Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #peoplesVote

Most recents (24)

So @BenedictWesson suggested to me I ought to make #BrexitDiagram versions for each #UKSupremeCourt possible outcome

I have now done that, adapting V21 of the diagram accordingly

The results are *fascinating*
tl;dr - if prorogation is justiciable, then this
First the original V21, with some minor amendments to the graphics

This has a .7 chance prorogation is justiciable, .3 that it is not

This gives outcomes:
2% - No Deal 31 Oct
4% - Revoke
2% - Brexit with Deal
86% - General Election
6% - #PeoplesVote
Read 8 tweets
The @RemainerNow team were at #LDConf for a few days we had a stand and an event. The idea was to raise awareness amongst activists but also meet/chat to parliamentarians so they could learn more about us & how we could help them & anti-brexit colleagues.

Here is who we met 👇
First here are the parliamentarians we met on the exhibition stand we had. They came and talked to us about our campaign & how they can help, they heard #RemainerNow stories, saw some video content and collected handouts and our new business cards.
Read 20 tweets
Can we have a Labour #Brexit reality check please?
1) lot of good people getting themselves all bent out of shape on the #LibDems policy of #RevokeA50 without really absorbing that this is all about Labour zigzagging on a #FinalSay

It's Corbyn's fault for demanding a GE!
2) a reminder of recent history.

Anti #Brexit/no deal groups focused on a #PeoplesVote 2 years ago. Labour conference last year tried to push Corbyn into an unambiguous PV stance with a ton of CLPs putting motions forward - they were sidelined
3) the Labour powers that be morphed 100s of "we want a PV" motions into "we want a GE, if we can't get that, we look at other options, one of which might be a PV"

This happened - and it allowed Corbyn to fuck about for 2 years
Read 13 tweets
Couple of points on latest "outrages"
1) vote Tory in a GE - Vote for some undefined fantasy position between no deal & a great deal

Vote Labour - Vote for some undefined position between a great deal & remain via a referendum

Vote Lib Dem - Vote for Remain

2) if Lib Dems get a majority, it's a new, fresh democratic mandate for Remain that overrides the 2016 Ref

If Tories or Labour get a majority, it's not a mandate for anything that can be defined because they won based on an unknown - that great deal that hasn't been defined
3) If Lib Dems *don't* get a majority, there is no clear mandate and the only way to solve #Brexit is via a 2nd Referendum - this is Lib Dem policy

Only the Lib Dems could claim a mandate for anything on #Brexit following a GE, the other 2 parties could not
Read 8 tweets
After having managed to equally enrage Remain *and* Leave people with my earlier comments about the Lib Dems' Revoke policy, let me try to set the record straight
I *do not* personally support the revocation of #Article50

Conversely, I think it makes sense tactically for the Lib Dems to advocate it at a General Election

It solidifies their Remain credentials, and also opens the door to a #PeoplesVote as a compromise position
Plus I also do not really have much time for the these "Revoke and reform" or "Revoke to reconsider" arguments. Ask those people calling for reform of the EU what reform they want and you get as many answers as there are questioners.
Read 8 tweets
At the end of a remarkable week, here is #BrexitDiagram V19

This one adds what *might* happen in the Supreme Court 17 September, and the consequences of that for different #Brexit outcomes
Note: I am not a lawyer, so I have hedged my bets - putting the two outcomes from the Court of Session and the High Court at .4 probability to then be confirmed by the Supreme Court, and .1 for prorogation ruled illegal and .1 for it ruled legal
Also as talk of a General Election has died down from Johnson, and opposition parties ponder what to do during prorogation, there are some changes to the probabilities of the various outcomes
Read 5 tweets
Essential reading @SKinnock @normanlamb @CarolineFlintMP @RoryStewartUK & colleagues hoping for a Brexit compromise. The politics just don't add up. The only way out of this politically *and constitutionally* is to go back to the people.

A thread...

@SKinnock @normanlamb @CarolineFlintMP @RoryStewartUK & colleagues: @davidallengreen explains how the 2016 referendum will continue to destabilise our precarious unwritten constitutional arrangements until we lance the boil.

What started with the people needs to end with the people. Only a #PeoplesVote with two legally defined, practicably deliverable options can bring back stability to the system.

Read 7 tweets
So today @oletwinofficial joins @tom_watson & Tony Blair suggesting a #PeoplesVote should happen first, and only then a General Election

But what are the pros and cons of this?
Referendum first has the *appeal* that it keeps the Tory and Labour parties together, and that there can be some Brexit 'closure' as soon as possible
But referendum first has major *downsides* - that it would need a caretaker administration for 6 months to organise, would need a longer Article 50 extension to organise, and the problems of the 2016 referendum haven't been resolved
Read 6 tweets
What do the votes late on 9 Oct, and the prorogation of Parliament, mean for #Brexit?

It means a 15 October election is now ⛔️

The wider implications are on V18 of my #BrexitDiagram
The major issue is now:
What does Johnson do?

