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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
Primary night: Former President Donald Trump was dealt a blow in Georgia's gubernatorial primary as incumbent Gov Brian Kemp won decisively, trouncing former Sen. David Perdue, who had the money and backing of Trump and built his campaign on the false claim that 2020 was rigged.
Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s secretary of state who was attacked by Trump, is holding onto a slight lead against U.S. Rep. Jody Hice, barely crossing the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff.
In #GA14, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene defeated her Republican challenger Jennifer Strahan by a comfortable 70-30 margin.
Read 6 tweets
Democrats’ Infrastructure Deal will provide a massive fix for our nation’s roads, bridges, ports, and so much more.

These are real, substantial wins for our communities — so here’s a snapshot on how a few will benefit: 🧵
𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗡𝗘𝗖𝗧𝗜𝗖𝗨𝗧: Did you know 1 in 10 Connecticut households currently do not have internet?

Rep. @JahanaHayesCT helped deliver Dems’ Infrastructure deal to fix this. #CT05…
𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗛𝗔𝗠𝗣𝗦𝗛𝗜𝗥𝗘: Rep. @ChrisPappasNH helped secure $2,000,000,000 for NH to fix the 250 bridges and nearly 700 miles of highway in poor condition, providing safer commutes for NH communities. #NH01…
Read 14 tweets
GEORGIA: Despite Dems' 2020 triumphs, GA Rs still control state gov't & redistricting may be their last chance to reverse the slide.

The likeliest scenario: merging #GA06 Rep. Lucy McBath (D) & #GA07 Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) in northern ATL and drawing a 9R-5D map (right).
In the scenario above, McBath/Bourdeaux would have to face off in a primary for political survival. #GA07 and every other R district in the northern part of the state would have voted for Trump by 20%+ in 2020.

Rs would easily gain one seat towards the House majority. BUT...
There's also an outside chance Rs could attempt an even more aggressive gerrymander, targeting *both* #GA06 and #GA07 for a 10R-4D map.

In the scenario below, 10/14 districts would've voted for Trump by 15%+ points in 2020 - even though GA as a whole went for Biden.
Read 4 tweets
Congresswoman Carolyn Bourdeaux flipped #GA07 blue & helped put Georgia in the Dem column for the 1st time since 1992.

@Carolyn4GA7 uses her experience helping to rebuild GA’s economy in the Great Recession to tackle kitchen table issues for working families. #WomensHistoryMonth
Congresswoman Teresa Leger Fernandez fought for decades for equity & investment in the health & economic security of Latino & tribal communities.

@TeresaForNM’s expertise is vital as the House tackles a pandemic w/ disparate impact on these communities. #NM03 #WomensHistoryMonth
Congresswoman Marie Newman’s fight for #Equality4All was a national model years before she came to DC.

@Marie4Congress also works for health care, gun sense, and curbing economic inequality with workforce & infrastructure investment for a green economy. #IL03 #WomensHistoryMonth
Read 33 tweets
A RECAP of 2020 House races (now that #NY22 is finally resolved)

Dems have 222 House seats. Rs have 213 seats. They are 5 seats away from the majority

Rs flipped 14 Democratic seats & captured the Amash seat. Dems flipped 3 seats. The GOP net gain: 12 seats
The # of House GOP women grew 130%, from 13 to 30, in one cycle

13 Dem members lost in November. But House Rs didn't lose a single incumbent.

Dems flipped #GA07 (Biden+6) & #NC02 + #NC06, thanks to redistricting. The GOP flipped 11 Trump-won & 4 Biden-won districts
GOP flips by presidential margin:

#MN07 (Trump+30)
#NM02 (Trump+12)
#NY11 (Trump+11)
#UT04 (Trump+9)
#SC01 (Trump+6)
#OK05 (Trump+6)
#FL26 (Trump+5)
#IA01 (Trump+4)
#IA02 (Trump+4)
#MI03 (Trump+4)
#NY22 (Trump+??)
#CA48 (Biden+2)
#FL27 (Biden+3)
#CA21 (Biden+10)
#CA39 (Biden+10)
Read 3 tweets
I see a lot of convos today about Marjorie Taylor Greene's past controversial comments, thanks to @CNN & @mmfa

McCarthy told @axios he is disturbed/plans to speak with her

This narrative misses crucial context: NONE of this is new to political observers/GOP leaders. A thread >>
On June 17 ( a week after the June 9 #GA14 primary but well before an Aug 11 runoff) @MZanona & I reported on a trove of her racist/Islamophobic/QAnon comments

MTG is a product of MAGA internet. She built a following posting hours of videos of this stuff…
Among the worst MTG comments:

She called the '18 midterms “an Islamic invasion of our government”

She said Dems are “trying to keep the black people in a modern-day form of slavery”

“The most mistreated group of people in the United States today are white males"
Read 6 tweets
In 2017, they told me #GA07 could never be won by a Democrat. Now, as the only Democratic candidate in 2020 to flip a seat from red to blue, a lot of people have been asking how we did it. THREAD ⤵️
(2/8) We stayed focused on the issues that mattered, from health care to the economy.

