Thread by @Rita_Katz

1)Breaking: Reports that #ISIS leader #Baghdadi killed in a #US op in #Idlib, #Syria. No official confirmation yet. ISIS silent on the matter thus far. Tho various reports in the past claimed his death, this claim def carries more weight.

2) If confirmed, Baghdadi’s death is a huge blow to #ISIS & its intern network. However, based on group's history (death of Zarqawi & other leaders), ISIS has illustrated its operational resiliency, and will def capitalize on Baghdadi’s death for recruitment & calls for attacks

3) Tho #Idlib would not be first guess as to his whereabouts, it’s not surprising at all. #Syria was #ISIS' stronghold in the country, and it’s leadership still holds prominence in region. Idlib is still a hub of various jihadi groups including #AQ affiliates.

4) Going to be interesting to see how #ISIS responds to #Baghdadi's death & when. ISIS never mentioned the eventual successor to #Baghdadi, nor has it named other top officials, due to security concerns, except for its spokesman AbuHassan Muhajir, whose real identity isn't known.

5)If true, it can’t be ignored that #Baghdadi death came so shortly after his last vid appearance in Apr 2019 (1st vid appearance in 5 years). Very reminiscent of death of #Zarqawi, who was killed 1month after he appeared, undisguised, in a vid in May 2006 thedailybeast.com/isis-leader-ab…

6) Pro-IS groups and supporters online are already disputing the reports- likening news of the death/capture of Baghdadi to a “broken record,” and calling on other supporters to “persevere and prepare, because you will be hearing this a lot.”

7) With Baghdadi’s top rivals in #Idlib, incl #HTS leader Julani, and a significant #Turkish presence, it seems highly unlikely that he could have stayed in one of “most watched” city by Intel agencies from all over without someone’s knowledge.

8) They say timing is everything… #Baghdadi killed in a city full of rivals that is heavily monitored, and even controlled in some ways, by #Turkey, right after @realDonaldTrump abandons Kurdish #SDF in move seen to have greatly benefited Turkey.

9) IS-linked channels say that even if the news is true, jihad will continue, calling Baghdadi’s death the ultimate goal of jihad: martyrdom. Users linked his death to those of prominent members of the past: Bin Laden, Zarqawi, etc.

10) Meanwhile, #alQaeda supporters are celebrating the news, with wishes that it will lead to the end of IS as a group.

11) #ISIS supporters thus far reacting w caution, both dismissing as possible rumor while stressing jihad does not end w death of a single man. Boosting the morale, they stressed that if Baghdadi “achieved his martyrdom,” it needs to be celebrated, not mourned

12) #ISIS official channels continue today with business as usual: reporting on attacks in #Syria and #Iraq, publishing its regular media, etc.

13) IMPORTANT: According to US officials, the preparation for the op to kill Baghdadi started 5 months ago, which is about the time when Baghdadi’s last video was published (this was the first vid he was seen in for 5 years), as I referenced yesterday

https://twitter.com/Rita_Katz/status/1188323957239402496

14) In live, address, Pres Trump confirms Baghdadi was killed. States it was a night time raid in NW Syria. Baghdadi detonated a suicide vest while being pursued in a tunnel. Claims intel was obtained from the site and that no US personnel were killed.

15) President Trump describes that #Baghdadi was being followed for "couple of weeks." He was "constantly changing his mind" regarding where he went, so plans had to be repeatedly adjusted. This is consistent with reports that Baghdadi had become very paranoid in his later years.

16) #Baghdadi's death is justice and a major victory over ISIS, but it should be known that #ISIS will continue on without him. Members and supporters are sure to characterize him as a martyr, and will use his death as a recruitment cause.

17) #ISIS has yet to comment on #Baghdadi’s death, but one thing to be awaited is the structure of a new so-called Caliphate. Baghdadi was the “Caliph” (ruler) of ISIS’ “Caliphate,” and with his death, the group needs to announce the new Caliph to maintain that structure

18)Caution: Media reports & Wikipedia pages stating #Baghdadi’s successor is Abdullah Qardash, are based on a fake ’Amaq report, as I previously analyzed over a month ago:

https://twitter.com/Rita_Katz/status/1173998325114265600

While he may have prominence, these particular reports are based on FALSE INTEL.

19) #ISIS yet to confirm Baghdadi's & Abu Hassan's deaths. But, as expected, supporters have plenty to say about it, angrily calling for killing of Pres Trump while rallying around same old threats of ISIS coming to NYC and to “conquer the White House.”
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