Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #pce

Most recents (24)

Today’s #CPI report for May showed another very firm depiction of where #inflation currently resides in the U.S., with #coreCPI (excluding volatile food and energy components) printing at 0.44% month-over-month and 5.33% year-over-year.
Meanwhile, #headlineCPI data printed 0.12% month-over-month and came in just above 4% year-over-year, with declines in #energy components and some food prices being offset by gains in #shelter and used cars and trucks.
Overall, headline #inflation does appear to be moderating at a faster pace and we believe that the trend in inflation (despite the firmness of core measures in today’s report) is broadly heading in the right direction, relative to the @federalreserve’s inflation target.
Read 16 tweets
Hello Monday!

Slow start to the week with 🇯🇵 machine tool orders -3.5% as the debt ceiling drama continues in the background

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia ↗️ with 🗾 breaking to multi-year highs

$NIKK 31086 +0.9%
$SSEC 3296 +0.4%
$TWII 16181 +0.05%
$HSI 19722 +1.4%
$KOSPI 2557 +0.75%
$IDX 6741 +0.6%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7263 -0.2%

India ↗️
$BSE 61895 +0.25%
Europe ↔️ with $DAX failing at 16300

$DAX 16241 -0.2%
$FTSE 7777 +0.25%
$CAC 7484 -0.1%
$AEX 768 +0.1%
$IBEX 9290 +0.4%
$MIB 27369 -0.55%
$SMI 11558 -0.1%
$MOEX 2645 +0.75%

$VSTOXX 16.22 🔺

$DAX range = 15880 - 16324 ♉️🔝
Read 11 tweets

The Bear's take:

•Unresolved Debt ceiling
•Friday's negative day and bearish candlesticks
• Several neg. divergences
•Leading stocks reversed
#VVIX bullish engulfing candle and #VIX1D daily higher highs higher lows points to more vol ahead
•GDP maybe ↓


The Bull's take

• Indices up week on high volume
•Buy the dip: Bullish action
•Volatility indicators are subdued
• $NDX, $FAANG, $SMH in good health
• $SPX, $NDX higher highs and higher lows
•Market broke out above resistance
•Breadth thrust last Wednesday

Our take

•Debt ceiling will be solved
#PCE will come lower
#GDP will be OK
•Breakout zone is likely to be retested this week
•Price is firmly in positive Gamma
•We remain cautious due to still internal market weakness

#ES_F #Options #Trading $SPY #SPX $SPX
Read 5 tweets
Hell Thursday!

Ahead of today's Q1 🇺🇸 GDP report, the @AtlantaFed has reduced its projected growth by a whopping -140 bps to only +1.1% 😮

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia closed broadly ↗️

$NIKK 28458 +0.15%
$SSEC 3286 +0.65%
$TWII 15412 +0.25%
$HSI 19812 +0.3%
$KOSPI 2496 +0.45%
$IDX 6942 +0.45%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7293 -0.3%

India ↗️
$BSE 60500 +0.35%
Europe trying to muster a bid ↔️

$DAX 15804 +0.05%
$FTSE 7854 unch
$CAC 7497 +0.4%
$AEX 749 -0.15%
$IBEX 9308 +0.15%
$MIB 27166 +0.2%
$SMI 11395 +0.25%
$MOEX 2631 +0.4%

$VSTOXX 18.33 🔻

$DAX range = 15680 - 16066 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
🗓️ 2020 - 2021 - 2022 + 2023/Q1 Returns

1) #SPX

S&P 500 Endeksinin geçen 3 yıldaki ve bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki getirileri
2) #IXIC

#Nasdaq Endeksinin geçen 3 yıldaki ve bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki getirileri.
3) #DAX

#DAX Endeksinin geçen 3 yıldaki ve bu yılın ilk çeyreğindeki getirileri.
Read 9 tweets
Feb #PCE, #Fed's preferred measure of #inflation, came in cooler than expected.

But 1M doesn't make a trend.

What does the #PCE tell and what it all means for the #Fed?

Let's dig deeper.

A thread.

