Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #probability

Most recents (18)

šŸ§µ "#Possibility Architectures: Exploring Human #Communication with Generative #AI"

Today's SFI Seminar with ExFac Simon DeDeo @LaboratoryMinds (@CarnegieMellon), streaming now:
"A key feature of this is talk is that we make sense of what each other are saying IN PART by what they say, but ALSO by what we expect of them."
"Language transmits info against a background of expectations ā€“ syntactic, semantic, and this larger cultural spectrum. It's not just the choices of make but [how] we set ourselves up to make later choices."

@LaboratoryMinds re: work led by @clairebergey:
Read 15 tweets
My textbook with Kosuke Imai (@Harvard) is finally out!

Assuming no prior knowledge of statistics or coding and only minimal knowledge of math, DSS teaches the fundamentals of survey research, predictive models, and causal inference + how to analyze real-world data with R.

šŸ§µ.. Image
1/n: DSS is meant for complete beginners, regardless of whether they are in high school, in graduate school, or out of school altogether. #rstats #surveys #prediction #causality

Want to see for yourself? The first chapter is free here: bit.ly/dss_preview

Book outline: Image
2/n: We wrote DSS so that anyone could learn the skills we teach by following along with the exercises in the book on their own computer, without the help of an instructor. (Everything needed is either in the book or on the book's website.) #rstats #surveys #prediction #causality Image
Read 19 tweets
āŒ›ļø Making a Career in Data Science!

Folks, who want to break into Data Science but not sure how. Here are the list of skills you need in the exact order as below.

A thread šŸ§µšŸ‘‡
SQL - Knowledge of querying databases to fetch relevant data points is important throughout your career. #SQL

1/8
Python - If you are in tech domain, coding is a must skill, and Python is the most commonly used language in Data Science. #Python

2/8
Read 10 tweets
This just out: Physicians do not logically/correctly estimate the probability of outcomes resulting from sequences of events - a thread. #conjunctionfallacy #probability #medicaldecisionmaking #clinicalreasoning #innumeracy #numeracy jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanā€¦ @JAMANetworkOpen
In this article, we showed that physicians estimated the probability of two events both occurring as *more* likely than one or both of the individual events. This is logically impossible and consistent with the #conjunctionfallacy. This #bias can lead to catastrophic outcomes
The impetus for the study was an #OBGYN catastrophe that resulted, in part, from this bias. A woman presented in labor w brow presentation. For successful vaginal delivery, 2 events must happen: reversion to deliverable position, and vaginal delivery w/o #caesareansection
Read 20 tweets
#Options have same maths as #Insurance.

Insurance Companies win because:
1) #Mathematically Options are priced expensive,
2) With their deep pockets writing large enough number of options the #Probability works for them,
3) Endless Covenants to the Contract protect 'em
1/n
Thus #OptionSellers can hope to win OVER TIME if they have the same wherewithal as #Insurance Sellers, i.e.:
a) Deep Pockets
b) Very large number of trades over time
c) Math / Actuarial Skills
d) Legal Wherewithal.

Thus option sellers will be destroyed at some point.
2/n
#OptionBuyers are hoping beyond hope! They are in a worse position than #OptionSellers because:
#Probability is loaded against them & that makes a pressure to achieve #Extraordinary #Market Timing

