Thread by @ejmalrai

Turkish attack against Syrian Kurds has been agreed with #USA & #Russia. It is a limited attack with limited objective. It will create a zone (not a buffer zone) for Syrian refugees to be eventually re-located from #Turkey and #Idlib when the time comes to eliminate Jihadists.

It is in favour of
- #USA: to allow forces to pull out and prepare for a total withdrawal
- Russia willing to retake #Idlib and eliminate al-Qaeda and ex-Nusra et al. Russia satisfies a new strategic partner (Turkey)
- Damascus that wants Idlib back.

https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1182367688980664320

- Syrian Kurds are the biggest losers, as always. This operation may (just may) help Kurdish leaders to understand they need a good deal with Damascus. Otherwise they will see their territory taken away piece by piece.

This ops, notwithstanding Damascus protest, is positive +

.. It is positive to Damascus coz it is breaking the Kurds' hope to rely on the US-Israel. Kurds have no friends, no even the mountains. Their policy has been a total failure, bidding on the wrong horse& relying on the international community's support. Where is this support now?

#EU countries are making fun of #Kurds today by "freezing" the selling of weapons to #Turkey.

Who cares? Turkey has its own arsenal and has the US and Russia, ready to supply;y as much weapons as needed.

So open your eyes, Syrian Kurds, and try to come out of your hibernation

Everybody knew about this Turkish ops coming. It has not been decided over a call between Trump & Erdogan. Many knew it was coming.

Kurds are an easy "merchandise" to sell when biggest interest are in play.

Both the US and Russia consider Turkey - not Kurds - a strategic ally.

So, what is going to happen:
- 1st phase a limited ops for the world to digest the fact that Turkey has pushed forces into (Arab tribe) Kurdish north-east #Syria.
-A few months later, a 2d phase, another bite from the Kurdish controlled territory after relocating Syrian refugees.

Now, seeing #US giving up on a small part of north-east #Syria is not bad/not exceptional because their air control still imposes itself on the entire regime.

But if Trump will pull back Turkey is still, in Damascus's eyes (and its allies), better and possible to negotiate with.

If he is honest in lifting his hands on #Idlib, this is the forthcoming battle to expect after this one.

For #ISIS, have no worry: Turkey won't go towards #Raqqah. It is just a Kurdish leverage to scare Europe. Indeed, the EU is terrified of the idea of having EU ISIS freed.

Nobody is going to free #ISIS prisoners. Related news are unfounded. If ISIS militants are free (11,000) they will kill first "Malahida", #Kurds, and will aim to kill more Americans to gather glory. So I wouldn't worry about this aspect notwithstanding hints in this direction.