Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #probability

Most recents (15)

#Options have same maths as #Insurance.

Insurance Companies win because:
1) #Mathematically Options are priced expensive,
2) With their deep pockets writing large enough number of options the #Probability works for them,
3) Endless Covenants to the Contract protect 'em
Thus #OptionSellers can hope to win OVER TIME if they have the same wherewithal as #Insurance Sellers, i.e.:
a) Deep Pockets
b) Very large number of trades over time
c) Math / Actuarial Skills
d) Legal Wherewithal.

Thus option sellers will be destroyed at some point.
#OptionBuyers are hoping beyond hope! They are in a worse position than #OptionSellers because:
#Probability is loaded against them & that makes a pressure to achieve #Extraordinary #Market Timing

Read 5 tweets

I am sharing my learnings of calculating my weekly and monthly range. Making a thread and tagging few famous traders' for wider reach if it could help anybody in anyway.
@Abhishekkar_ @ST_PYI @ITRADE191 @PRSundar64
DURING crash of last week of March 2020, my inquisitiveness led me to carry out a thorough research on the functioning parameters of #Nifty50. With the help of #research papers available on Nifty50 on #internet , i came across a detailed probability derivation of Volatility.
for option selling.
Any #newbee in #StockMarket has the biggest question of defining the range of #market, up to which it could scale or correct. Predicting/guessing this range requires a lot of experience which cost a lot of time and studies. Since, as per my observation...
Read 11 tweets
1. Is financial market pricing in some heightened Taiwan Strait war risk this week? Yes, a little. No perfect measure. With China on holiday last wk, can attribute some pop of 5-yr CDS price as caused by heighted attention, which happens around Oct with back to back national days
2. To put in context, China 5 Yr CDS value is 48.87, reveals a 0.81% implied probability of default, on a 40% recovery rate supposed. US 5 Yr CDS is 17.4, reveals a 0.29% implied probability of default. Recent increase in US mostly by the debt ceiling fight. #MintTheCoin hahaha
3. @PredictIt betting market doesn't have a Taiwan specific market, but has 3 China related contracts. Betting on who would be confirmed for next US Ambassador to China, and Pres. Xi's chance of staying as party General Secretary for next 10 years.
Read 11 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 09/01/2021…
"The Unthinkable Has Become Possible" - Germany Faces A Political Revolution In 4 Weeks…

#germany #PartisanPolitics
Probability and rationality — trickier than most people think…

#probability #rationality #heuristics #judgement
Read 8 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 08/01/2021…
Seeing Theory - A visual introduction to probability and statistics.

OKAI - An Interactive Introduction to Artificial Intelligence (AI)

#OnlineEducation #probability #statistics #InteractiveGraphics #ArtificialIntelligence
Read 8 tweets
Does #risk management involve a lot of maths?
Yes and No!

It's a well-rounded discipline.
For #Actuarial, Insurance, Financial Engineering, Quantitative Finance and Investment Management, Mathematical Trading, and Financial Risk Assignments, you might require a lot of Maths and Statistics.

Is like asking whether we need milk and sugar for making ice cream ;)
Read 9 tweets
I am into risk management.
Most of the risk managers are now required to have an advance background in operating technological applications such online trading and price data terminals (Bloomberg/Reuters, etc),
FINTECH, Crypto Assets, Digital Marketing based vendor systems, DLT(Distributional Ledger Technologies) - Blockchain, AI / ALGO based trading in financial markets, Derivatives and Risk Pricing Engines and other Software Computational Programs,
Risk MIS/ERP Project Management Tasks, 4GL Fourth Generation Languages, Data Warehousing, BI, MI, SQL, NoSQL, and so on etc.
Read 6 tweets
Maybe not as prominently, but it's been with us for a long time: from the application of #probability to testimony & judgment from late 1700s, to #RacialDiscrimination by the actuaries of the late 1800s, to the eugenic evil of #IBMandTheHolocaust. That we're now more conscious...
...of 'the #algorithm' doesn't mean we've become any better at preventing its abuse.

#AppliedStatistics is still inherently #amoral and more often than not #unethical-by-default now it's at #AI speed, and wielded by those who value #prediction over human rights & human lives...
...and the question remains, now public awareness is rising: what will we DO about it this time?

Reactive outrage, protest and #wackamole litigation (as necessary as those may be) will not deliver the strategic, systemic solutions we need for a just and fair #InformationSociety.
Read 3 tweets
My lessons from market in last 12 years: I will share my journey also. Long post ahead.

1. Do not search for holy grail, does not exist.

My Journey: I started in 2008 with no knowledge, started with random trades, then came to know about technical analysis, dug deeper 1/n
Spent many sleepless nights in search of a system which is never wrong. Believe me if you are doing so right now, stop and relax. Making money in markets is a marathon and not sprint. Sit back, decide what you want from markets, devise a plan and find tools to execute. 2/n
Search for a holy grail will only frustrate you which will cause you to turn erratic/random in your trades. Markets are CRUEL. One mistake and your month's hard work is gone. You need to understand it before you blow your account and not after. No use of self pity.3/n
Read 20 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 07/28/2020…
Using robots to probe how people react to simple behaviours

#robots #brain #social
Ice retreat in Wilkes Basin of East Antarctica during a warm interglacial

#IceMelt #glaciers
Read 10 tweets
#Nifty50 Index chart shows "Step and Stairway pattern" Image
Classic Bullish Reversal #Nifty Image
HangSeng too showing Trend Continuation Bullish reversal pattern.. Image
Read 151 tweets

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