Thread by @Peters_Glen

THREAD

The past decade of political failure on climate change has cost us.

In 2010, the world thought it had 30 years to halve global GHG emissions. Today, this must happen in ten years.

nature.com/articles/d4158…

2. It is worse: The proposed climate action by all countries is a long way from halving emissions by 2030, countries’ climate proposals will lead to a slight increase.

3. And it worse still: individual countries are not on track to achieve commitments that were insufficient from the outset and are now woefully inadequate.

4. The better news is that more countries, regions, cities and businesses are implementing the deep, rapid transformations that are urgently required.

The question is how to ramp up these activities fast enough to keep warming to less than 1.5 °C.

5. Since 2010 the gap between country pledges & collective goals has grown:
1. GHG emissions increased 14%
2. The goal has increased from 2°C to 1.5°C
3. Country pledges have been insufficient

6. Had serious climate action begun in 2010, the cuts required for 2°C would have been ~2%/yr up to 2030.

Now, the required cuts from 2020 are ~3%/yr for 2°C and 7%/yr for 1.5°C.

7. Since 2015, estimated global emissions in 2030 have decreased by only 3%. For the leading seven emitters, 2030 estimates have slightly decreased, flatlined or increased.

8. Some good news?

~76 countries or regions have net-zero emissions goals have been set or are being considered, these places account for ~20% of global GHG emission

9. Only 6 countries have pledged to stop fossil fuel exploitation and production, covering only 1% of global fossil fuel use.

10. 53 countries and 31 states and regions have explicitly committed to an emissions-free electricity sector, these account for ~18% of global electricity generation.

Some steel & cement companies are setting goals for zero emissions around 2050.

11. These few success stories must be scaled up.

Current action is consistent with ~3°C warming in 2100 (& increasing thereafter), but as moment & experience builds, this will help push future warming to lower & lower levels.

nature.com/articles/d4158…

12. The gap is so huge that governments, the private sector and communities need to switch into crisis mode, make their climate pledges more ambitious and focus on early and aggressive action.

[Read the full article for free nature.com/articles/d4158…]