He has been mandate to seek an Article 50 extension. But will he do so? Would he sooner break the law, or resign, instead?
Breaking the law leads to a Vote of No Confidence (VONC) when Parliament resumes on 14 October

Resigning leads to a temporary administration, and then to a General Election later in the autumn
Read 5 tweets
1/ I think its a good time to push revoking Article 50. It's the only clean Brexit. One week and the whole sorry mess is over. It's simple, and simplicity is something that many Leavers want. And it promises an immediate economic Remain dividend.
2/ Revoking Article 50 has had a problem of democratic legitimacy, but if a political party, let's say the LibDems, were to stand in an election on the platform of revoking Article 50 then there could be no argument their about backing revocation being undemocratic.
3/ In contrast a #PeoplesVote is messy, time-consuming and has an uncertain outcome. The choice of Leave option to be put to the public would be highly contentious and would result in a debate that would generate controversy and confusion.
Read 6 tweets
Using hashtags and trending words - How not to make a hash of it on twitter - a thread.

#Stopbrexit #Stopthecoup #FBPE #FinalSay #PeoplesVote

Sadly I see too many people saying that they don't see the point of #hashtag ging - or that it is silly - or doesn't help....

So bear with me here...

#StopBrexit #StopTheCoup #LiarJohnson #DeathByBrexit

This couldn't be further from the truth, using tags well, in any situation on twitter, helps you reach further and link up with other people


Even people in other countries

#FBPE #HaveDemocracy #StopFascism #facciamorete #FBR

Read 26 tweets
Britain is drifting without direction and government, and unpredictability is a drag on the economy. A stupidly named #PeoplesVote does nothing to remove uncertainty - there’s every chance people (rightly) vote to Leave again, while a narrow Remain result entrenches division.
Yet so many glib Continuity Remainers, especially the @LibDems and Labour centrists, present another referendum as some kind of panacea. They delude themselves that the result would be different than 2016, and that the drivers of Brexit would magically disappear if so.
I guarantee that this will not be the case. If some cosy consortium of the @LibDems, Labour Remainers, nationalist parties and unloved ex prime ministers manages to thwart the clear promise that the 2016 referendum would be respected, Brexiteers won’t take it lying down.
Read 5 tweets
"Why @jeremycorbyn should back Ken Clarke for PM".
Ahead of 27 Aug meeting between Corbyn & other anti #NoDealBrexit politicians, I'll argue why it is in his & Lab's interest to back Ken Clarke as a temporary PM to support a #PeoplesVote rather than a #GE19. 1/
Here's Corbyn's 14 Aug letter where he set out the case for him becoming temporary PM with the "aim of calling a General Election". As LOTO, he has a very strong, reasonable case to put himself forward here. 2/
However @joswinson didn't think he'd get enough support in HoC. A look at top 50 LibDem target seats shows that they are mainly Tory ones. Supporting JC4PM would be used as a weapon by Tories to scare off Remainer Tory voters Lib Dems need. 3/…
Read 16 tweets
I wrote a thread yesterday explaining why I thought that any temporary government is only likely to be attainable if it has a very narrow mandate: to ensure that there is a pre-Brexit GE. 1/
There was a good discussion (thanks all!). The most common objection was that the temporary government should not leave Brexit unresolved, but that it should instead legislate for a #PeoplesVote before a GE. 2/
This is, for at least three reasons, a hugely problematic plan. It worries me that it has such strong support, from all parties/factions. I'm really keen to hear from those who disagree with me... 3/
Read 13 tweets
The #PeoplesVote campaign is today announcing a new date for what is expected to be one of the biggest public protests Britain has ever seen. 1/11
This will now take place in London on October 19 - just 12 days before Boris Johnson plans to take the UK out of Europe with a “scorched earth” No Deal Brexit that no-one voted for in the last referendum. 2/11
The previous date would have seen the march happen a week earlier. But since plans were unveiled, the campaign has discovered this would have clashed with a fun run to raise money for Great Ormond Street Hospital in Hyde Park. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
We think the coming #PeoplesVote needs to stick to key principles: 1) A final say for all : 16 & 17 year olds, European adults in the UK & British adults in the EU ie those most affected by Brexit must have a vote. 2) All Brexit options to be on the ballot, inc no deal.
3) All Remain options should be on the ballot paper including Super Remain : UK in Euro and Schengen. 4) Brexit and Remain options to be chosen by public using STV preference I.e 1 to 12 5) 60% needed by final winning option after reallocations or Parliament to decide
6) so for instance the ballot paper may look like a) Soft Brexit -SM & CU 10% b) May’s Deal 10% c) No Deal 30% d) Remain on current terms 30% e) Super Remain 20% : so final result might be Remain on current terms 60% no deal 40%
Read 9 tweets
On Saturday we sent our volunteers out to the Cross in #Chester and to Ellesmere Port to talk to the constituents of @justinmadders too. We wanted to ask whether Halloween Brexit would be a Trick or Treat. THREAD
Additionally our message in Ellesmere Port included a discussion relating to the NO-Deal related job losses at Vauxhall expected if Boris Johnson gets his way. In #Chester we want to know if people would support a #RemainAlliance
Meanwhile @EuropeWeaver set up their table in Weaverham. They experienced a good deal of gratitude from remainers really pleased to see them out campaigning for a #peoplesvote and #StopBrexit
Read 21 tweets
So going to go out on a limb with a slightly out there brexit prediction.

