Thread by @swardley

X : Thoughts on Iran?
Me : Assassination of a senior military figure some seven days after joint Iran, Russia and China naval drills with ever closer trade talks? I think Wang Yi called it - dialogue not force should be the basis of international trade relations.

X : This has nothing to do with trade relations.
Me : Oh ... pull the other one, it has bells on it.

This has probably been one of Trump's daftest set of moves. There was a real opportunity when he was first elected to build a new trade relationship, to invest in Iran, to change the balance towards the US ... instead, China is the one playing all the right moves.

On an international setting, the strategy hasn't been coherent over time. Hence you have to conclude this is for domestic audiences - appearance of being tough etc. Personally, I'd have gone with images of Trump riding bare-chested on a horse ... you can do a lot with photoshop.

X : Do you think the US troops will be kicked out of Iraq?
Me : The Parliament vote? Symbolism. But then, there's symbolism on all sides here. I suspect the main beneficiary over time will be China's growing dominance in both Iran and Iraq. I don't understand US policy here.

Ah ha ... just seen @realDonaldTrump response. Excellent. De-escalation. Iran sent strong signals with a measured response, the US has responded in kind. Good stuff. Opens the door to future discussions.