) understood to be unaware.

Discussions were with top defence / secruity / No 10 figures.

Discussions were spread over days, with plans seriously considered.

“It was properly thought about. It wasn’t just a one-off idea” - one UK source involved

“It wasn’t like we’re trying to develop a new strategy; it was trying to keep the old strategy alive” - another UK source

There were 2 big stumbling blocks...

First, we needed US air cover and logistical support. (US ability to watch from satellites + bomb with drones and jets is unparalleled).

It was essential. But UK figures - aware of Trump’s changes of heart - had their doubts.

Second, Parliament.

The plans involved not just SAS but elite forces, who would guard bases.

That meant getting MP approval - based on Blair/Iraq and Cameron/Syria precedent.

With no Commons majority and the Brexit battle raging, aides thought that looked unlikely.

The level of involvement with allies in planning is not known, but looks to have been limited.

Neither Pentagon or Élysée Palace commented. US defence sources pushed back on idea they were aware.

Ultimately May decided not to go ahead with the plans. And Trump, facing fierce backlash at home, quietly left 1,000 US troops in Syria.

(When he announced another withdrawal, in October, the Isil caliphate was gone and Boris was PM. Plans remained on the shelf).

So what? Significant for 2 reasons I think.

1) It shows how damaging we thought Trump’s withdrawal was to British interests.

2) It shows despite scars of Iraq / Afghanistan there is some appetite in UK gov for major troop deployments in Middle East.

Have done a longish colour read on how the whole thing played out if that’s your bag.
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

Or news write-up here: telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

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