It’s out! 🎊
My new @ecfr paper on how #Europe can ride the #climate momentum in the #Gulf deploying its #GreenDeal to meet #NetZero & #geopolitical objectives in the region ➡️ bit.ly/2XOK8bG
Read b4 #COP26 #COP26Glasgow
Few take-aways 1/ Image
Good that #SaudiArabia & #UAE have pledged #NetZero but #GCC total domestic emissions are only 2.4% of world’s. The #EU needs to focus on the emissions they export, mostly to #China, I argue how: bit.ly/2XOK8bG 2/
As shown by the #SaudiGreenInitiative & #MiddleEastGreenInitiative + #UAE willingness to host #COP 28, the #GCC leaders now see a political value in embracing the #climate agenda. This paper described what each #GCC country is actually *doing* about it: bit.ly/2XOK8bG 3/
The #GCC countries still bet on #oil & #gas for few decades, & are boosting production, doing #carboncapture. This is how #Qatar calls its gas #Green #LNG. Here’s why #EU must not back off from #carbontax #CABM Polluting should be costly ➡️ bit.ly/2XOK8bG 4/ Image
#FossilFuels are existential to the #GCC economies, so #Europe will only win them over w/economic alternatives. Focus on #GreenHydrogen & #electrification. #Germany already as an MoU w/#SaudiArabia on #hydrogen. We need #EU-wide MoUs w/#UAE & #Oman, too bit.ly/2XOK8bG 5/
Both #hydrogen & #electricity coop btwn the #EU & #GCC will need geopolitical thinking now:

❌ avoid over-dependence on #Suez
✅ promote regional interconnection
✅ re-think #EastMed?
❗️maritime security in #Hormuz & #BabalMandab

My @ECFRMena paper: bit.ly/2XOK8bG 6/ Image
#SaudiArabia, #UAE & #Oman are already working to produce #GreenHydrogen at half the price the #EU forecasted in its #Hydrogen Strategy. And the #EU can hardly reach its #GreenDeal objectives without this squeaky-clean import:

bit.ly/2XOK8bG 7/
Equally important, by becoming a strategic #energy market for #GCC, #Europe would acquire some sorely-needed leverage in the region. 8/

Read more ➡️ bit.ly/2XOK8bG
#BreakingNews: #MbS will be at #COP26 in #Glasgow, where #SaudiArabia will represent the #Arab group. The time to boost cooperation btwn #Europe & the #Gulf on “driving not surviving” the change is now: bit.ly/2XOK8bG 9/
#COP26Glasgow
This paper is to bridge gap btwn experts & policy-makers, but I could only write it thanks to the work of experts like @EUGCC_cleanergy, @FrankWouters, @mariluomi, @DrAishaAlSarihi, @TobiZumbraegel, @robinenergy, @bencahillenergy, @jimkrane & more: bit.ly/2XOK8bG 10/10
Press Review 1/
Grazie a @GiuliaBelard per aver scritto del mio paper @ECFRRoma su politica estera climatica #UE nel #Golfo per @HuffPostItalia:
Press Review 2/
@TheNationalNews reports on my @ECFRMena paper on #Europe’s #climate diplomacy in the #Gulf. #COP26 #COP26Glasgow thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2…
Press Review 3/
Pezzo interessantissimo dall’inviata di @repubblica in #ArabiaSaudita @francescacaferr che racconta l’aria #verde che tira a #Riad e parla del mio paper @ECFRRoma e delle opportunità per l’#UE e l’#Europa: repubblica.it/esteri/2021/10… #energia #petrolio #ambiente
Press Review 4/
@de_f_t di @formichenews scrive del mio paper @ECFRRoma su #GreenDeal, #UE e #Golfo: nuove relazioni energetiche tra Golfo ed Europa darebbero una nuova centralità strategica/economica anche al #Mediterraneo come snodo di transito: formiche.net/2021/10/green-…

