1/8: #Ukraine thread. What does #Putin want? 1. Recast the post Cold War security structure of Europe, which he believes shames #Russia. 2. Integrate Ukraine into Russia. 3. Divide #NATO and weaken America..
2/8: 4. Entrench #Russian control in its near abroad, if necessary through force - as in Georgia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Crimea. 5. Buttress his domestic position, not with public opinion but in the political /military establishment.
3/8: On timing #Putin sees this as a moment of Western weakness & distraction. #US divided at home & damaged by Afghanistan. European unity weakened by #Brexit and differences in #EU. New SPD-led German coalition. #Macron facing re-election. UK government caught in scandal.
4/8: Little sign #Putin wants to negotiate at this stage. He made demands he knew #US & #NATO couldn’t accept, but kept the door ajar via Lavrov. He has three options: 1. Sit tight & maintain pressure on #Ukraine & West hoping to force concessions over time…
5/8: 2. Limited military action in eastern Ukraine to strengthen partition & ratchet up pressure - but at the cost of heavy sanctions. 3. Major action against #Kyiv to create a dramatic fait accompli, but with higher cost of international response & risks of long occupation.
6/8: Is negotiation possible? Perhaps around confidence building on NATO membership & force deployment on eastern flank; new forum on European security; arms control talks. But only if Russia, the aggressor, respects sovereignty & makes verifiable undertakings.
7/8: The #West should: 1. Continue #diplomacy while possible. 2. Prepare very strong, totally united responses proportionate to Russian action. 3. Arm / train #Ukraine and others. 4. Boost defence spending and NATO. 5. Avoid division and face reality.
8/8: We have to grasp how serious this is. #Putin threatens to redraw the map through violence in breach of treaties and sovereignty, in a way that would shatter the post Cold War settlement in Europe. That matters for all of us.
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