Thread by @Charles_Lister

Gut wrenching.

This young girl was killed today in #Assad regime shelling of Khan Sheikhoun, #Idlib. Her father could only hold her feet as she was carried away.

#Idlib might as well be Mars for 99.9% of the world these days.

The world is a cruel place. #Syria

Very important data from @ACLEDINFO, detailing the "disproportionate" scale of pro-#Assad violations of the demilitarized/de-escalation zone in #Syria's #Idlib/NW.

Moreover, regime shelling in Feb 2019 was x4 the previous monthly average.

@ACLEDINFO In a meeting with opposition fighters, #Turkey ordered #NLF factions to retaliate to #Assad regime shelling in #Idlib.

#Ankara also warned #Moscow & #Tehran that it'd withdraw from #Astana if attacks continued.

turkey-breaking.com/%d8%aa%d8%b1%d…

@ACLEDINFO #pt: In the same meeting on #Idlib, #Turkey discussed the possibility of:

- Removing all military factions from urban areas
- Replacing them with a local police force
- Turkey-#Russia patrols in NW DMZ
- Unifying armed groups under one command

wp.me/p7wTnl-5Cg

@ACLEDINFO Amid intensifying #Assad regime shelling of populated areas of #Idlib, jihadists launched 2 major assaults on pro-regime positions over the weekend.

Their results won't go unnoticed by #Damascus, #Moscow or #Tehran, further risking a gradual escalation towards all-out conflict.

@ACLEDINFO At dawn on Sunday, a well-armed, specialist unit of pro-AQ Ansar al-Tawhid & a collection of Chechen fighters attacked a checkpoint in Massasneh in northern #Hama.

20+ pro-regime troops (incl. Tiger Forces) were killed, most identified/acknowledged in public postings.

@ACLEDINFO Later on Sunday, an #HTS "inghimasi" unit launched an assault on a pro-#Assad checkpoint in the Jabal Turkman region of #Latakia.

Four #SAA soldiers were reportedly killed alongside a national of #Iran - possibly #IRGC.

@ACLEDINFO Just another ordinary day in #Syria's last "de-escalation/demilitarized zone."

https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/1102634029914996745

@ACLEDINFO BREAKING - possible reports of a pro-#Assad attack/strike hitting a #Turkey observation post in #Idlib.

Little other information yet.

@ACLEDINFO Possible confirmation below from @damascene2012 that #Assad shelling hit 500m from a #Turkey observation post near Morek, northern #Hama.

So not a direct strike, but close enough to risk a dangerous escalation.

#Syria #Idlib

https://twitter.com/damascene2012/status/1102687831930126337

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 In response to recent pro-#Assad shelling of #Idlib & western #Aleppo, #HTS yesterday launched a volley of "Elephant" rockets, shown here.

Interestingly, #HTS has blurred the surrounding landscape - a new attempt at opsec within intensifying focus on the DMZ.

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 BIG news today, as (1) #Turkey's military patrolled #Syria's NW "demilitarized zone" & #Russia granted #Ankara full access to #Idlib airspace.

Depending on scope and regularity, could be a big step forward in possibly better ensuring a better semblance of stability in NW #Syria.

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 #pt: #Turkey's patrol today focused on the NW DMZ's sensitive eastern zone (see @suriyegundemi_ map).

Turkish forces were provided an escort by #Faylaq al-Sham - the closest #NLF member to #Ankara.

Residents have celebrated the 1st day of "peace" in 2019.

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ Despite #Russia's facilitation of #Turkey's military patrol of #Idlib's DMZ on Friday, pro-#Assad forces went straight back to shelling all through the weekend.

A new #TSK patrol was planned for Sunday; delayed to Monday -- still no sign of anything yet.

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ BREAKING - footage from al-Talmanah in southeastern #Idlib shows incendiary shelling falling tonight:



I haven't seen this in months. #Syria

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ The situation in #Syria's #Idlib escalated significantly overnight, with air & artillery strikes heavier than in a long time.

Rumors are spreading that #Turkey may be on the verge of giving up on #Astana (de-escalation, DMZ etc.), as #Russia-n planes got involved themselves.

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ #pt: Overnight, #Russia has been accused of involvement in a series of airstrikes that hit a small IDP settlement outside #Saraqeb, in which 2 women were killed & 19 other civilians wounded.

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ #pt: Meanwhile, footage is emerging now of a new (2nd) #Turkey military convoy patrolling part of the northwestern DMZ, including portions of northern #Hama, this morning.



Video via @Kyruer

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ @Kyruer Useful data map by @ETANA_Syria, showing the distribution of pro-#Assad violations of #Idlib de-escalation.

Note the focus in southern #Idlib/northern #Hama and along the M5 & R65 roadways.

#Syria

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ @Kyruer @ETANA_Syria This is a very useful map by @jusoorstudies, mapping out factional control in northwestern #Syria.

#HTS may indeed be dominant, but it's far from the only player in the area.

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ @Kyruer @ETANA_Syria @jusoorstudies #Turkey conducted its 3rd military patrol in #Syria's northwest on Sunday, reaching Sahl al-Ghab in northern #Hama.

Residents appear determined to show support for #Ankara - this de-escalation design is their last hope.

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ @Kyruer @ETANA_Syria @jusoorstudies Interesting & concerning to see the return of homemade weaponized drones to NW #Syria. Their use risks guaranteeing escalation & locking #Russia into retaliatory actions.

This one targeted pro-regime forces in #Latakia over the weekend. (Images via @QalaatAlMudiq):

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ @Kyruer @ETANA_Syria @jusoorstudies @QalaatAlMudiq Over the past year, #HTS has effectively severed itself from its AQ allegiance & sought ties/worked with #Turkey - a deeply controversial strategy for a jihadi group.

On this, @MEI_CTE published an excellent report last week by @b_ulbricht... read here:

mei.edu/sites/default/…

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ @Kyruer @ETANA_Syria @jusoorstudies @QalaatAlMudiq @MEI_CTE @b_ulbricht Heartbreaking.

A suspected #Russia strike hit a family home in al-Faqia in #Idlib overnight, killing a father & all 4 of his children. Only the wife survived.

Footage from the @SyriaCivilDefe rescue:

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ @Kyruer @ETANA_Syria @jusoorstudies @QalaatAlMudiq @MEI_CTE @b_ulbricht @SyriaCivilDefe There's been a sudden uptick in #Russia air strikes on areas of #Idlib today - including Khan Sheikhoun, al-Fuah & Kafraya.

Multiple casualties reported.

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ @Kyruer @ETANA_Syria @jusoorstudies @QalaatAlMudiq @MEI_CTE @b_ulbricht @SyriaCivilDefe #pt: Here's a photo taken by an activist in #Idlib, showing clearly a #Russia Su-34 engaged in striking targets this afternoon.

[via @HusamHezaber]

@ACLEDINFO @damascene2012 @suriyegundemi_ @Kyruer @ETANA_Syria @jusoorstudies @QalaatAlMudiq @MEI_CTE @b_ulbricht @SyriaCivilDefe @HusamHezaber The "Attorney General" of #Idlib's [#HTS-sponsored] Salvation Government - Mohammad Qabaqbaji - has died of wounds sustained from an IED attack on his vehicle in #Idlib earlier today.