Thread by @SethAbramson

(THREAD) BREAKING: A recent revelation sheds new light on the Trump-Russia timeline—particularly the relationship Flynn had with the Trumps.

1/ Flynn first met Trump in mid-2015. Flynn says they hit it off quickly and were of a similar mind on foreign policy and national security.

2/ Yet in late March 2016—more than six months later—Flynn's name was nowhere to be found on Trump's foreign policy/national security team.

3/ On March 21, 2016, Trump named for the NYT six members of a team he variously called his "foreign policy" and "national security" team.

4/ Flynn, who became Trump's National Security Advisor and was said to be his top advisor on the subject during the campaign, wasn't listed.

5/ But on March 21, 2016, Trump told the NYT he had "quite a few more" advisors on the subject of national security besides those he named.

6/ So on March 26, 2016—5 days later—he named three more members of his national security team. Mike Flynn's name still wasn't on the list.

7/ On March 31, Trump held the first meeting of his national security team. A photo from that day shows even more new people had been added.

8/ Yet even by March 31, with a dozen members of Trump's foreign policy/national security team revealed, Flynn's name and face were absent.

9/ Two items must be noted here: first, Carter Page, named by Trump on March 21, was inexplicably absent from the team at its first meeting.

10/ This matters because we now know the team was just then beginning to discuss whether to send a private citizen to meet with the Kremlin.

11/ Papadopoulos—named to the team and pictured on March 31—said he had contacts at the Kremlin who wanted to meet soon with Trump's aides.

12/ The most likely member of the team for the task was Page, as he traveled often to Moscow for conferences. And indeed he did that July.

13/ So Page suddenly disappearing from public relations materials for the foreign policy/national security team at that moment is notable.

14/ A second item to note here: Flynn had already traveled to Moscow to have dinner with Vladimir Putin by the time Trump named his team.

15/ Flynn dined with Putin at an RT gala in December 2015, and admits to talking presidential politics—and no one doubts he told Trump this.

16/ Why is that? Because Trump was obsessed with Putin, and he was in regular contact with Flynn on issues—Russia included—by December 2015.

17/ So keep in mind, when you look at the public roster—particularly photos—of Trump's foreign policy/national security team, who is absent.

18/ We have to presume Trump had input into who would be on his team—and also who would be publicly named. And publicly pictured. Note that.

19/ In September '16, WaPo reported Trump had added even more members to his foreign policy/national security team between March and August.

20/ Yet even as his foreign policy/national security team swelled beyond 12 members—already sizable—Flynn wasn't any part of that operation.

21/ It's extraordinary that Trump had 15 or more advisors on national security he was willing to name and brag about and not one became NSA.

22/ The reason for this is Trump, during his run, had a Shadow Cabinet—advisors he knew weren't palatable enough to be seen by the public.

23/ The Intercept says Erik Prince, who used Russian deza on Breitbart just before Election Day, was Shadow Cabinet. theintercept.com/2017/01/17/not…

24/ Prince's "deza" (Russian disinfo) was about Clinton misconduct. Absent from any Trump photos, he ended up at Trump's Election Day party.

25/ Reporting from The Washington Post from last September suggests that Mike Flynn was also in this Shadow Cabinet. washingtonpost.com/news/josh-rogi…

26/ Indeed, Trump's giant-sized foreign policy/national security shop collapsed in August of 2016 because he wouldn't pay them—or use them.

27/ The only way a POTUS nominee with *no foreign policy/national security knowledge* can dump his whole team is if he has a Shadow Cabinet.

28/ Despite having a domestic policy team, too, Trump chose Sean Hannity for his Shadow Cabinet on domestic policy. nytimes.com/2016/08/22/bus…

29/ Neither Hannity nor Trump acknowledged Hannity's role because—like Prince and Flynn—Hannity would not be a publicly palatable advisor.

30/ The reason wasn't Hannity's far-right views, but that it's unethical for a self-described journalist to secretly advise a POTUS nominee.

31/ So investigators must—likely have—observed this pattern: Trump named advisors the public could see, then relied on unpalatable figures.

32/ This is critical from a legal standpoint—as it establishes that Trump had sufficient knowledge about these figures' issues to hide them.

33/ So this is the part of the Flynn story in which we begin speaking, of all people, about Chris Christie: Trump's true "forgotten man."

34/ The New Yorker reported this week that it was a tossup whether Pence or Christie would get the VP nod. Trump preferred his pal—Christie.

