Thread by @hxhassan

Just in.

ISIS media outlet, which usually limits its productions to news about its leader or spokesman and top-level events, is announcing something soon.

A significant announcement by ISIS coming up.

I’ll be sharing, translating and analyzing on the go, here.

Isis announcement just dropped.

A new spokesman by the name of Abu Hamza al-Qurayshi, who just confirmed the death of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and the spokesman Abu al-Hassan al-Muhajir

Isis appoints Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi as its new leader, Emir al-Moemineen (the emir of the faithful).

So both the spokesman and the new leader of ISIS claim descent from the Meccan tribe of Quraysh.

The spokesman asks followers to pledge allegiance to the new caliph

The 8-minute audio is mostly to mention the names and ask followers to pledge allegiance to the new leader. He says that won’t change anything about the group, “it is remaining” and is now near the shores of Europe unlike before.

No specifics given about who these two leaders are.

But Baghdadi’s successor claims descent from the Hashemite clan of Prophet Mohammed; his title includes that. The spokesman’s kunya only says “Qurashi” so he’s from the bigger tribe of Mohammed, not necessarily the same clan.

The ISIS announcement confirms for the first time that the former spokesman was from Saudi Arabia.

Detailed take on the speech later, but the spokesman sounds rhetorically more able than the former spokesman.

The way he reads verses from the Quran suggests he’s a religious scholar.

Also he mentioned that the new leader is a long-standing commander & cleric at the same time.

There is no way to narrow down who these leaders might be. Too many tribes in the region can claim lineage from the prophet tribe of Quraysh.

Unless insiders leak it to Iraqis, but at this point only a small circle at the helm of ISIS would know.

Although it's hard to narrow down who this new leader of ISIS might be, it's possible to draw a profile of him even before the ISIS speech was released. My thoughts:

For example, we thought he couldn't be someone whose profile was publicly known before (a la Zarqawi who'd been known before he got to Iraq).

He must have joined the group young, rose up through the ranks in IRAQ.

From the speech, we get few hints about Baghdadi's successor:

• a long-standing member
• a field commander
• a jihadi cleric
• a veteran of the Iraqi jihad (inference from the claim he fought the Americans. so, very unlikely to have joined ISIS after its Syria expansion.)

Another helpful detail:

The decision was based on a “will” that Baghdadi left to determine who succeeds him, along with consultation within the group.

It looks like ISIS picked another Iraqi to lead the organization, from the Hashemite clan of the Qurayshi tribe AND whose name was advanced by Baghdadi before death.

So, *if* so, who might be that one?

#ISIS’s new spokesman might also be Saudi, as was the one the US killed a day after Baghdadi‘s death.

His kunya specifically suggests he’s not Iraqi, and he claims lineage from the Meccan tribe of Prophet Mohammed.

Picking his successor aligns with the temperament for which #Baghdadi was notorious. Also his hands-on approach

https://twitter.com/hxhassan/status/1189996029179023369?s=21

If journalism is the first draft of history, Twitter is those early scribbles before the draft.

In that spirit, let’s try to see if Abdullah Qardash from Tal Afar in northern Iraq can be the same as Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi.

I first suspected strongly that Qardash might be #Baghdadi’s successor a year ago.

A few months ago, that name came up publicly for the 1st time as a likely successor, and has since become the center of such speculation.

Hajj Abdullah Qardash was listed in @Rewards4Justice in late August, two months before Baghdadi’s killing.

He is referenced in internal ISIS documents. A year ago I sensed his importance when some ISIS material mentioned the name, and in another the family’s lineage credentials.

@Rewards4Justice In August, an ISIS report that turned out to be fake suggested Baghdadi appointed him as the general caretaker of ISIS. But the fake report was likely fed by real information, which is why @Rewards4Justice listed him soon after that. That 'fake' report was based on credible info.

Most experts jumped on the name Qardash recently.

But highly-informed experts from Iraq raised two alternative names, both non-Iraqis.

Today’s speech by the new ISIS spokesman leaves open both possibilities. No mention of “muhajir”/immigrant in the surname to rule out a local.

I just noticed @ImaraWaTijara’s prediction about who might be the successor. As if he wrote the script for today’s announcement by the new spokesman, in terms of the characteristics of Baghdadi’s successor. Almost.

Compare:

Back to Qardash, it remains possible that he’s the same as Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi, the new leader of ISIS. In theory.

There is a serious problem, though. Qardash is known to be a Turkoman, from Tel Afar’s Turkoman ethnicity. In other words, not an Arab so he can’t be a Qurashi.

There is a catch, though. Both ISIS and the Qardashs dispute their Turkoman origins, and say they're an Arab tribe that lived in Tal Afar and various areas.

Credibly, there are detailed discussions of their origins and family tree predating ISIS and outside its circles.

The tribe is better known as Al Mawlah, and they’re spread not just in Iraq but also in Syria.

They trace their origins to the Abbaside Hashemite tribe of Mecca.

The Mawali of Tel Afar:

To conclude for now:

I believe, very strongly, that the new leader of ISIS is an Iraqi. That's all I can bet on.

If it's not Qardash (on whom I wouldn't bet too much money) it'd be an Iraqi who rose up through the ranks organically from Iraq after 2003 (much like Baghdadi).

(That is, not a jihadi veteran with a profile from other battlefields. He'd be from a new generation who joined under a more security-conscious organization. Baghdadi was the generation that came just some years before that. If so, I imagine he won't be identified any time soon.)