1/ Let's compare Seattle/Washington (7.5m) to the other hotspots around the world - Wuhan (pop. 11m) Daegu (2.5m) and Lombardy (10m) - to see where we fit into their timelines.
2/ I am going to try to triangulate on the approximate date based on two metrics: _actual_ number of infected and confirmed deaths, both on a per capita basis.
3/ Actual number of infected is an estimate. I am not using confirmed cases because every country used different testing approaches and timelines.
Hit first, Wuhan rolled out testing slowly. SK tested aggressively. Lombardy was more in line w/ Wuhan, struggling to test early on.
Hit first, Wuhan rolled out testing slowly. SK tested aggressively. Lombardy was more in line w/ Wuhan, struggling to test early on.
5/ Better testing translates into better visibility into actual infections. The better your testing, the more of the tip of the iceberg is visible.
6/ Washington is only at 8 cases per 100k, but @trvrb estimates that this number may capture only 1/10th of outstanding cases.
This reflects our being very late to the testing game.
This reflects our being very late to the testing game.
7/ I estimate Wuhan hit ~60 infections per 100k population by 1/18.
At the time, they had only confirmed a small fraction of those cases, but we have a good idea based on detailed after-the-fact analysis what the actual number were.
At the time, they had only confirmed a small fraction of those cases, but we have a good idea based on detailed after-the-fact analysis what the actual number were.
8/ Daegu hit that threshold around 2/26.
Lombardy reached it around 3/6, but some hard-hit towns like Lodi and Bergamo had reached it by late Feb.
Lombardy reached it around 3/6, but some hard-hit towns like Lodi and Bergamo had reached it by late Feb.
9/ Based on per capita confirmed deaths, Washington is currently at 37 (0.5 per 100k).
Wuhan reached this point around 1/24, Daegu around 2/28 and Lombardy on 3/1 (although again, some of the smaller towns reached this point by late Feb.)
Wuhan reached this point around 1/24, Daegu around 2/28 and Lombardy on 3/1 (although again, some of the smaller towns reached this point by late Feb.)
10/ So this would suggest that Seattle/Washington is roughly where Wuhan was between 1/18 to 1/24, Daegu between 2/26-2/28 and Lombardy between 2/29-3/5.
11/ Over the following week, on average, the number of confirmed cases increased 7x and the number of deaths increased 8x in these three epicenters.
If this happens to Washington, we would be looking at 4,000+ confirmed cases and 300 deaths a week from now.
If this happens to Washington, we would be looking at 4,000+ confirmed cases and 300 deaths a week from now.
12/ The following week was very crucial week for each of these cities.
Wuhan was locked down on 1/23. The effect started to show up about a week later in a slowdown in the increase in new infected.
nbcnews.com/news/world/thr…
Wuhan was locked down on 1/23. The effect started to show up about a week later in a slowdown in the increase in new infected.
nbcnews.com/news/world/thr…
13/ In Daegu, the search focused on testing all 9,000+ members of the Shincheonji sect at the center of its crisis. Healthcare workers were already showing signs of "fatigue".
apnews.com/113e00e87074cf…
apnews.com/113e00e87074cf…
15/ In Lombardy, smaller towns had already been locked down a week earlier. On 3/7, the entire region was put in "virtual lockdown".
cnbc.com/2020/03/07/ita…
cnbc.com/2020/03/07/ita…
16/ Needless to say, this will also be a very crucial week for Seattle.
And other parts of the country, including my home in NYC, could be just a week or even a few days behind.
Hoping for the best ... but also bracing for some major impact over the coming week ...
And other parts of the country, including my home in NYC, could be just a week or even a few days behind.
Hoping for the best ... but also bracing for some major impact over the coming week ...
