Thread by @JennyCafarella

NEW | #Russia's Dead-End Diplomacy in #Syria

My latest @TheStudyofWar w/ Jason Zhou covers:

-A complex power balance b/t #Assad & his backers
-Evolution of Russia's integrated military & diplomatic efforts
-Russian limits in Syria
-A way forward

bit.ly/37X4xLH

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@TheStudyofWar A meaningful diplomatic settlement in #Syria remains distant despite consistent US efforts to support one

America's core mistake is repeatedly expecting that #Russia can & will solve our #Assad problem(s)

It is a mental block we must overcome to have a more effective policy

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@TheStudyofWar Since 2015, #Russia has failed to achieve 5 major diplomatic goals on the heels of military success. Most often, #Assad has spoiled

1. 2017 Astana
2. 2018 Sochi
3. 2018 reconciliation deals
4. Reconstruction $ for refugee returns
5. Reconstruction $ for Idlib de-escalation

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@TheStudyofWar #Russia approved UN Security Council Resolution 2254 (more later) after intervening in 2015 & then failed twice to implement it:

1st, Russia introduced a new Syrian constitution at the 1st meeting of the Astana process in Jan 2017 after a brutal seizure of #Aleppo. No dice.

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Then, #Russia (with #Turkey's help) attempted to convene an intra-Syrian dialogue in Sochi in Jan 2018 titled the "Syrian People's Congress"

Major rebel figures boycotted because terms & symbols (inc flags) were pro-regime

#Assad also refused to send an official delegation

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#Russia recalibrated after Sochi & deployed military officers to broker local surrender ("reconciliation") deals in rebel enclaves previously under de-escalation deals in Damascus, Homs, & Deraa/Quneitra

Terms included protections from #Assad, who systematically violated them
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In addition to extending #Assad's control, #Russia sought to use reconciliation to coopt/neutralize local rebel leaders in new stabilization mechanisms. One such figure is now on the constitutional committee. But Assad's spoiling limited this & destabilized the areas once more
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#Russia launched a bid to draw reconstruction funds to #Syria despite Assad's destabilization of the 3 "reconciled" zones, offering to facilitate refugee returns in return for reconstruction $

#Assad signaled to refugees that they would face retaliation if they returned

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#Assad helped spoil #Russia's 1st reconstruction pitch by:

-Air Force Intel chief says regime prefers governing 10 million compliant citizens (pre-war 20 mil)
-Conscription & arrest of returnees
-Death notices for political prisoners
-Property seizures
-Forced loyalty pledges
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Pressure from the Trump administration also helped block #Russia's bid for reconstruction funds in #Syria, which Assad signaled he'd use to repay both Russia & Iran for their military support. The US added sanctions on regime & Russian figures & threatened more

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#Russia tried a new approach, helping #Assad attack #Idlib & using this military pressure to reset terms of negotiations with Europe. Russia also offered to help implement 2254, long stalled. Putin got a reconstruction conference with #Germany & #France in #Turkey but no $

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In Idlib, #Russia also cut a separate w/ #Turkey to de-escalate & open trade between regime & opposition areas via a buffer zone, which would have provided limited but important economic activity

Both #Assad & #AlQaeda spoiled it

Map: @TheNationalUAE bit.ly/2P5zqFf
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@TheNationalUAE A defining element of Syria policy is the disconnect between Western expectations of diplomatic progress & ground reality

Our timeline provides diplomatic & military developments since 2011, including the surrenders that #Assad/#Russia/#Iran compelled via brutality

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@TheNationalUAE #Russia's military campaigns in #Syria have been effective but the limits of this success are often overlooked

The siege & capture of #Aleppo City (Dec 2018) was a victory but at high cost

Russian officers describe it as "Syria's Stalingrad" & have avoided repeating it

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