Thread by @TimInHonolulu

1. My estimate of the #Trump #Impeachment trial possible outcomes:

If we start the @POTUS @realdonaldtrump #Impeachment trial before #SCOTUS rules we have <10% chance to win.

2. If we wait until #SCOTUS rules, we have ~25% chance we win. That analysis takes into account the possible, though unlikely, chance Trump wins at #SCOTUS.

Applying the same analysis but with the assumption that Trump loses at SCOTUS, I estimate >75% Trump is gone by June.

3. Maybe @VP is gone too if he doesn't cough up the documents.
Trump is a mobster. Everybody knows that. And his documents will prove it.
@SpeakerPelosi @LeaderHoyer @WhipClyburn @RepJeffries @SenateGOP @HouseGOP