Thread by @Rita_Katz

1)Troubling: #Assad #SAA, in its offensive to capture #Idlib, is aggressively advancing on towns surrounding city, regardless of civilian exodus. Recent escalation resulted in rare fire betw. Turkish &Syrian forces in the restive #Saraqeb-leading to significant casualties to both

2)The haste of the offensive has led Turkey to make rare direct threats to Assad & his supporters if they do not deescalate their efforts. However, #SAA has reportedly advanced further towards Idlib, to Nayrab town. Further advances at this pace bring fears of another Aleppo.

3)Disappointing that the world is nowhere to be found AGAIN. Especially disappointing that it was Western nations that supported the rebellion against #Assad, and hopes for a future democracy.

4)Turkey Pres #Erdoğan has declared #Assad must withdrawal forces IVO Turkish observation posts in #Idlib or face sure military retaliation. Fear of hundreds of thousands of refugees approaching its border, economic interests, and ally groups in Idlib are all factors of its stand

5)This comes after deadly confrontations between the two embittered countries in past days, which had marked the most direct violence between the two in recent memory. Turkey will do everything in its power to protect its border w/ Syria, and other interests, for better or worse.

6)It will be interesting to see if #Assad's #SAA back by #Russia obeys the demands. And if they don't, what sort of response/aid will come from the Western partner nations of NATO, of which Turkey is a part, in what would be a significant international military conflict.

7)#SAA backed by #Russia totally ignored Turkey’s warning & besieged the strategically imperative #Saraqeb, just 18km E. of #Idlib - where the embittered nations traded rare fire last week & where Turkish forces have been deployed. Outright conflict would be geopolitical disaster

8)Meanwhile, alleged #Russia airstrikes in #Idlib - eerily reminiscent of every past siege seen on major rebel/jihadi-held cities. Further concentration of battles on the city itself would potentially double the already 500,000 displaced as result of SAA push across the region.

9)Remarkable footage: #HTS releases vid of #VBIED suicide op targeting Russian-backed #SAA-aligned militiamen in #Nayrab, less than 10km west of the embattled & strategically imperative #Saraqeb city. Very reminiscent of past #ISIS videos: drone footage, vehicle highlighted, etc

10)Another confrontation betw. #Turkey & #Syria in #Idlib. Syrian shelling reportedly resulted in 5 Turkish soldiers killed, just 1 week after 8 were killed under similar circumstances. The rhetoric of whether or not a direct conflict will occur is losing meaning. It is occurring

11)With both sides appearing dedicated to their goals in the region -SAA to capture the last rebel stronghold - and Turkey to back particular rebel groups and prevent mass civilian exodus to its borders - the need for a diplomatic solution is more desperately needed now than ever