3/n
Read 5 tweets
OPTION SELLING USING VIX : A THREAD

I am sharing my learnings of calculating my weekly and monthly range. Making a thread and tagging few famous traders' for wider reach if it could help anybody in anyway.
1/n
@Abhishekkar_ @ST_PYI @ITRADE191 @PRSundar64
DURING crash of last week of March 2020, my inquisitiveness led me to carry out a thorough research on the functioning parameters of #Nifty50. With the help of #research papers available on Nifty50 on #internet , i came across a detailed probability derivation of Volatility.
2/n
for option selling.
Any #newbee in #StockMarket has the biggest question of defining the range of #market, up to which it could scale or correct. Predicting/guessing this range requires a lot of experience which cost a lot of time and studies. Since, as per my observation...
3/n
Read 11 tweets
1. Is financial market pricing in some heightened Taiwan Strait war risk this week? Yes, a little. No perfect measure. With China on holiday last wk, can attribute some pop of 5-yr CDS price as caused by heighted attention, which happens around Oct with back to back national days
2. To put in context, China 5 Yr CDS value is 48.87, reveals a 0.81% implied probability of default, on a 40% recovery rate supposed. US 5 Yr CDS is 17.4, reveals a 0.29% implied probability of default. Recent increase in US mostly by the debt ceiling fight. #MintTheCoin hahaha
3. @PredictIt betting market doesn't have a Taiwan specific market, but has 3 China related contracts. Betting on who would be confirmed for next US Ambassador to China, and Pres. Xi's chance of staying as party General Secretary for next 10 years.
Read 11 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNetĀ 09/01/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/09/01/daiā€¦
"The Unthinkable Has Become Possible" - Germany Faces A Political Revolution In 4 Weeks

zerohedge.com/political/unthā€¦

#germany #PartisanPolitics
Probability and rationality ā€” trickier than most peopleĀ think

larspsyll.wordpress.com/2021/08/26/proā€¦

#probability #rationality #heuristics #judgement
Read 8 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNetĀ 08/01/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/08/01/daiā€¦
Seeing Theory - A visual introduction to probability and statistics.

seeing-theory.brown.edu

OKAI - An Interactive Introduction to Artificial Intelligence (AI)

okai.brown.edu

#OnlineEducation #probability #statistics #InteractiveGraphics #ArtificialIntelligence
Read 8 tweets
Does #risk management involve a lot of maths?
Yes and No!

It's a well-rounded discipline.
For #Actuarial, Insurance, Financial Engineering, Quantitative Finance and Investment Management, Mathematical Trading, and Financial Risk Assignments, you might require a lot of Maths and Statistics.

Is like asking whether we need milk and sugar for making ice cream ;)
Read 9 tweets
I am into risk management.
Most of the risk managers are now required to have an advance background in operating technological applications such online trading and price data terminals (Bloomberg/Reuters, etc),
FINTECH, Crypto Assets, Digital Marketing based vendor systems, DLT(Distributional Ledger Technologies) - Blockchain, AI / ALGO based trading in financial markets, Derivatives and Risk Pricing Engines and other Software Computational Programs,
Risk MIS/ERP Project Management Tasks, 4GL Fourth Generation Languages, Data Warehousing, BI, MI, SQL, NoSQL, and so on etc.
Read 6 tweets
Maybe not as prominently, but it's been with us for a long time: from the application of #probability to testimony & judgment from late 1700s, to #RacialDiscrimination by the actuaries of the late 1800s, to the eugenic evil of #IBMandTheHolocaust. That we're now more conscious...
...of 'the #algorithm' doesn't mean we've become any better at preventing its abuse.

#AppliedStatistics is still inherently #amoral and more often than not #unethical-by-default now it's at #AI speed, and wielded by those who value #prediction over human rights & human lives...
...and the question remains, now public awareness is rising: what will we DO about it this time?

Reactive outrage, protest and #wackamole litigation (as necessary as those may be) will not deliver the strategic, systemic solutions we need for a just and fair #InformationSociety.
Read 3 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNetĀ 07/28/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/07/28/daiā€¦
Using robots to probe how people react to simple behaviours



#robots #brain #social
Ice retreat in Wilkes Basin of East Antarctica during a warm interglacial



#IceMelt #glaciers
Read 10 tweets
#Nifty50 Index chart shows "Step and Stairway pattern" Image
Classic Bullish Reversal #Nifty Image
HangSeng too showing Trend Continuation Bullish reversal pattern.. Image
Read 151 tweets

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