Thread by @Charles_Lister

BREAKING - reports of a (US?) helicopter-borne raid on a convoy of Huras al-Din (#AlQaeda in #Syria) leaders traveling near Barisha in #Idlib.

Locals say as many as 6 choppers involved - gave chase to convoy, 2 landed & assaulted vehicles. Possibly took bodies or evidence away.

#pt: Barisha is ~3-4km from the #Turkey border. It's in long-time #AlQaeda territory, spanning between Al-Dana-Sarmada-Salqin.

As I recall, a helicopter-borne raid on AQ in NW #Syria has never happened - this would suggest a very high-level target.

#pt: In more recent years, the Turkistan Islamic Party (#TIP) has probably been the most significant authority in the Barisha region (stretching NE to Jisr al-Shughour).

Unverified reports have claimed 1 #TIP fatality, in what looks like a series of successive clashes. #Idlib

Back online, arrived in the #MiddleEast - looks like #ISIS leader #Baghdadi was the target of the U.S. SOF raid near Barisha in northern #Idlib, 3-4km from the #Turkey border.

Suffice to say, this is huge news.

Local sources indicate that #HTS may actually have been involved:

#pt: #HTS has embraced a hostile posture towards #ISIS since 2014. In the past 18 months, an elite #HTS security unit has been responsible for the death or capture of 200+ #ISIS militants in "counter-terrorism" raids in #Idlib.

BUT, #Baghdadi = a more challenging dilemma.

#pt: It has been widely reported in Ar. sources that long-time AQI veteran & HTS official Abu Mariya al-Qahtani had "welcomed" a number of #ISIS figures who fled from #ISIS's last battles in #Baghouz.

#Idlib would have been a huge gamble for #Baghdadi, but not inconceivable.

#pt: To get from eastern #Syria to #Idlib requires an extensive - and costly - smuggling effort. That reveals intelligence vulnerabilities, which could explain why the #SDF (including @MazloumAbdi) is now describing this as thanks to "joint intelligence work" with the #SDF.

@MazloumAbdi #pt: #HTS sources cited here by @wissamm88 claim that #HTS security forces were hunting #Baghdadi yesterday afternoon, when U.S. troops pounced in an operation that say also killed #Baghdadi's deputy, Abu Said al-Iraqi.

https://twitter.com/wissamm88/status/1188351665918881792

@MazloumAbdi @wissamm88 #pt: NEW information suggests veteran jihadists belonging to #AlQaeda affiliate Tanzim Huras al-Din (HaD) were also killed in the U.S. raid.

I'd heard rumors that HaD was re-engaging with #ISIS's now vulnerable leadership. It's quite possible this is why #Baghdadi was in #Idlib.

@MazloumAbdi @wissamm88 #pt: I've worked on #Idlib dynamics intensively for 8yrs. I'd be amazed if #Baghdadi had made #Idlib a semi-permanent hiding place.

It's *much* more likely that he was there to meet high-level jihadists - either #ISIS allies or #AlQaeda/#HaD figures looking to talk/mediate.

@MazloumAbdi @wissamm88 #pt: Gathering from U.S. reporting, this SOF raid was "at least a week" in the making - meaning #Baghdadi was en route or in hiding for at least 7 days in #Idlib region.

That opens up the possibility that #Turkey was in-the-loop. Remember, @VP #Pence was there 10 days ago.

@MazloumAbdi @wissamm88 @VP #pt: Russia would also have been pre-informed, using a pre-existing "deconfliction" mechanism used by the U.S. to clear the way for 2 recent, rare, strikes against HaD in #Idlib - on June 30 and August 31.

Both those strikes targeted members of an "ultra-extremist" HaD wing...

@MazloumAbdi @wissamm88 @VP #pt: Huras al-Din (HaD) is a complex movement, whose leadership has been divided between former Jabhat al-Nusra (intensely hostile to #ISIS) & newly arrived #AlQaeda "core" (less so).

Rumors I'd heard is the latter were attempting to re-engage with #ISIS, to explore a detente.

@MazloumAbdi @wissamm88 @VP #pt: It is clear that the U.S. (CIA) has intel penetrating deep within Huras al-Din. That explains the 2 strikes in June & August.

Other rumors - linked also to targeted assassination of senior #AlQaeda figures in #Idlib - have blamed #HTS for "leaking" & "betraying" AQ targets.

@MazloumAbdi @wissamm88 @VP #pt: For e.g, the killing of long-time #AlQaeda veteran Abu Khallad in #August in a targeted assassination was blamed widely on "traitors," which was interpreted to mean #HTS.

Implication: Was there an #HTS -> #Turkey/#MIT -> CIA intel link here? Maybe.

https://twitter.com/charles_lister/status/1167070286073778176?lang=en

@MazloumAbdi @wissamm88 @VP #pts: So until now, (1) #Turkey & (2) the #SDF claim to have provided intelligence &/or support to the U.S. JSOC operation targeting #ISIS leader #Baghdadi in #Idlib.

