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Let us talk about recent #Trends in #Global #Monetary #Policy, say, from 2015 to 2019...
Before I do that, let me give you an updated list of #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicyCommittee meetings for 2020...The matrix attached shows MPC dates for #CBL #SARB #FED and #ECB...
Surely we are conversant with the terms #dovish #hawkish #loose #tight #expansionary & #contractionary when it comes to #monetarypolicy jargon. What did the #global monetary policy landscape look like from 2015 to 2019? Was it loose or tight, expansionary or contractionary?
Its not only important to have a sense of what the likely policy stance #centralbanks will be in 2020. It is also beneficial to note what their decisions have looked like in the recent past...
The reason being, having a handle on the general theme of #global #monetarypolicy can give one a sense of where the global #businesscycle is (early, mid or late cycle). It also gives us an idea of the #policyspace they have moving forward & what the likely tools will be...
In this respect, using data from the #Global #Monetary #Policy Changes (GMPC) that tracks the policy decisions of 95 central banks around the world, this is what the policy stances looked like from 2015 to 2019...
2019: 17 #centralbanks #tightened monetary policy and 67 #eased, global net easing of 50
2018: 43 central banks tightened monetary policy and 32 eased, global net tightening of 11
2017: 28 central banks tightened monetary policy and 34 eased, global net easing of 6
2016: 29 #centralbanks #tightened monetary policy and 46 #eased, global net easing of 17
2015: 48 central banks tightened monetary policy and 34 eased, global net tightening of 14
From the statistics, we can confidently conclude that #global #monetarypolicy in 2019 was characterised by an abrupt U-turn at the start of the year from the general trend toward tightening in 2018...
If one considers the #Global #MonetaryPolicy #Tracker attached below, you will certainly be forgiven for concluding that the short to medium term could be characterised by a "lower for longer" kind of monetary policy environment, i.e., looser (more #accomodative) monetary policy
In closing, while we've tried to offer an abridged bird's eye view of most recent trends in #global #monetarypolicy, we have to remain mindful of its relationship with #fiscalpolicy. This will prove critical given global growth headwinds & a narrow monetary policy space.
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