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More from @Cinzia_Bianco

30 Oct
A thread on imagining impacts of the #Metaverse on “my” world. How will the job of a #geopolitics analyst be different? How will this new platform change international relations in general and the #Gulf in particular? Feel free to add your take, it’s simply thinking out loud.
1/
First, meetings & events. #Zoom events are here to stay, alongside in-person ones. But a digital event on #Metaverse could be so much better and closer to a real-life experience, enhanced by instant access to resources 2/
Then, outputs. Will it make sense to write papers when you can produce an interactive output combining texts, recordings, images/videos in the form of a meta-research on #geopolitics on #Metaverse? 3/
Read 8 tweets
3 Sep
#EU Foreign Ministers meet today for #Gymnich. They will discuss #Afghanistan. But then they will discuss the #Gulf. This is a rare occurrence - EU Ministers have discussed #JCPOA often but very rarely regional geopolitics between the #GCC, #Iraq & #Iran. They do now because… ⬇️
…because of the #Baghdad_summit last week and #France’s involvement in it. Most in #EU that #Iraq can be the hub for regional diplomacy in the #Gulf, building on talks btwn #SaudiArabia & #Iran. Reality is that with no progress on #Yemen these talks are shallow but ⬇️
…but I welcome choice to discuss #Gulf geopolitics at a #EU level. Hope there is some realism in acknowledging this is a security matter, not a diplomatic misunderstanding. #US retrenchment will inevitably lead to more #Russia & #China in the Gulf. It is already happening. So ⬇️
Read 5 tweets
7 Oct 20
The moment we were waiting for has come. New #Kuwait Emir, #SheikhNawaf, nominates his brother Mishal Al-Ahmad as Crown Prince. He is a security person, w/past experience in the Interior Ministry and Deputy Chief of the Kuwaiti National Guard since 2004. Some thoughts. 1/
The National Assembly (NA) has to confirm Mishal al-Ahmad as #Kuwait CP with 2/3 majority. As @bmalsaif said, Emir prolonged term of the outgoing NA to Oct 20 coz it was the safer option - new Parliament likely to have more opposition members & elections vulnerable to meddling 2/
That #Kuwait Emir chose his brother Mishal al-Ahmed as CP, is in continuity w/agnatic seniority - he was also appointed CP by his brother #SheikhSabah. #GCC old generation thinking. Mishal was the only to accompany Sabah in the US for medical treatment, they were very close. 3/
Read 17 tweets
11 Sep 20
On the #Trump-mediated normalization between #Bahrain & #Israel keep in mind that this is not unexpected or historic per se, but because there might be a #SaudiArabia angle. Me & @h_lovatt wrote it for @ECFRMena last month ecfr.eu/amp-article/co…
In fact, there was much to say about #Bahrain and #Israel in my June article for @ispionline, when #annexation was possibly imminent. Find the article here: ispionline.it/it/pubblicazio…
Read 5 tweets
7 Aug 20
#SaudiArabia FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan has been quite busy these days! Today in #Italy, right after #Cyprus and, before, a North Africa tour. On geopolitics, Riyadh and Rome have two major things to talk about: #Libya and #EastMed. Both have to do with #Turkey.
#Italy and #SaudiArabia do not traditionally have an in-depth, serious geopolitical engagement. This is for many reasons, many of which are common to other continental #Europe-an countries, excluding #France. I have analysed those in my @ECFRMena paper: ecfr.eu/publications/s…
This same paper is part of a wider effort, done within @ECFRMena, to provide ideas to the #EU and #Europe-an countries on how to engage geopolitically w/#GCC monarchies, who are now impactful players in the entire #MENA, including the #Mediterranean. ecfr.eu/publications/s…
Read 7 tweets
24 Jul 20
🎙️New @arabdigest podcast: I discuss w/@BillLaw49 about how a #US retrenchment from the #MENA triggered a competition between #Russia #China #Turkey #Iran #UAE & #SaudiArabia to occupy vacuum and implications for #UK and #Europe. Highlights:
@ECFRMena
tinyurl.com/y2awxgd7
Yes I did really say "sometimes the #MENA region today seems like the Far West w/the Sheriff (#US) taking a nap". The multipolar competition deepened & entrenched conflicts in #Yemn, #Libya, #Syria and is extending towards the #HornofAfrica and #EastMed m.soundcloud.com/arabdigest/the…
While I recognize #Europe is not really a security/geopolitical player today, I also believe there is a space if Europeans can do serious diplomacy. Other players now how to fight not really how to solve conflicts... m.soundcloud.com/arabdigest/the…
Read 5 tweets

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