The way he reads verses from the Quran suggests he’s a religious scholar.
Also he mentioned that the new leader is a long-standing commander & cleric at the same time.
Unless insiders leak it to Iraqis, but at this point only a small circle at the helm of ISIS would know.
He must have joined the group young, rose up through the ranks in IRAQ.
• a long-standing member
• a field commander
• a jihadi cleric
• a veteran of the Iraqi jihad (inference from the claim he fought the Americans. so, very unlikely to have joined ISIS after its Syria expansion.)
So, *if* so, who might be that one?
His kunya specifically suggests he’s not Iraqi, and he claims lineage from the Meccan tribe of Prophet Mohammed.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIPYBzfWkAArwKr.jpg)
In that spirit, let’s try to see if Abdullah Qardash from Tal Afar in northern Iraq can be the same as Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi.
A few months ago, that name came up publicly for the 1st time as a likely successor, and has since become the center of such speculation.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIP6IyEW4AAJcc7.jpg)
He is referenced in internal ISIS documents. A year ago I sensed his importance when some ISIS material mentioned the name, and in another the family’s lineage credentials.
But highly-informed experts from Iraq raised two alternative names, both non-Iraqis.
Today’s speech by the new ISIS spokesman leaves open both possibilities. No mention of “muhajir”/immigrant in the surname to rule out a local.
Compare:
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIP_AFDXsAAEu9s.jpg)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIP_AFFXYAkrtfh.jpg)
There is a serious problem, though. Qardash is known to be a Turkoman, from Tel Afar’s Turkoman ethnicity. In other words, not an Arab so he can’t be a Qurashi.
Credibly, there are detailed discussions of their origins and family tree predating ISIS and outside its circles.
I believe, very strongly, that the new leader of ISIS is an Iraqi. That's all I can bet on.
If it's not Qardash (on whom I wouldn't bet too much money) it'd be an Iraqi who rose up through the ranks organically from Iraq after 2003 (much like Baghdadi).