I was the Georgia Senate Budget Director during the Great Recession, and I helped get our economy back on track. Georgians wanted leaders who cared about getting us through this crisis.
(3/8) My campaign was powered by more than 100 organizers, fellows, and interns, who ran a first-of-its-kind voter turnout effort in Gwinnett and Forsyth counties.

We talked to more than 18,000 voters — 12,000 of which voted early or by mail. #gapol #GA07
Read 8 tweets
Retiring 5th term #GA07 GOP Rep. Rob Woodall from House floor: "The best votes I took as a young freshman member were not the ones that John Boehner jammed through with all the Republicans voting Yes and all the Democrats voting No."
Woodall (R-GA): "The best votes that I I took freshman year were the ones that John Boehner jammed through with Nancy Pelosi's help that had about 50% of the Democrats and about 50% of the Republicans, and did big things that you just couldn't do alone..."
Woodall (R-GA): "...that required members to stand up and get outside of their ideological comfort zone and get into that space of how can we really make a difference."
Read 5 tweets
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.

Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Here are the 12 Trump '16 districts I can say with confidence Biden has flipped blue so far:


And the two Clinton '16 districts Trump has flipped red so far:

Here are the 11 districts that I'm still not 100% certain about ('16 winner):

#CA48 (Clinton)
#IL14 (Trump)
#IL17 (Trump)
#MI11 (Trump)
#NV03 (Trump)
#NJ03 (Trump)
#NY18 (Trump)
#NY19 (Trump)
#OH01 (Trump)
#TX15 (Clinton)
#TX28 (Clinton)

I'd be open to anyone's math on these.
Read 4 tweets
hello! While we're waiting for more presidential results, I thought I'd give you an update on the House. @DecisionDeskHQ projects that Republicans have won back 5 seats on net so far. Rs flipped 7 seats and Dems won back 2 thanks to redistricting in NC…
Seats projected to flip D to R, per @DecisionDeskHQ

#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)

Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
Democrats have also fallen short on many of their offensive targets to flip R-held seats: their most promising pickup opportunity is #GA07, where @DecisionDesk HQ has not projected a winner and we should (hopefully!) get more clarity today as more votes are counted/reported
Read 4 tweets
Every state has big stakes on the ballot — it's just some are facing a perfect storm where so much that matters is competitive at once.

So I'm starting this ongoing thread of states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can within 280 characters. (Let's do roughly one a day!)
1️⃣ North Carolina really is it:

—Could decide WH
—Could decide U.S. Senate majority
—Ds may gain at least 2 House seats. More?
—Can Ds keep governorship (& veto power)?
—Can Ds pick-up a legislative chamber?
—3 Supreme Court seats!👀
—AG, LG (if Gov vacancy...), SoS competitive
2️⃣ Montana is up there too:
—Could decide Senate majority!
—Open Gov race. Would be GOP's first win since 2000, likely give them trifecta. And it's Gianforte on the ballot.
—Open SoS & AG races
—An open, tight House race
—An intriguing Supreme Court race
—Gun control referendum
Read 40 tweets
Getting this thread going on what races to donate to….

Right now, 44 days out, is the best time to donate. A few states are early voting. Voters are paying attention and can still register.

Campaigns can still hire staff and pay for strategic, targeted ads and mailers.
Money thrown at races in Oct goes into media spin. Unclear if it's effective at persuasion.

Millions of $$$ from out of state donors, raised by national orgs, doesn't mean your race is competitive. So it's doubly important for us to pick a few races/states and be strategic.
It's sweet to ragedonate for RBG. But it's smarter to flip the Senate, cement the House majority, and win key states in the electoral college. All states and races aren't equal.