35/ Ivanka and Jared, who figure significantly in this thread, pushed for Pence. Jared hated Christie. Here's why: cnn.com/2016/11/16/pol…

36/ Kushner hated Christie because Christie prosecuted Kushner's dad—but you could also say Jared knew Christie prosecuted corrupt Kushners.

37/ As Jared's questionably legal activities take center stage, consider his unwillingness to have Christie catch *another* corrupt Kushner.

38/ When Trump picked Pence—due, The New Yorker implies, to Christie's weight (Trump on Pence: "VP central casting")—Christie got screwed.

39/ But for his early loyalty, Trump rewarded Christie with a key position: head of the transition team. Christie could form the government.

40/ Christie lasted just 72 hours in the role. Despite it being his consolation prize for losing VP, Ivanka and Jared forced him out ASAP.

41/ What The New Yorker added this week (h/t @justinhendrix) is the reason Ivanka/Jared were able to get Christie off Team Trump so quickly.

42/ According to The New Yorker, what did in Chris Christie on Team Trump was his strong opposition to Mike Flynn. newyorker.com/magazine/2017/…

43/ By November 11, Christie somehow already knew about Flynn's secret (and illegal) advocacy for Turkey—suggesting he'd known pre-election.

44/ No one thinks—or says—Chris Christie learned about Flynn's complex backstory in his first 72 hours as Trump's transition-team director.

45/ What Christie knew is that Flynn was on the Shadow Cabinet—and advising Trump on some of the same issues (NatSec) Christie had hoped to.

46/ But Flynn had a huge advantage on Christie. Was it that Trump liked him more? Knew him better? Thought him smarter than Christie? No—no.

47/ Flynn's advantage—actually two advantages—is he'd already made contact with the Russians and was willing to engage in illicit behavior.

48/ So what The New Yorker describes happening in Trump Tower on November 11th is *extraordinary*. Ivanka and Jared usurped the transition.

49/ What they did was this: declared that the shadiest member of the Shadow Cabinet could have any job he wanted in Trump's administration.

50/ Ivanka made clear Flynn would be considered for Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, National Security Advisor, or other top roles.

51/ Consider—pre-election, all the Trumps knew Flynn had to be off-radar. And they knew exactly why. Yet Ivanka ousted Christie using Flynn.

52/ It was effective because Christie—a law-and-order guy—would never accept Flynn. Which is exactly why Christie was wrong for Team Trump.

53/ It's *astonishing* Trump took *well under a day* to choose Flynn over the man *he'd wanted for Vice President*—a close personal friend.

54/ Why was Flynn *so* valuable to Trump he could have any job, get Christie kicked out of the administration, get Ivanka directly involved?

55/ Asked another way, when Ivanka said to Christie Flynn was to be rewarded for "loyalty" to the family—what did that mean? What did he do?

56/ Yesterday, CNN gave us a lot more info on exactly what Flynn might have been doing—secretly—during the campaign. cnn.com/2017/10/16/pol…

57/ Just as Page had to disappear from the campaign in order to go to Moscow and meet with Kremlin allies—as the IC says he did—thus Flynn.

58/ Don "loved" the idea of Hillary dirt—enough to bring Kushner and his dad's campaign manager to meet Kremlin agents *in his dad's house*.

59/ Don (Jr.) knew what his dad wanted—Hillary dirt—both from private conversations, it's quite clear, and also his dad's public statements.

60/ CNN now reports Flynn was Trump's contact for a much *larger* effort to get Hillary dirt via suspected Russian agents on the "dark web."

61/ Isn't it likely Ivanka was willing to go to bat in such extraordinary fashion for Flynn's "loyalty" because she knew about such efforts?

62/ Don't worry—this isn't mere speculation. We can look at the Trump-Russia timeline to *prove* Ivanka and Jared liked Flynn due to Russia.

63/ The earliest Flynn could officially have been locked in as a Trump White House staffer was November 12, 2016—the day Christie was fired.

64/ Now consider Flynn's activities with Jared in the four weeks following this earliest date for his elevation to Trump's permanent staff.

65/ As the Rosneft oil deal—Russia's largest ever—closed the first week of December, Flynn was with Jared and Bud McFarlane at Trump Tower.

66/ McFarlane—an Iran-Contra villain the FBI looked at for secret contacts with our geopolitical enemies—is a Russian oil-pipeline advocate.

67/ Immediately thereafter, Kushner—and Flynn—were at Trump Tower with Russia's ambassador discussing building a secret Kremlin backchannel.

