Thread by @thewolfreports

Excellent write-up by J. Flores at FRN on Russia going along with western narrative over the IL-20 jet downed on Monday.
That French frigate Auvergne shot down the plane is a long shot, but #NATO wanting to sever #Russia–#France ties is nothing new. fort-russ.com/2018/09/full-a…

Summing up the facts that led to, and followed, the downing of a Russian IL-20 plane.

1/ #NATO has strongly opposed the #Idlib campaign from #Syria & #Russia, warning a response to a chemical attack and then – to secure an escalation – on any attack. maps.southfront.org/now-u-s-threat…

2/ One #NATO member also strongly opposed to the #Idlib campaign, but for all different reasons: #Turkey reinforced its backed rebels in Idlib with support (after striking out the #HTS on its books) and weapons.
reuters.com/article/us-mid…

3/ #Turkey invested a great deal in selling #Russia an #Idlib ceasefire during Tehran Summit on 7 September. Given that Erdogan did not have a credible operational plan to materially enforce the ceasefire on jihadists, the meeting ended with no accord.
aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/e…

4/ On Monday 17 September, Erdogan went to Sochi to present Putin a revised proposal for an #Idlib ceasefire. It involved #HTS isolation, relocation of "foreign" militants to the north, and a buffer demilitarized zone.
#Turkey and #Russia agreed.
aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/e…

5/ Not sure of the relevance of this, but because of Turkey's key role on #Syria's events it cannot be disregarded as just coincidence. Also on 17 September, #Israel and #Turkey held a secret meeting in #UAE. Currently the two have no diplomatic ties. mintpressnews.com/uae-israel-tur…

6/ Note that this Putin-Erdogan (instead of #Russia–#Turkey) accord frees Syrian and Russian military resources that are ready to operate elsewhere, namely #NATO-#US-occupied zones.

7/ Antecedents of the incident in #Latakia:
– Surveillance missions take off regularly from Khmeimim Air Base in #Latakia
– Khmeimim base has been monitored and attacked persistently by drones during the last months
–Latakia and Tartus have been home for Russian bases for decades

8/ Antecedents of the incident in #Latakia that show #Israel–#NATO coordination:
– Latakia has an international airport. No NOTAM is reckless, but 1-minute-to-go alert for Russia is something else.
– #France's ships and this #UK's Tornado patrolling the coast before the attack.

9/ That #Russia's Ministry of Defense claimed it recorded missiles fired from a French frigate at the moment they lost contact with the IL-20 is still important.

Russia had nothing to win, much to lose, involving France.

If France didn't fire, what make Russia BELIEVE it did?

10/ Are main parties involved, #Russia and #Israel, both lying:
Russia: Israeli jets used the IL-20 as a shield
Israel: our jets were back at home when the IL-20 was shot down

Israel lying is common, but Russia is the "victim" party. Why would Russia lie? Who is it protecting?

11/ Points "8/" & "9/" can be answered stating that #France shot down the IL-20 and, as J. Flores put it at FRN, #Russia covered France up to avoid a meltdown with one key partner in Europe.

But if France killed 15 Russians, Putin is smart enough to use it to his advantage.

12/ So what happened?
First, Russia blaming Israeli jets using IL-20 as a shield has been criticized as improbable.

But this improbability is because most think that this action would've been extremely difficult to pull off.

But what if it was plotted this way by #NATO-#Israel?

13/ What if...
– UK's RAF Tornado tracks the IL-20
– Israeli jets are 5 minutes away in Haifa, waiting signal
– Russian-made S-X00 cannot lock on IL-20, but Israeli jet gets just in position
– France's Auvergne creates diversion
– Other jets fire at empty facilities as cover

14/ Given this context, such plot could've been executed as a means to keep the war going (after the #Idlib excuse failed) by drawing Russia into conflict to justify #NATO's permanence in #Syria, and to keep cover for #Israel's policy of seeding chaos abroad to keep order at home

15/ Russia decided to not engage in direct response during the incident and to limit its response to quasi-blaming #Israel afterwards, thus avoiding the trap of escalation.

But this is also a reminder that #NATO and #Israel are killing more Russians than #ISIS/#AlQaeda ever did.

#unroll @threadreaderapp