Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Biotech

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I wasn't at #JPM2023, but here are some of the articles I read and announcements that caught my eye from the meeting and #biotech this week! Image
.@BiotechCH (previously on Clubhouse) had a great one hour roundup; you can listen to the recording here:
Read 9 tweets
If you're a #LifeSciences VC or #founder, read this first before #JPMorgan2023.

This 2011 paper by Santé has fresh relevance as the biotech bubble has burst, and old norms return.

Big funds (>$300M) will underperform B I G.

Key take aways. 👇 (1/9) 🧵…
No VC as of 2011 "larger than $750M ha[d] ever returned more than 2.0x to its LP investors.

Fewer than a dozen funds larger than $300M" had.

With #biotech IPOs now a memory (like the period analyzed in the 2011 paper), VCs won't be able to engineer quick $$$ returns.👇🧵
The "inescapable conclusion" from the 2011 data was that larger venture funds generally *under*perform smaller funds...

"despite the presumed advantages of track record and brand name that allowed them to raise such large pools of capital in the first place."

How can that be?🧵
Read 9 tweets
🧵 Here are 10 amazing things that happened this year in #biotech.🧬
1. A HER2 targeting antibody-drug conjugate's stellar data redefined how breast cancer is categorized and offers a new treatment option for a large percentage of those with breast cancer in the future.…
2. A GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist helped patients lose as much as 22.5% of their body weight in a weight loss study, potentially addressing one of society's biggest health problems.…
Read 11 tweets
🧵The greatest sign I see in this #biotech market is the deafening quiet. All those rock stars of the 2021 biotech bubble are now gone. Their podcasts are gone, their Youtube channels are gone, and their $400 subscription services are gone.
1/ The only people left talking about biotech are few and far between assuming they can even endure the myriads of scoffers and skeptics. See, real investors are not fair weather investors.
2/ They aren't pounding the table at the peaks and disappearing back to their day jobs in the crash. The real investors are hear every day. They are the ones picking up the pieces left behind.
Read 11 tweets
885 of all small molecule drugs pass the rule-of-five test; of these, 619 (70%) are actually dosed orally, whereas 159 (20%) of orally dosed drugs fail at least one of the rule-of-five parameters
-John P Overington, Bissan Al-Lazikani and Andrew L Hopkins…
@johnpoverington et al determine that all current drugs with a known mode-of-action act through 324 distinct molecular drug targets. 266 are human-genome-derived proteins, and the remainder are bacterial, viral, fungal or other pathogenic organism targets…
Small molecule drugs modulate 248 proteins, of which 207 are targets encoded by the human genome. Oral #smallmolecule drugs target 227 molecular targets, of which 186 are human
-@johnpoverington, Bissan Al-Lazikani, Andrew Hopkins…
Read 14 tweets
#Genetics #biotech

Transhumanism future horror

"Our ELITE package offers you the opportunity to genetically engineer the embryo before implanting it into the artificial womb"

(CRISPR-Cas9: since 2008)

As soon as they can, they DEFINITELY WILL.…
humans playing God will only end in hell on Earth.

Read 10 tweets
With solar names like $ENPH & $FSLR not looking great, who will be leaders of the next bull market?

One group in particular has been showing ALL the signs of leaders

I'll dive into this group in the thread below

As @markminervini notes in his book, Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard, superperformance stocks very often come from 1 of 4 groups, and it seems like the potential leaders of the next bull market will be consistent with that model:

Drugs/medical/biotech $XBI $XPH

Why this group?
See the breakdown of the 99 RS names according to @MarketSmith below as of about 2 PM EST today

Over 1/3 of the top percentile of stocks in the market are in the biotech group (!!).

This group is overflowing with potential key leaders for the next bull market... so which ones?
Read 12 tweets

Some quick thoughts expressed as a 🧵👇🏼
2/ Investing in biotech stocks can be a great way to potentially earn high returns, but it also carries a high level of risk.
3/ Biotech companies often invest heavily in research and development, and their success or failure can hinge on the success of a single product or clinical trial.
Read 8 tweets
🧵 My “One Thread to Rule Them All” for $BEAM

Attempting to estimate revenues ‘til 2031

⚠️ Warning: This is VERY long

Figures are “Blue Sky Scenario”

At the end I’ll throw in more conservative estimates

🚨 If you love BEAM or #GeneEditing + #CRISPR be sure to LIKE & RETWEET!

Approval: 1H 2027

Wave 1 Market: 25k US/14k EU

Market in 4 years: ~27k total ($CRSP/$BLUE)

Cost: ~2m

27’: 500 patients= 1b
28’: 2000 patients= 4b
29’: 1b (ESCAPE looming)
30’: zero
31’: zero

IND: Approved Today! 😊

Approval: mid 2027

Price: $375k (Wedbush)

Market is small, so little effect on revenue.