1. There will be no "new" deal with the EU due to PM Johnson's refusal to negotiate without the backstop being removed. This will be clear by September.

2. A VONC is tabled & with 20 Tory rebels succeeds.
3. Labour under Corbyn can't pull together a majority but with many anti no deal Tories not fancying an election where they would not be able to back manifesto and with many moderate labour MPs looking at the polling, cross party grandees look for another way, a grand coalition.
4. This leads to a cabinet led by a senior labour back bencher e.g Yvette Cooper, along with several senior Tories, a couple of SNP and Lib Dems and Caroline Lucas. There first job is to ask for an extension to avoid no deal disaster.
Read 7 tweets
MINI THREAD - Next General Election

There are some mixed messages coming from #Boris on what sort of #Brexit he will deliver on October 31st.

Here's my perspective as a voter on what happens in 3 scenarios


If GE is before 31/10 choice will be

1. @conservatives (featuring @brexitparty_uk)
2. @LibDems (featuring @UKLabour & @theSNP)

A Tory/Brexit Party pact would result in a Leave landslide everywhere outside London & Scotland. Lab wiped out in Mids & North


GE after #Boris failed to deliver Proper #Brexit on 31/10 choice will be between

1. @brexitparty_uk
2. @LibDems (featuring @UKLabour & @theSNP)

TBP wins in a landslide outside London & Scotland. Tories wiped out. Labour wiped out in the Mids and North


Read 10 tweets
@RossThomson_MP Johnson's cabinet of 'hugely talented' people.....

1. There is the 'hugely talented' Grant Shapps at 'Internet Marketing' for example....

@RossThomson_MP 2. There is Priti Patel who is 'hugely talented' at arranging and attending secret meetings in order to give UK Aid money to pay for Israeli military budget. Hugely talented also at getting sacked for it.

@RossThomson_MP 3. There is Michael Gove, who is hugely talented at back stabbing Johnson because he did not believe he should be PM, and then joining PM Johnson's cabinet. Hugely talented!
Read 9 tweets
Forget the polls.
Forget the news.
Forget the rhetoric.
Forget the debates.
Just look at the votes.
51.9% voted for Brexit in 2016.
Then 54.04% voted for parties who promised to avoid #NoDealBrexit in 2017.
If we're still a democracy, that should be all that matters.
And the SDLP, I had to use the BBC website for because I just couldn't find it.…
Read 3 tweets
🚨 #BrexitDiagram Series 3, V 9 - the last before the summer break! 🚨

Johnson survived his first week, and we can draw some conclusions from his statements and appointments so far
This one has slightly different outcomes to previous versions, inc. a new Deal and then General Election option (with DUP abandoning the Tories), based on @JohnOBrennan2's thinking.

How this might play for an election has been influenced by @syrpis @pmdfoster comments.
Chances of a General Election are ⬆️
Chances of a #PeoplesVote are ⬇️
Chances Commons blocks No Deal are ⬆️, so overall chance of No Deal is ⬇️
Read 4 tweets
In over 3 years of campaigning to #stopbrexit I have had a lot of time to think about EU laws that affect us to our benefit.

What EU laws do you like?

Here are 10 EU laws I like and this is how they affect YOU.👇

#NoToNoDeal #Brexit #PeoplesVote
Consular Protection Directive: As EU citizens, Brits can automatically rely on consular protection from any EU country when in an emergency in a country and there is no British representation. Handy!
Transfers of Undertakings Directive: People whose employer changes after merger, takeover or acquisition are protected by EU law. Red tape slashing #Brexiters on the side of big business would probably like to remove/water down these employee protections we have.
Read 14 tweets
Today is possibly .@theresa_may's last day as PM, if .@BorisJohnson can command a majority (which is in some doubt...)

So it's a great opportunity to look back at some of the *highlights* of Mrs May's premiership in memes👇
13 JUL 2016: May was appointed as PM and named her Cabinet shortly thereafter, surprising many by giving 3 of the top #Brexit-related jobs to arch-brexiters Boris Johnson, David Davis & Liam Fox. Sheer folly, or genius in making them own what they'd sold? Sadly, the former😢
5 OCT 2016: With such a narrow result, the country could be forgiven for expecting May to propose a consensual solution, as Norway PM Erna Solberg had done in a similar situation. Most Remainers would've accepted #Norway.

May's #CitizensOfNowhere speech crushed all hope.
Read 71 tweets

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