As I said in in the Jan #PCE thread, Jan reading looks a lot like Oct. Both were outliers in an otherwise deflationary trend since July.


2/8 Image
#PCE services #inflation with real rent #inflation (ALNRI) has been quite tame since July 2022.

3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
Time to update this chart.

With everything going lately this may be the single most important chart to look at.

What do the latest numbers tell us?

A thread.


I made the quoted tweet on Feb 2 which was before Jan employment report, #CPI , #PPI and #PCE when most were still talking about great Dec numbers.

In the meantime most indicators showed higher #inflation numbers but, as I noted beforehand, that is only seasonality.

2/16 ImageImage
As I suspected, some took advantage of these seasonality numbers and revisions of SA data (#CPI) to wrongly point to #inflation picking up.

And even worse, the #Fed embraced this false narrative and hiked 25 last week despite the ongoing banking crisis.

Read 16 tweets
Jan #PCE came in hotter than expected tdy.

After Jan employment report, #CPI and #PCE some have been calling for the #Fed to step up their hikes in order to solve the #inflation problem.

Should the #Fed do it?

A thread.

Before we go into the #PCE details, here is a comprehensive overview of the Jan employment report:


Also here is a comprehensive overview of the Jan #CPI and what that means for the #inflation going forward:

Read 13 tweets
Herkese hayırlı cumalar🤗Bugün #ABD tarafından #PCE enflasyon verisi açıklandı ve beklentilerin üzerinde %0.2 artış gerçekleşti (%0.6 oldu).Peki PCE (personal consumption expenditures) nedir ? #enflasyon ve #Bitcoin dolaylı etkisi ne olur ? kısaca bahsedelim
PCE,ABD'de tüketici fiyatlarının değişimini ölçen bir enflasyon göstergesidir.ABD Merkez Bankası (#Fed), enflasyonu kontrol altında tutmak için PCE enflasyonunu yakından takip etmektedir ve enflasyon hedefini belirlerken PCE enflasyonu verilerini kullanmaktadır.
Sonuç olarak, PCE enflasyon verisinin beklentinin üzerinde gelmesi enflasyon endişelerini artırabilir ve Fed'in #faiz politikasına ilişkin beklentileri etkileyebilir.Aşağıda görebileceğiniz gibi ekim 2022'den beri yükseliş içerisinde.Peki #Bitcoin dolaylı etkisi ne olur ?
+++🧵 Veriyi daha detaylı incelemek isterseniz 👉https://tradin
Read 23 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Macro Review 🧵


Don’t you find it amazing how quickly the phrases “Transitory Goldilocks” and “Immaculate Disinflation” have entered the #macro vocabulary?

Where did they come from? Why?

Let’s start with “Immaculate Disinflation”

Core #PCE rose .72% in Q4 2022 or +2.88% annualized.

The Fed has to be pleased with this, but given the pace of rate hikes, this is not all that surprising

Chart: Core #PCE

Wages have also started to decelerated quickly - now +4.6% y/y

Chart: US average hourly earnings y/y
Read 20 tweets
Hello Friday and the week to date

$GBP +0.12%
$GOLD +0.1%
$USD -0.19%

$TLT +0.73%
$HYG +0.29%
$TNX +0.26%

$COMPQ +3.34%
$NIKK +3.05%
$DAX +0.66%

$DBA +2.16%
#Bitcoin +1.47%
$COPPER +0.47%
$SILVER +038%
$DBC -0.16%
$WTIC -0.77%
$NATGAS -10.13%

Let's dig into the market 🧮!
Asia finished the week on ↗️

$NIKK 27383 +0.05%
$TWII 14933 +0.05%
$HSI 22689 +0.55%
$KOSPI 2484 +0.62%
$IDX 6899 +0.5%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7494 +0.35%

India ↘️🐻
$BSE 59085 -1.85%
Europe trading ↗️ but tight

$DAX 15147 +0.1%
$FTSE 7770 +0.1%
$CAC 7171 +0.05%
$AEX 750 +0.3%
$IBEX 9039 +0.05%
$MIB 26246 +0.1%
$SMI 11329 +0.1%
$MOEX 2177 +0.45%

$VSTOXX 17.89

$DAX range = 14812 - 15580 ♉️
Read 11 tweets
At first glance, Nov #CPI was somewhat better-than-expected report (headline MoM slightly lower than expectations -0.1% vs 0%) and mostly in line (YoY headline, as well as MoM&YoY core).