Success IMO will unlock hidden value. I see multiplex editing as a big weapon vs. cancer in 2030 and beyond!
Read 26 tweets
🧵When resources are limited, the question of what knowledge is needed and when — the ‘decision gate’ analogy — becomes the principal strategic consideration in determining the priority of activities during early drug development
@NatRevDrugDisc #biotech…
Evidence showing ligands & receptors to be variable and discerning instigators of signals, and translators of information, respectively, have illustrated the fallacy of assuming that the surrogate host cell is an inert vessel-Terry Kenakin @NatRevDrugDisc…
Stepping back from the rather safe HTS paradigm to discovery in virtual space which is still not yet fully developed, certainly needs courageous management decisions not only in terms of financial investments, but also in organizational evolution @Aalanine…
Read 32 tweets
In #TechBio news, a post on the definition of TechBio as found in the first Google search hit I found, followed by a possible alt definitions stemming from the comparison of the terms #techbio and #biotech Dx/Tx:…
Definition: "TechBio is the direct application of engineering to biology".
"[...] applying an engineering mindset to solving biological problems means we can still work with limited information. We see TechBio as being concerned with four main components:
1. Reading bio — understanding genetic information (DNA, RNA, proteins, etc.) ex: next-gen sequencing
2. Writing bio — synthesizing DNA, RNA, and protein constructs. ex: creating custom DNA oligonucleotides
Read 10 tweets
An Israeli biotech company, Renewal Bio that recently created mouse embryos using stem cells, has announced plans to make human embryos to harvest tissue for organ transplants and anti-aging procedures.

#Stemcells #biotech #biology #Syntheticbiology #Aging #transplant
The scientist behind the work clarified that:
The synthetic embryos were not "real" embryos and did not have the potential to develop into live animals. But that is partly because they don't have the technology, right now, to do so.
He admits to taking his "ground-breaking" technology to the next level and creating human embryos. The purpose is to harvest tissue to be used in transplant treatments meant to lengthen a person's life and health.
Read 5 tweets
$NTLA and $REGN report initial data from ph1 study of #ATTR for NTLA-2001. All patients across the two doses showed 92-94% TTR reduction at day 28.
#crispr #genomics #genetherapy #biology #biotech
At both dose levels, $NTLA-2001 was generally well tolerated. 2 patients reported transient infusion reactions, which was the only observed treatment-related adverse event.
$NTLA-2001 is an in-vivo administered #genetherapy.
It is one of the first few in-vivo #GeneTherapy being tested. Congrats to the $NTLA and $REGN teams.
Read 4 tweets
In #biotech #stocks news, no opening to the US market today due to Labor Day holiday, which is a perfect time to discuss the only stock in the list of #biotech companies that I track, which is not listed in the US stock market: $ONT.L Oxford @nanopore
ONT decided to IPO in the UK rather than the NASDAQ, with two main consequences to the stock price: (1) many of the retail broker apps with a US Dollar account won't trade it as easily as US stocks, and (2) the value of the stock will correlate with the value of GBP vs USD.
The later can be seen when looking at $ONT.L Oxford @nanopore stock versus the GBPUSD trend line (yellow): when the GBP loses value to the US Dollar, seemingly ONT loses value, being traded in GBP. And vice versa, for a large pharma company such as $AZN Astrazeneca ...
Read 11 tweets
Man kann von der #Uebergewinnsteuer halten was man will, aber das Argument, dass man demzufolge auch die @BioNTech_Group für aus Not und Elend erzielte Überrenditen besteuern müsse ist von der #FDP an den Haaren herbeigezogen, denn... (1/4)
Die Energiekonzerne, erhalten derzeit ohne einen Finger mehr zu rühren ein Vielfaches der Erzeugungskosten. Das sind echte #Windfallprofits. Zumal wir auch recht sicher wissen, dass im umgekehrten Fall Verluste per Bailout solidarisiert werden (weil systemrelevant und so..) (2/4)
Der Fall der @BioNTech_Group ist ein vollkommen anderer. Hier hat man kurzfristig und innovativ durch Forschung und Arbeit eine neue Problemlösung gefunden, die zwar eine hohe Produzentenrente, aber eine NOCH höhere Konsumentenrente und gesellschaftliche Rendite hat. (3/4)
Read 5 tweets
Another twitter profile of one of the #biotech #stocks that I track, this time it's $TWST TwistBio. The company is a DNA Write company, currently applying their tech to #SynthBio, #NGS and #AntibodyDiscovery Image
The different segments are easy to explain, and in many cases we can draw analogies to $ILMN Illumina in #NGS: they provide products and services to different segments as a 'tools' provider. Now on to Twist Biopharma, here is were things get complicated.
Twist Biopharma is by all intends an purposes just another branch that concentrates on the antibody side of things. Part of what they offer is just more 'products and services', like they would do with NGS or SynthBio. The complicated part is their intention to also engage...
Read 8 tweets
In #biotech #stocks, another market opening, another tough readjustement of expectations for $NVTA Invitae at -7% opening.
The 5-day chart shows a seesawing pattern, with peaks coming from the 1-2 initial hours of market, which quickly deflate either within the day's trade value or the next day. As mentioned before in this twitter account, the shape of these can sometimes be indicative of a large...
... institutional fund loading up, submitting orders at a certain tick for a certain period of time, and adjusting the rate of buys to the response from the rest of the market. $NVTA Invitae's top institutional holders are well spread, with @ARKInvest on top at 12.5%
Read 5 tweets
Ok @TheSpectator est connu pour être un titre conservateur, atlantiste et anti-européen.

