Thread by @37paday

1/ MPs!!

Read on....

2/ Brexit is not going well. On that we can all agree.

The current chaos is not going to leave us better off, so what is your insurance policy?

3/ There is no majority for no deal because that would be bad for us, bad for the EU and bad for the island of Ireland

4/ The likelihood of no deal however is very high because we leave the EU automatically on 29 March 2019

5/ That date can only change if there is agreement by the EU to extend article 50 or a deal is reached that extends that date

6/ But at the moment the chances of a good deal are bad. The UK’s self imposed redlines are limiting what is on offer from the EU and the UK shows no signs of shifting

7/ Currently at best we may get a Super Canada +++ deal which is not good for us. In fact as the Supercali... song goes it is truly atrocious...

8/ We are also fast running out of time to reach a deal that is good for us. After all that is what was promised

9/ Now the majority of you all risked that outcome by authorising the MP to trigger article 50 with no defined plan or safeguards. It is basic stuff but you failed there

10/ So right now what is your insurance policy?

12/ Well you could force the PM to soften her redlines to include being in the single market and a customs union. Before you moan at me have a read of article 102 of the EEA Agreement about the control it can give

13/ Here it is

14/ That is the least worst outcome for the UK and is on offer from the EU. So it is doable.

15/ Of course timing is running out so if you cannot do that what else do you have?Well there is a further vote by the people but that will take time to organise and pass legislation.

16/ Of course it can be done but you need to get moving if you don’t want to rely on asking the EU for an extension. And, of course that assume you have a deal to put to the people.

What if you don’t?

17/ Well there is an insurance policy in article 50. Here is the text

18/ Article 50 was introduced to make clear member states remain sovereign. Each can decide to remain or leave the EU.

19/ If a member state wants to leave it is a decision it makes under its own national law. It is sovereign after all.

20/ If the member state then gives notice of its national law decision EU law kicks in and a 2 year clock starts

21/ But can article 50 be unilaterally revoked without the consent of the EU27?

Well, yes it can

22/ If a member state makes a national law based decision to stay in the EU then that overrides its previous national law based decision to leave.

23/ As long the member state gives notice of its decision not to leave before the end of the 2 year period it can unilaterally revoke its original decision

24/ EU law would have to respect that because otherwise it would undermine the spirit and purpose of article 50 of making clear member states remain sovereign

25/ This question ultimately can only be determined by the ECJ and luckily there is an expedited case on exactly this point google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.c…

26/ But even before we get to that point the EU27 have said many times we can change our mind.

27/ So your insurance policy would be passing an act of parliament requiring the PM to revoke the original article 50 notice. That you can do quickly

28/ You may not all like it but when we don’t know the extent of Russian interference, there were breaches of electoral law, the MET is not investigating alleged crimes and you all authorised the start of a two year exit process with no safeguards and....

29/ and no good deal in sight, it remains your best insurance policy that won’t irreparably harm the UK’s geopolitical security, economy, environment and public services

30/ Remember it is your duty to act in the national interest.