But in the details #inflation is much weaker than gets recognized.

A thread.

Unadjusted headline #CPI is down for the 2nd M in a row with -0.31% which is the lowest print since Apr 2020 (-0.67%).

In the last 8 yrs there were only 2M with materially lower prints (Apr 2020 and Jan 2015 -0.47%)!

2/17 Image
Unadjusted headline in Dec 2022 (-0.31%) is the 6th lowest in 8 yrs but 3 of these prints were almost identical (Dec 2018 -0.32%, Nov 2018 -0.33% and Dec 2015 -0.34%).

In Apr 2020 the economy was on forced lockdown, and in 2015/late 2018 #deflation was a problem.

Read 17 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

My Q12023 outlook reflects the massive forces current under way 🧵

1> Fed, Treasury, and big market players (reverse repo) who are draining liquidity from the markets will make for a messy start for risk assets to start the new year.

This coincides with 🥐🪟 of weakness into Jan 10.

2> Cheap Russian oil (less than $60/B) is being directed to our most important manufacturing ‘partners' (China and India).

Because they are well supplied, goods inflation is unlikely to rise in the hear term.…
Read 7 tweets
💥💥💥 OMG, can you believe what happened in 2022?! 💥💥💥 Time for a recap 🧵👇

1/ First off, there was this crazy high inflation that was happening in countries all around the world 💰💸. It was causing all sorts of economic problems and making life hard for a lot of people. #inflation #PCE Image
2/ Then, the Omicron coronavirus variant started spreading and it was a total nightmare 🤒🤮. People were getting sick left and right and it was just chaos. #COVIDIsAirborne Image
Read 15 tweets
Did the #ransomware attack at @HaverAnalytics result in an inadvertent #FOMC projection error?


#FOMC presser (12/14) contained a statement by #Powell that seemed at odds with incoming data

- #Powell said “we’re going into next year with higher inflation” vs Sept FOMC

As their SEP (survey of economic projections) shows:

- ‘22 raised 4.8% vs 4.5%
- this raised 2023 inflation
- and added to “higher for longer”

But here is what is at ‘odds’

- the MoM% chg in inflation
- would have to be staggeringly high to get to #Fed 4.8%
Read 5 tweets
Nov #CPI was the 2nd better-than-expected report in a row.

The last time that happened was, prepare yourself, in Oct 2018!

It didn't even happen during the lockdowns in 2020 making this report all the more significant.

Let's delve deeper.

A thread.

On an unadjusted basis headline #CPI was down -0.1% MoM, the lowest MoM reading since April 2020!

Back then the economy was on forced lockdown and this is only second to that lowest 2 readings (Mar-Apr 2020) in the recent history.

3M moving average of headline #CPI (MoM unadjusted) is 0.17% which is 2.1% annualized, well BELOW the #Fed's #inflation target.

I already explained this but for the ones that are reading this for the first time, yes, you read that right - 2.1% #CPI is way below the target

Read 16 tweets
The #FederalReserve Chairman #JeromePowell spoke indicating the Fed not pivoting but slowing interest rate increases if the #StockMarket behaves & #PCE & #CPI inflation data is OK.

#Stocks have been vulnerable to THE KISS OF DEATH.

Let's take todays #PCE Data report 1-by-1

1.) Jobless claims - close enough to market expectation (Neutral)
2.) Continuing jobless - higher than previous (Fed will like this, so good for stocks, sadly)
Read 23 tweets
Oct #CPI came in way better than consensus estimates and even better than I projected.

This is only the 2nd beat on the headline and 3rd on the core #CPI this yr.

Does that mean the #CPI has really started to come down and the #Fed can #pivot?



