,
10 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
Merkel's speech in Munich has largely consisted of a summary of her foreign policy views: if we, the leaders of the world, understand our true interests, we can work out solutions together -- with the US of course, and even with difficult partners such as Russia and China. /1
A view that perfectly fits into a world with American leadership, the kind of world that existed when Merkel worked with George W. Bush and Obama. Yes there were disagreements, but there also was the understanding that by finding compromises, both sides would win. /2
It was also a world on the path to convergence. Ultimately Russia and China would become more like the liberal West, despite serious obstacles. Or at least their domestic autocratic constitution would still, somehow, be compatible with constructive international cooperation. /3
Merkel's view of international politics as far-reaching cooperation based on joint interests however is at odds with the new geopolitical landscape: the new paradigm of great power competition -- rather Hobbes than Locke. /4
In response to the the new paradigm, and the related breakdown of US-German relations, Merkel has reluctantly joined the chorus of those calling for "Europe" to become a more autonomous and more relevant actor, capable of playing in the global power league. /5
But it is significant that she didn't lay out a European path ahead in Munich: a roadmap towards more European unity and capability to act. Merkel is a realist, not a visionary. She apparently doesn't think that such a path towards Europe as a coherent power exists. /6
In Merkel's world, there is simply no alternative to US leadership, and to international cooperation. The new paradigm of great power competition is totally strange to hear: that is all 19th century stuff that doesn't fit into the globalized world of the 21s century. /7
Merkel's views are shaped by the 1990s: globalization, cooperation, spread of liberal democracy, under benign US leadership, transformation of the former communist world. Her aim is to keep as much as possible alive of that spirit and that reality. /8
Merkel's Munich speech was peppered with anger, directed towards Trump (which is what brought her plenty of applause). In Merkel's view, the US has the duty - and the interest! - to underwrite the liberal order with US power. For her, there is no plan B that can work. /9
Whether the US will let the liberal order fall apart and fully embrace great power competition as the new paradigm will be decided in the next years. Merkel's successor will have the task to design a new role for Germany in a new environment - beyond defending the status quo. /10
