Thread by @emmevilla

(⛔️🚢BREAKING) EVERYONE GOES BACK. In July, 23% of #migrants departing from #Libya made it to Europe. This is the LOWEST share ever.

72% were caught and brought back.

5.2% died or went missing.

(⛔️🚢BREAKING) EVERYONE GOES BACK. Since July 16th, numbers paint an even starker (and somewhat different) picture.

99.5% of #migrants departing from #Libya were caught and brought back.

0.5% died or went missing (very few).

No one made it to Europe.

(🔴BREAKING) DEPARTURES FROM LIBYA ARE DOWN MARKEDLY. In June, about 6,900 migrants took to the sea from Libya's shores. This month, about 3,000 did: a 56% drop that is highly unusual during the Summer season.

(🔴BREAKING) LIBYAN COAST GUARD AT FULL STEAM. Activity by LCG continued to increase vs 2017 for second month in a row. But an understaffed and underequipped LCG will be under a lot of pressure in case departures start to increase again.

(🔴BREAKING) DEAD AND MISSING AT SEA - RISK STILL HIGH. Since June 1st, attempted crossings from #Libya have become riskier. Over the last two months, 6.1% died or went missing upon leaving Libya, more than double the average of 2.4% since 2017.

(🔴BREAKING) The absolute number of #migrants estimated to have died or gone missing upon leaving #Libya declined from 451 to 157.
Still higher than the average 97 dead and missing after the drop in departures since July last year, but not too far.

So, is the "strategy of total deterrence" working?

- Method: low / no search and rescue + higher risk of dying upon leaving #Libya ✅
- Aim 1: sharp decline in departures from #Libya + no-one makes it to Italy ✅
- Aim 2: keeping number of dead and missing low ⁉️

And what is the "strategy of total deterrence" disregarding?

- # of people trapped in #Libya's detention centres;
- risk of #AssoVentotto cases reoccurring (paradox of Libyan JRCC coordinating SAR while Libya not being place of safety);
- why focus on flows after July 2017 drop.

DATA.
The dataset is publicly available here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

It will be constantly updated over the next months.

Very small CORRECTION: I double counted the #AssoVentotto (#asso28) case. Once accounting for that:

24% of #migrants departing from #Libya made it to Europe. This is the LOWEST share ever.

71% were caught and brought back.

5.4% died or went missing. 👇