A few thousand $ to a House race or $1 million to an underfunded Senate race can make the difference.
Read 15 tweets
Today marks 50 days until Election Day. Our grassroots team has been talking to voters on a level never before seen in #GA07 and, as we enter the home stretch of this campaign, I wanted to share some of our accomplishments:
I'm proud that my campaign is powered by a diverse group of young people who are leading the important work of connecting with our communities and neighbors. Since May, our team has been joined by over 100 interns.
The scale of our grassroots outreach is a surefire sign that the ground in Georgia is changing, and voters are ready for better leadership. Over just the last couple of months, our team of volunteers has made nearly 100k phone calls to voters.
Read 6 tweets
The Jolt: A Holocaust smear enters the 14th District race for Congress, as @mtgreenee defended the lie that Hungarian-born billionaire George Soros helped send fellow Jews to death chambers during the Holocaust. #gapol…
Our jolt lede features @JustinGrayWSB’s sharp interview, which drew this response #gapol
A spokesman for @RichforGA - the nominee for Georgia’s 7th District - condemns @mtgreenee and calls for her to apologize. “It is awful that Ms. Greene would peddle in such a horrific anti-Semitic conspiracy,” says @jsimpsonDC. #gapol #ga07 Image
Read 3 tweets
NEW this morning from me and @Journo_Christal - how coronavirus and multiple national crises have complicated the battle for the House.…
Just a few months ago, Republicans thought they might have a chance - but now the coronavirus and a reckoning over race and policing have changed everything.
Republicans are banking on candidates like @RichforGA, an ER doctor splitting his time between intubating patients as his hospital risks COVID-19 exposure and making his pitch to voters in #GA07, in the suburbs of Atlanta.
Read 4 tweets
The debate over the hate-crimes measure is now starting in the state Senate, and Republican Brian Strickland has asked that it be engrossed to restrict amendments that supporters fear could jeopardize a compromise. It prevailed. #gapol
Before a full debate on hate-crimes, Senate lawmakers took up House Bill 838, which was designed to protect first-responders like police officers from "bias motivated" crimes. It passed 33-20 on a party-line vote and is headed to the Georgia House. #gapol
"A knife's edge." "On the precipice." Veteran Capitol observers out in the hallway stress that hate-crimes measure is no done deal yet, especially with the Senate's passage of this measure now pending in the House. #gapol
Read 20 tweets
A top rival to @Carolyn4GA7 endorsed her campaign on Sunday as new returns show she's poised to win the #ga07 Democratic nomination outright. #gapol…
@Carolyn4GA7 Says @NabilahforGA07: “We need to flip this district blue and keep it out of the hands of extremists. Carolyn Bourdeaux will give us a voice that represents us all." #gapol…
National outlets previously projected the #ga07 race to end in a runoff. Now @Carolyn4GA7 appears to have won the contest outright, and she’s declared victory. Her rivals have either conceded or said it’s likely there will be no runoff. #gapol…
Read 4 tweets
The latest county absentee returns show Democrat @Carolyn4GA7 is hovering at 49.4% of the vote, just shy of an outright victory with thousands of absentee ballots left to count. #gapol #ga07 ImageImage
Math is hard and my one’s look like sevens. I meant 48.9%. #ga07 Image
In Georgia’s 7th, Carolyn Bourdeaux inches closer to an outright win, and her allies are optimistic she can get there given absentee ballot trends. (Some of her rivals, too, say they won’t be surprised if she tops 50%). #gapol #ga07 Image
Read 7 tweets
The Jolt: Secretary of state seeks power to intervene if county election offices fail #gapol…
More jolt: Why the Democratic race for #ga07 is still unsettled, despite early projections of a runoff between @Carolyn4GA7 and @VoteBrendaLopez #gapol…
@Carolyn4GA7 @VoteBrendaLopez More Jolt: @GovKemp on Tuesday's election problems:
“I’m not too worried. I think there is plenty of time to fix the problems. I think there is a lot of motivation to do that and I’m certainly one to want to see that.” #gapol…
Read 3 tweets
Some of the polls in Georgia are closed -- here's a reminder of what's at stake. #gapol #gasen…
A few results are starting to trickle in, but we don’t expect significant numbers until at least after 10 p.m. #gapol #gasen Image
You can follow along here for results, though it's going to take a while #gapol…
Read 17 tweets

We must remember down-ballot candidates.

This is a list of progressive/leftist congressional candidates endorsed by at least one of these groups:


Please remember:


Double check your registration at least 1 MONTH 🗓 before any election you plant to vote in.

Also, endorsements are an ongoing process
Some races have 2 different candidates endorsed by different groups, so they’re both listed.

📖➡️ platform/issues link
💵➡️ donation link

If the pinned tweet is related to their campaign, I included it.

Now, onto the (long) list.
Read 83 tweets
Fact: Democrats represent 54% of all House districts but 95% (!) of the 100 districts with the highest shares of foreign-born residents.
The only Rs who represent districts in the top 100: #FL25 Diaz-Balart, #GA07 Woodall, #TX22 Olson, #TX24 Marchant, #TX02 Crenshaw. Dems have strong opportunities in 3/5 in 2020 so the Dem share could plausibly go up to 98% soon.
Flip side: Republicans represent 83% of the 100 districts with the highest shares of native-born residents & have strong opportunities in 4/17 Dem-held seats, so the GOP share could go up to 87% soon.
Read 3 tweets

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