Thread by @fascinatorfun

There is definitely and uptick in
1/ identified cases
2/ the gravity rating
3/ deaths

It also looks as if China relaxing returning to the community may have increased incidents.

S Korea’s intensive virus identification programme has resulted in 4335 cases in ⬇️2 weeks

SK has 26 deaths so slight increase in mortality.

What has changed are the numbers classified as 34 serious and 19 critical suggesting there will be pressure in their hospital beds.

In the U.K. we have 15 ECMO beds used for the very serious cases.

That might extend to 28.

A good proportion of those identified will likely have mild symptoms or be able to manage it be isolation and from home, to keep as many beds available for the seriously ill or critically ill.

But it will take plenty of self discipline to ensure those at home really do isolate

As it is WW overal identification are just short of 90 k.

Italy identified 1696 but with 140 “serious” and 34 dead.

Compare those figures with S Korea and I can’t help but wonder if there is under identification.

Iran has kept up in identification - 1501 - 66 dead. No status on the serious or critical and too many accounts suggest it is chaotic.

Again. Compare it to markedly smaller (but MUCH more systematic) S Korea.

Hong Kong, having managed to teeter below 100 and no deaths has hit 100, 2 deaths and 4 critical, 2 serious. I new case is someone who flew in from London, thought to be Bristol based. Colleagues are being tested.

Systematic Singapore. 106 cases. No deaths but 7 critical.

Germany has had a marked uptick in identified (150) no deaths but 2 critical

France 130, 2 dead, 9 serious.

This gives you a sense of a gradual progression to recovery or death, meanwhile new cases flowing in.

We already know that the start in the USA has been quite chaotic not helped by their insurance based expensive healthcare system with no central public health department.

Trump dismantled it in 2018. Of the 17 people on the WH Task Force just 4 are medics or scientist.

Very poor and contradictory PH messages, with Trump more focused on shares and miracles.

Instead we discovered yesterday that genome sequencing suggests COVID was present in Washington State at least in the last week of January.

86 identified cases is likely to be seriously low

2 dead in the USA , 6 critical, 2 serious.

I do wonder how many deaths were certified pneumonia that may have been COVID given it is supposed to have been a heavy “flue” year this year.

It is very hard to understand how some cases not listed at all can truly have no disease.

Indonesia.

India only 5? With all the business traffic with China?

Egypt (population nearly 100k) only 2? When 6 of the CV identified French patients flew back from one site in Egypt? Egypt claimed the site was clear
Makes one wonder whether they test, or if they do with what