68/ Who was the Kremlin backchannel Kushner wanted *for*? Why—for Mike Flynn, of course! So says the New York Times: nytimes.com/2017/05/26/us/…

69/ Reuters has reported Kushner had an unreported—and still denied—phone call with Kislyak in November. Presumably to set up this meeting.

70/ We know Kushner never reported—and still denies—the call, and that he lied on federal forms about whether the December meeting happened.

71/ Yet Kushner *must* have moved to set up that call—and that backchannel—the *moment* Flynn joined Team Trump. The timeline assures that.

72/ Flynn *couldn't* be the backchannel contact unless he was on Trump's White House staff. And he wasn't until—at the earliest—November 12.

73/ So there are two possibilities: (a) Ivanka and Kushner planned to use Flynn as their Russian liaison when they ousted Christie on 11/11;

74/ (b) Ivanka and Kushner were rewarding Flynn for other conduct—but upon hire they moved *quickly* to get him back in contact with Russia.

75/ In either case, it's clear that Flynn—and Russia—were at the heart of Ivanka and Kushner's usurpation of Trump's entire transition team.

76/ It would be fair to say that a) Ivanka is now a *major* Trump-Russia witness, and b) the governing issue of the transition was *Russia*.

77/ But we also must conclude, due to Trump's pattern of conduct, that he knew Flynn was critical to his plans—more than Christie—early on.

78/ But we must further conclude—given Flynn being *so critical* to Trump but also *so expertly and carefully hidden by him*—something else.

79/ Trump's realization Flynn had to be in the Shadow Cabinet—not out front—came after August 2015 but before March 2016. Say December 2015?

80/ December of 2015 is when Flynn met with Putin in Moscow at an RT gala and discussed presidential politics—and hit it off with Vladimir.

81/ Certainly, we know using Flynn to create a backchannel to Russia is the *first and most significant thing* the Trumps wanted Flynn for.

82/ We know Flynn's Russia-based value to Trump far exceeded *any* loyalty Trump had to Christie—and Trump *is* loyal to those loyal to him.

83/ And we know that just after meeting Kislyak with Flynn, Kushner secretly met with Putin's banker—lying about this on federal forms, too.

84/ So Kushner puts Flynn at the center of a plot to create a permanent Kremlin backchannel right as he's meeting with Putin's state banker.

85/ But Ivanka—whose family finances are of course also Jared's—takes the lead in de facto firing Christie so Kushner doesn't look vengeful.

86/ So the New Yorker piece—added to the rest of the Trump-Russia timeline—dramatically changes how we think of the Trump-Flynn connection.

87/ It also underscores that Flynn was doing something behind the scenes—after December 2015—that merited some *extraordinary* compensation.

88/ The idea a disgraced ex-government official should be looked at by Ivanka and Jared for Secretary of State? Defense? He was clearly key.

89/ And the timing of Trump hiding him—and Kushner using him to connect with top Kremlin aides—tells us just how the Trumps saw him as key.

90/ So no one can doubt, on these facts, that Trump—despite claims to the contrary—*did know* Flynn was talking to Russia in December 2016.

91/ Indeed—Flynn's unique role in "talking to Russia" was likely *exactly* the reason Trump kept him *off* his NatSec team in March of 2016.

92/ To investigators, these connected facts—especially facts connecting, and behaviors that track, over such a long time—suggest conspiracy.

93/ Action-steps—Mueller must interview Ivanka as though she were a *major* Trump-Russia witness. Because based on this TNY article, she is.

94/ Media must use factual narratives like this to try to determine Trump's level of *knowledge* at all points in the Trump-Russia timeline.

95/ The public must *not* forget Mike Flynn simply because he's out of the limelight and almost certain to be charged with FARA violations.

96/ Journalists must be better than The New Yorker was about seeing the whole field of data on Trump and Russia—and thus not burying ledes.

97/ Investigators must not—though I doubt they are—credit Kushner's repeated claims about forgetting to do things (always involving Russia).

98/ Team Trump's Kremlin-backchannel efforts *must not be seen* as a post-election phenomenon. Flynn was being positioned for this early on.

99/ Trump's foreign policy/national security team—unused, unpaid, but also containing a key Papadopoulos/Page link—must be more scrutinized.

100/ Every fact we have points to a Trump family conspiracy on Russia—the *whole family*. There are no exculpatory facts—so BEAR DOWN. {end}