That's very likely.

And bear in mind where much of #Turkey's intel on #Idlib comes from these days: (3) #HTS.

@MazloumAbdi @wissamm88 @VP #pt: Bear in mind also that locals claim U.S. forces were on the ground, questioning people & closing roads & then assaulting targets for a total of 2-3hrs.

In hostile territory, that [almost certainly] doesn't happen without someone telling people: "leave them alone" - #Turkey.

@MazloumAbdi @wissamm88 @VP #pt: #Turkey says #Baghdadi arrived at the target location in #Barisha 48hrs before the U.S. JSOC raid.

That gives us more of an indication on (1) why he was likely there (temporarily, for a meeting/s) & (2) how he was detected (on the move, w. smugglers, thru #SDF territory?)

@MazloumAbdi @wissamm88 @VP #pt: We also know from US sources that this JSOC/CIA raid was in the works for "at least" a week, which tells us more about the CIA's success in penetrating high-level circles aware of #Baghdadi's plans.

IMO, that strengthens possibility that Huras al-Din figures were involved.

@MazloumAbdi @wissamm88 @VP #pt: I've got a long paper on Huras al-Din coming out in weeks, but in the meantime, see:

Thread 1:

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1171488367369805824

Thread 2:

https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister/status/1145394473146441730

Article, w. @ColinPClarke: foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/04/al-…

Interesting that US officials talking to @JenGriffinFNC described last night’s killing of #ISIS leader #Baghdadi in #Idlib as a “partnered mission.”

She also confirms #Baghdadi was ID’d via biometrics from his head, which blew off when he detonated a suicide vest. #Syria

#Trump confirms #Baghdadi is dead, after US SOF operation in NW #Syria.

#Trump’s description of #Baghdadi’s final moments - “whimpering, screaming, crying,” along with his children being chased by dogs - may be emotionally pleasing for some, but it’ll be fuel to fire for an inevitable #ISIS search for revenge.

Calling #ISIS “savage monsters,” same.

Time to take a step back & acknowledge the extraordinary capabilities demonstrated by the @CIA & the U.S. military (@USSOCOM/JSOC).

By all accounts, this was a seriously complex operation fraught with risk, yet total success & no losses.

Bravo!

@CIA Killing #Baghdadi is a major achievement, but make no mistake, #ISIS is still well-equipped to survive & likely resurge.

BUT - if #Trump hadn't sown such chaos in eastern #Syria in recent weeks, we'd now have an invaluable opportunity to double-down on #ISIS at a critical time.

@CIA Judging by today's media response to #Baghdadi's death, #Idlib will receive little/no international support when pro-#Assad forces re-escalate there.

It's an immensely complex place, currently home to 3 million civilians - at least 50% of whom have been displaced multiple times.

@CIA "Even with #Baghdadi dead, the plan will remain the same - go to ground & operate semi-autonomously in dispersed cells. #ISIS takes opportunities when they arise - we're not going to see any dramatic reaction... to this news.”

My comments to @FT:

ft.com/content/24215a…

@CIA @FT "In the interim, #ISIS will likely suffer from uncertainty as the power shift occurs, but ultimately, the extent of instability, vacuums & opportunities presented in #Syria & #Iraq are of far more advantage than the loss of a leader."

Me to @Independent:

independent.co.uk/news/world/mid…

@CIA @FT @Independent A lot being said about #Turkey having "bases" in close proximity to #Barisha, where #Baghdad was killed.

That's false. #Barisha is almost as far away from a #TSK #Idlib OP as it's possible to get - see yellow star on map, here:

Want to accuse #Turkey? Focus on border issue.

@CIA @FT @Independent A lot is also being said about how #Idlib is "#AlQaeda-controlled" - a [false] accusation that will only be understood by many as a justification for a military offensive there.

1. #Idlib is not "AQ-controlled."
BUT,
2. The border strip around #Barisha is; has been a long time.

@CIA @FT @Independent #pt: The dominant force in #Idlib is #HTS, an extremist force, but different to #AlQaeda.

#HTS has been combating #ISIS in #Idlib for 1.5yrs = 100s of #ISIS killed & captured. #HTS sources are *celebrating* #Baghdadi's death, but mourning the fact that they weren't responsible.

@CIA @FT @Independent This @ReutersWorld piece does an excellent job & tracing back how #Baghdadi was found - #Iraq intelligence work, a joint US-#Turkey-#Iraq CT operation, informants in #Idlib...

... & #HTS, who captured a #Baghdadi aide & it seems, fed intel to #Turkey.

reuters.com/article/us-mid…

@CIA @FT @Independent @ReutersWorld This brilliant piece by @martinchulov highlights especially #Iraq's role in finding #Baghdadi, co-opting a smuggler who moved relatives to #Idlib.

Joint #Iraq-US intel work then concluded #Baghdadi was living with a Huras al-Din/#AlQaeda (HaD) commander.

theguardian.com/world/2019/oct…