In the details this was a good report. MoM unadjusted:
1) Food +0.7%, same as Sep
2) Energy +1.0% vs -2.6% in Sep due to higher gas prices (+3.1% vs -5.6% in Sep), while #electricity and #natgas went down (-1.3% and -4.0% respectively vs +0.8% and +2.6% respectively in Sep)

3) Apparel unexpectedly went down by -0.6% vs +2.2% in Sep
4) New vehicles edged up to +0.5% vs +0.4% in Sep
5) Used vehicles and trucks -2.3%, slower than in Sep (-4.2%)
6) Medical care commodities -0.02% vs -0.09% in Sep
7) Alcoholic beverages +0.8% vs +0.1% in Sep

Read 18 tweets
Amid the election today it is easy to forget we get the Oct #CPI Thursday.

#CPI is the most important economic report this week.

So where will the Oct figure print?

A thread.

In prior months my estimates were ahead of both consensus and the Cleveland #Fed.

They also turned out to be more optimistic than the actual numbers.

Non #CPI/#PCE indicators are showing a clear #disinflation, even MoM rent #deflation:

Rents make 32% of the #CPI (about 40% of the core #CPI) and are therefore the crucial component.

Even if we seasonally adjust them, rents are showing clear declines, the largest in at least 5 yrs:

Read 8 tweets
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.

Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022

#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976

Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After technical oversold and very negative sentiment in Sep month, #StockMarket was finally able to reverse direction this month. $DJIA had the best month since 1976 (+14%). $NDX was underperformed (5%) compared to $SPX (8.8%), $RUT(11%).

2. Let's look at US 10Y #Bond Yield price action. It was very volatile and tested 4.3% Jun'08 high before reversing -9.8% to the end of the month. This month it finished up 5.7%. RSI did not make new high at Oct 21 when it reached peak 4.33% (bearish reversal)
#StockMarket Image
Read 53 tweets
The #Fed is watching closely the employment reports to get a better understanding where #inflation is and where it is heading.

Why they do it and what exactly are they looking for in the labor mkt to know for sure the #inflation has peaked?

Let's delve deeper.

A thread.

The #Fed is led by theoretical concepts like the Phillips Curve.

It was first introduced in 1958 and since then updated in several versions.

All of these versions involve #inflation or wages and UR.

So let's explain it in more detail.

2/17 Image
wage growth = LT wage growth - f(UR) + inflation expectations

f(UR) - function of unemployment rate

High #inflation leads to higher #inflation expectations.

With higher expected #inflation workers demand higher wages.

Hence companies are forced to raise consumer prices.

Read 17 tweets
#PCE #Core #Inflation keeps rising.

Main indicator for the #FederalReserve when judging whether or not to continue raising #interestrates.

#Powell was quite clear in his speeches that they will continue raising "into pain" as long as price stability is not achieved.

By "into pain", they are primarily referring to their dual mandate of price stability (#inflation) and maximum #Employment.

But there is not much pain showing up in the job market.

Last weekly jobless claims hit a 5-month low.…
So to summarize, #TheFed has 2 jobs:
1. Reduce #inflation (not done)
2. Maximize #employment (done)

And they've been adamant about raising #rates until 1. is done, even at temporary setbacks to 2.

Unless they plan on pulling a #BoE, anything short of #75bps/#100bps is hopium.
Read 4 tweets
What really causes inflation? 🧵

[a thread for normies - like me]
2/ The problem with #inflation is that it's a very personal experience.

As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.

In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:

* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.

** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.

*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
Read 25 tweets
75 is a done deal but a weird one.

On one hand we have negative growth and #disinflation.

On the other we have the #Fed talking as hawkish as ever with the mkt expecting it to go 75 on Wed.

What will the #Fed do, and why, in Nov and beyond?

A thread.

Let me start by saying, regardless of the mkt expecting it, hiking 75 next week is a mistake.

Actually any hike is a mistake.

How can I say this when many have said (including the #Fed lately) that hikes need to be more aggressive in order to "kill" the #inflation?

Many still seem to neglect the fact that monetary policy works with a lag.

It takes time for the #Fed rate change to be absorbed through the system (transmission mechanism).

How long does it take?

Estimates range anywhere from 6M to 1.5 yrs.


Read 17 tweets

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