Thread by @Charles_Lister

The #Trump admin has totally skewered #Iran policy. Maximum pressure has lacked *any* substantive strategy or realistic end-game.

Now we lack allies & credibility.

#Iran's hardliners are laughing - they calculated they could hit #Saudi with a high probability of impunity.

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1173953850107203584

Following #Iran's attack on @Saudi_Aramco, @stevenacook writes:

- "Events in the Persian Gulf have demonstrated to #Iran’s leaders that they can escalate with impunity... If #Trump does not respond militarily, the U.S. should just pack up and go home."

foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/17/thi…

@Saudi_Aramco @stevenacook Few if any people like the prospect of *any* military action, but just take stock of what took place the other day in #Saudi.

If the U.S. fails to respond here, we invite more malign acts.

As one colleague just said to me: it'd be *THE* inflection point for U.S in #MiddleEast.

@Saudi_Aramco @stevenacook I have yet to hear one logical argument for how this is "working."

If working means provoking the #IRGC into escalatory acts of military aggression, bravo. we're "winning."

Except we have no will to respond & no allies willing to back us even if we did.

https://twitter.com/VP/status/1173997047114096640

@Saudi_Aramco @stevenacook Beyond calling for a response, @Mikeknightsiraq says #Iran's attack on @Saudi_Aramco was a "highly effective... accurate" attack displaying "finesse" in "weaponeering" -- some targets were hit w. explosive payloads, others w. non-explosive kinetic force.

washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

@Saudi_Aramco @stevenacook @Mikeknightsiraq I talked about #Iran catalyzing a potential U.S. "inflection point" in the #MiddleEast earlier...

Here's prominent #UAE commentator @Abdulkhaleq_UAE's take on concern that #Washington is unlikely to respond:

https://twitter.com/Abdulkhaleq_UAE/status/1174007606345703430

@Saudi_Aramco @stevenacook @Mikeknightsiraq @Abdulkhaleq_UAE "In truth, Qassem Soleimani & the #IRGC machine have got the US and our #Gulf allies just where they want them to be..."

My comments to @Joyce_Karam's latest on #Iran's attack on #Saudi & the debate over any U.S. response:

thenational.ae/world/gcc/pomp…

@Saudi_Aramco @stevenacook @Mikeknightsiraq @Abdulkhaleq_UAE @Joyce_Karam If this represents the scope of the U.S. response to #Iran's attack on @Saudi_Aramco, then Qassem Soleimani & the #IRGC leadership are laughing.

Watch carefully now for more incidents - likely in #Iraq.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1174305447513186304

@Saudi_Aramco @stevenacook @Mikeknightsiraq @Abdulkhaleq_UAE @Joyce_Karam #Saudi has confirmed that 18 drones (Delta wing UAVs) & 7 cruise missiles (Quds-1) - all operated by #Iran - were involved in the attack on @Saudi_Aramco.

All 25 projectiles came from "the north" (i.e. not from #Yemen).

@Saudi_Aramco @stevenacook @Mikeknightsiraq @Abdulkhaleq_UAE @Joyce_Karam "This is the advent of C21st drone warfare in the #MiddleEast.. There's no technologically perfect solution.. They're [the militias] only just scratching the surface of what drones can do.. This is the tip of the iceberg."

- @MiddleEastInst's Bilal Saab:

ft.com/content/f2a73b…

@Saudi_Aramco @stevenacook @Mikeknightsiraq @Abdulkhaleq_UAE @Joyce_Karam @MiddleEastInst BREAKING - #Saudi-owned media suggests #Saudi jets may have taken part in airstrikes that hit #Iran-backed militia positions in eastern #Syria yesterday.

https://twitter.com/IndyArabia/status/1174358626879836160

NB - More strikes just hit the same area 1hr ago.

@Saudi_Aramco @stevenacook @Mikeknightsiraq @Abdulkhaleq_UAE @Joyce_Karam @MiddleEastInst While a sizable pinch of salt should be given to reports of #Saudi strikes in #Syria's al-Bukamal yesterday, there were strikes.

They hit the Fatemiyoun Brigade, who acknowledged the strikes & posted [unremarkable] images:

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1173956016138063874