Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #scenario

Most recents (7)

A thread on imagining impacts of the #Metaverse on “my” world. How will the job of a #geopolitics analyst be different? How will this new platform change international relations in general and the #Gulf in particular? Feel free to add your take, it’s simply thinking out loud.
First, meetings & events. #Zoom events are here to stay, alongside in-person ones. But a digital event on #Metaverse could be so much better and closer to a real-life experience, enhanced by instant access to resources 2/
Then, outputs. Will it make sense to write papers when you can produce an interactive output combining texts, recordings, images/videos in the form of a meta-research on #geopolitics on #Metaverse? 3/
Read 8 tweets
If the connotation of risk is an intertwined concept and is difficult to quantify, how does a Risk Officer look at it?
Is there any way other than using copula models to determine systemic risk with long tails or a black swan event?
@CQFInstitute @GARP_Risk @SOActuaries
I guess we are worried about Market and Credit Risks or other interrelated financial risks which can create conjoint loss given events.
Any #Gaussian distribution model will enable you to model and predict potential Operational, Liquidity and Balance sheet AL - (Asset - liability) Mismatch, Market and Credit drove losses under normal market conditions.
Read 32 tweets
Hmm. When is a "#scenario" NOT a "#forecast" - literally a "#prediction" or estimate of future events?

You may have multiple forecasts and, as with the weather, some may not come to pass. But you don't model scenarios that can't ever happen. What would be the point? Image
Again, and as with scientific papers, if people are reporting on something it's a good idea to publish (a link to) *the whole thing*. News reports may pick up on bits that are interesting, but #EvidenceMatters!
Read 3 tweets
La rigidità dei Paesi nordici è miope e va in qualche modo scalfita.
Lo #scenario infatti è di medio periodo ⤵️…
Secondo un piano di risposta ipotizzato dall'Imperial College of London, la #pandemia potrebbe durare fino a 18 mesi, con #quarantena periodica per una #mitigazione del #contagio, considerata la difficoltà di una soppressione definitiva in tempi brevi.⤵️…
Si aggiunga la stretta interconnessione della #supplychain, che rende fragile qualsiasi produzione, legata a #commercio e #trasporti internazionali.…

Nessuna #economia o Stato da solo può sostenere questi tempi senza interventi coordinati e massicci. ⤵️
Read 6 tweets
A me piace trarre dagli eventi spunti di riflessione. E uso Twitter per condividerli.
Prima considerazione, o meglio quesito, è quanto e per quanto tempo saremo disposti a barattare la ns. #salute con le ns. #libertà?…
Il secondo è in che misura, per lo stesso motivo, accetteremo l'intrusione delle #tecnologie nella nostra privacy?…
Il terzo, che racchiude entrambi i precedenti, è: stiamo assistendo a un fenomeno temporaneo, destinato a rientrare con la fine dell'#emergenza, o ci stiamo abituando a farci erodere spazi di #democrazia?

Pensiamo alle recenti dichiarazioni di #Fico.…
Read 10 tweets
#Thread : pourquoi vous devez regarder #Evangelion (maintenant qu'il est disponible sur @NetflixFR) en 11 points.
L'histoire en quelques mots : un jour un "Ange" débarque dans un Tokyo post-apo pour tout casser. Shinji, tout juste adolescent, va devoir l'affronter, lui, ainsi que ses peurs et ses doutes, dans un robot géant. D'autres Anges suivront, mais qui sont-ils ?? Suspens.
1. L'#openning. Commençons par le commencement. L'intro laisse percevoir toute la profondeur et l'intrigue de la série. Les personnages sont présentés avec l'image qu'ils veulent montrer d'eux, seuls. Et il est super bien avec la musique et tout.
Read 23 tweets

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