Mais, son regard critique sur cette info issue du World Economic Forum 2022 mérite de s’y intéresser. Voici pourquoi… 🧵(1/5)

#WEF #biotech #transhumanisme #surveillance
L’article rapporte la prise de position de Kathleen Philips, Vice-Présidente Recherche & Développement de l’imec (Interuniversity Microelectronics Centre), organisation internationale (90 pays, 4000 chercheurs) très active dans le champ des #nanotech 🧵(2/5) Image
🗣Selon K. Philips, nous pourrions un jour envisager de « pucer » nos enfants « pour leur #sécurité »…

Comme on place déjà des puces #RFID dans le cou de nos animaux domestiques, ou comme certains suédois, dans le bras, pour accéder à leur bureau. 🧵(3/5)
Read 6 tweets
In #biotech #stocks news, $TXG @10xGenomics is opening upwards +4% in today's trading. The company is down more than 75% in the 52-wk window. They peaked in Q1 2021 and have since then declined at a similar pace as other $XBI stocks out there.
$TXG is in the #Singlecell and #Spatial biology field. They've recently made their pivot into Spatial Biology apparent, and have both an #NGS Next-Generation Sequencing and #InSitu imaging play on it, with their #Visium and #Xenium lines respectively.
The $TXG top institutional holders include Morgan Stanley with less than 10%, followed by 3 of the heavy hitters in #biotech: UK's Baillie Gifford, Vanguard Group, and Black Rock.
Read 5 tweets
An article describing the "45 is the new 50" change in guidelines in the US for #ColorectalCancer #Screening. Slightly biased towards $EXAS Exact Sciences Cologuard.…
$EXAS Exact Sciences is one of the companies I track, in many ways a pioneer in the #LiquidBiopsy #CancerScreening field although with a low-tech method compared to other players in this field such as $ILMN Illumina (via @GrailBio), and what other companies are planning ...
Read 6 tweets
$EVFM is an example of peak management hubris. They just announced they will be delisted by NASDAQ. How did they get to this point? A 🧵
/1 #biotech #trashco
On 23 Aug 2021, $EVFM was notified by NASDAQ that they were non-compliant with the min $1 bid price. Compliance deadline was 21 Feb 2022.

They weren't compliant by the Feb deadline. So they requested a hearing. /2
Hearing held on 31 Mar. On 6 Apr, NASDAQ told $EVFM the compliance deadline was extended until 20 May.

To regain compliance, $EVFM initiated a 1:15 RS. From 6-19 May (10 trading days), EVFM was over $1.

Everything good now, right? Not so fast. /3
Read 7 tweets
(1/7) We love AlphaFold - probably one of the biggest scientific breakthroughs of this century...

Predicting protein structure from sequence

A few thoughts below: 🧵👇…
(2/7) Back in the day some scientists would make a career around solving the structure of a single protein.

The endeavor could take years using the early X-ray crystallography or NMR techniques
(3/7) By the late 90's the technology had taken the time to structure down into the timeframe of 1-6 months.

Pharma and Biotech routinely began to incorporate structure based drug design into all of their discovery programs
Read 7 tweets
(1/7) Navigating the #Biotech Black Swan

$XBI crashing 45% is certainly not something anyone expected - a thread on how operators & investors can navigate 🧵 👇🏼 Image
(2/7) These events always come out of nowhere & resolve more rapidly than most expect

We will go into detail on operational levers operators/investors can pull:

a) how to respond to Black Swann events

b) learnings from previous events so companies are positioned for recovery
(3/7) For Operators: Responding to a Black Swan event

💰Immediately tighten the budget

💰Increase cash monitoring

💰Pressure test all budget assumptions - is there far trim?

💰 Link performance goals to budget for accountability

💰 Communicate -morale is critical to manage
Read 7 tweets
Looking at a little Strategy: 🧵

I hope putting out my game plan will help other get ideas on how to do a strategy for investing to maximize returns.
1/ I am finally getting comfortable with my strategy. I have a set amount now that I am contributing to each of my portfolios for #biotech, #tech and #crypto. My plan is to use the any rallies to fade some of the companies I want get rid of that disappointed me.
2/ Then I want to use that cash to accumulate more of the companies I like. The max tax loss I can take for a year about $3,000. That would reduce my taxes and get me back about 25% or $750 in tax savings. It will work out like getting some cash back on those losers.
Read 14 tweets

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