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IDF’s exposure of Hizbullah’s network in the Syrian Golan is another success of its intelligence, pursuant to exposing the secret precise missile factories and attack tunnels. However, the missiles and tunnels are top level strategic threats, higher than the “Golan portfolio”
1/9
1/9
Today’s news are not surprising, as back in 2015 late Samir Quntar and Jihad Mughniyya were already working on this terror network. It was destroyed after launching several attacks. Today we see an information operation against an embryonic terror network.
2/9
2/9
Target audiences for this operation: 1. Hizbullah, you’re penetrated + your money goes in the midst of national financial crisis...2. Assad, take notice – your Hiz. allies are using your soil for its operations without your knowledge. The bills will come to you for payment.
3/9
3/9
Target audiences for this operation: 3. Russia – if stability and reconstruction are your priority – keep your word and keep Hizbullah away. 4. Syrian collaborators – we know what you do, when and where. There’ll be a price for that, and it’s your skin in the game.
4/9
4/9
Israel’s leadership faced 2 dilemmas:
a.Information operation early on or kinetics later
b.Risking intel sources against benefits of early disruption through exposure to Russia and Assad
I’m confident the Chiefs of IDF and Intelligence took their decisions professionally.
5/9
a.Information operation early on or kinetics later
b.Risking intel sources against benefits of early disruption through exposure to Russia and Assad
I’m confident the Chiefs of IDF and Intelligence took their decisions professionally.
5/9
Ali Musa Daqduq is well known to me from the time I was Chief of Defense Intelligence. A senior terrorist sent by Nasrallah to Iraq to fight the US forces and responsible to the execution of 5 US abducted servicemen. Arrested in 2007, he was released by Iraq in 2012.
6/9
6/9
*Forward looking*, we need to see whether the exposure disrupted the activity for good, whether Assad returned to fully govern the Golan, will the Russians uphold their promise that no Iranian and will be in the Golan?
7/9
7/9
Decisions on Israel’s ongoing operations against Iran’s and Hizbullah’s entrenchment are still ahead of us.
Remembering that The more serious threat from Syria and Lebanon is the precision missile disposition.
8/9
Remembering that The more serious threat from Syria and Lebanon is the precision missile disposition.
8/9
A fortnight after the PM’s Moscow visit it is still publicly unclear: what was agreed about Israel’s activity against Iran in Syria, will the S300 move to Syrian hands? What is the “committee on foreign forces’ exit”? Next week I will publish an INSS Insight on the subject.
9/9
9/9
