Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ba1
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#Covid «I rapporti dalla #Cina indicano che #BF.7 ha la più forte capacità di infezione tra le sottovarianti #Omicron nel paese, essendo più veloce da trasmettere rispetto ad altre #varianti, con un periodo di incubazione più breve»
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#拡散希望 G2P-Japan🇯🇵の論文第15弾「#S375F：オミクロンBA.1を特徴づける変異」を、iScience @iScience_CP に発表しました。初代オミクロン である #BA1 の特徴が、#S375F というスパイクのたったひとつの変異で規定されることを解明しました。
以下、本研究の概要です。1/6
cell.com/iscience/fullt…
以下、本研究の概要です。1/6
cell.com/iscience/fullt…
#オミクロン BA.1株は、①スパイクタンパク質の開裂効率の低下と、②低い膜融合活性、というふたつの特徴を持つことが明らかになっています。
参考：G2P-Japan🇯🇵論文第5弾↓
nature.com/articles/s4158…
しかし、スパイクタンパク質のどの変異がこれらの特徴を決めているのかは不明でした。2/6
参考：G2P-Japan🇯🇵論文第5弾↓
nature.com/articles/s4158…
しかし、スパイクタンパク質のどの変異がこれらの特徴を決めているのかは不明でした。2/6
1️⃣本研究ではまず、大規模なスクリーニング実験の結果、BA.1株の上記のふたつの特徴は、スパイクタンパク質のreceptor binding domainに規定され、その中でも特に、#S375F というたったひとつの変異によって特徴づけられることを明らかにしました。3/6
1/9 - “[A new study] suggests that updated boosters [of #COVID19 vaccines] seem to offer much the same protection as an extra dose of the older vaccines — particularly when it comes to keeping people out of hospital.”
nature.com/articles/d4158…
nature.com/articles/d4158…
2/9 - “On 15 August, the United Kingdom became the first country to approve these ‘bivalent’ vaccines, which are based on the #Omicron #BA1 lineage and the original #SARSCoV2 sequence identified in Wuhan, China, and will soon roll them out. [And today EMA].”
3/9 - “Largescale efficacy trials […] which involved randomly assigning tens of thousands of people to get a vaccine or placebo and following who got infected are no longer practical, possible or ethical in 2022.”
1/4 - Quels scénarios #COVID19 pour les prochains mois?
(Rappelons que nous ne savons pas le prédire, c’est donc pure conjecture).
1. Les observations:
Les 3 dernières vagues #Omicron respectivement #BA1, #BA2, #BA5 ont déferlé avec une intensité très voisine (selon positivité)
(Rappelons que nous ne savons pas le prédire, c’est donc pure conjecture).
1. Les observations:
Les 3 dernières vagues #Omicron respectivement #BA1, #BA2, #BA5 ont déferlé avec une intensité très voisine (selon positivité)
2/4 - Les observations (suite)
7 vagues consécutives en 2 ans et demi, les plus hautes avec les sous-variants d’#Omicron, la plus longue avec Delta (deux vagues). Pas d’immunité collective pour bloquer la transmission, forte couverture vaccinale réduisant formes graves et décès.
7 vagues consécutives en 2 ans et demi, les plus hautes avec les sous-variants d’#Omicron, la plus longue avec Delta (deux vagues). Pas d’immunité collective pour bloquer la transmission, forte couverture vaccinale réduisant formes graves et décès.
3/4 -
2. Les scénarios pour la fin 2022:
A. Pas de nouvelle vague: scénario plausible au vu de l’absence de propagation d’un nouveau variant ou sous-variant début août en Europe.
B. Nouvelle vague BA.4/BA.5 à la faveur de la saison froide: scénario de type Delta en 2021.
2. Les scénarios pour la fin 2022:
A. Pas de nouvelle vague: scénario plausible au vu de l’absence de propagation d’un nouveau variant ou sous-variant début août en Europe.
B. Nouvelle vague BA.4/BA.5 à la faveur de la saison froide: scénario de type Delta en 2021.
1/4 - “On peut raisonnablement penser que le pic de la vague de contaminations est passé en France et passe actuellement sur une grande partie de l’Europe. L’expérience portugaise nous permet d’appuyer cette analyse.” leparisien.fr/societe/sante/…
2/4 - Si la France suit la dynamique portugaise de sa récente vague #BA5, alors le pic de mortalité pourrait être quinze jours après celui des contaminations, soit en France début juillet, avec un pic d’hospitalisations le précédant de quelques jours.
1/ Dangerous spread of misinformation by @BBC.
Do not be vaxed relaxed. Triple vaccination and prior infection with omicron #BA1 does not offer protection omicron variants #BA4 and #BA5 - which are currently driving the new wave of infection in the UK. 🧵
Do not be vaxed relaxed. Triple vaccination and prior infection with omicron #BA1 does not offer protection omicron variants #BA4 and #BA5 - which are currently driving the new wave of infection in the UK. 🧵
2/ #BA5 resists and escapes neutralising antibodies induced by triple-dose vaccination & antibodies induced by prior omicron (#BA1) infection.
3/ Please do all you can to prevent (re)infection. #COVIDisAirborne which means infectious particles are carried in the air we breathe. To protect yourself wear a good-fitting #FFP2 or #FFP3 mask 😷 especially when in indoor public spaces.
1/ Bad advice. Do not be vaxed relaxed. Omicron variants #BA4 and #BA5 - which are currently driving the new wave of infection, - resist & escape neutralizing antibodies induced by triple-dose vaccination & antibodies induced by prior omicron (#BA1) infection. 🧵
2/ Triple vaccination & prior omicron infection with #BA1 confer no protection against the new variant.
So, ist mal wieder Zeit für #Coronatwitter mit der #BA5 #Sommerwelle - oder?
Mein konkreter Anlass:
- 25.6. Klassentreffen (N = 10, innen)
- 1.7. Geburtstagsfeier (N = 28, Garten)
Also: quo vadis #Passporting via #Schnelltest?
'Mein' mentales Modell: 🧵
1/n
Mein konkreter Anlass:
- 25.6. Klassentreffen (N = 10, innen)
- 1.7. Geburtstagsfeier (N = 28, Garten)
Also: quo vadis #Passporting via #Schnelltest?
'Mein' mentales Modell: 🧵
1/n
Nach 'meinem' Verständnis
(okay - nach einer wieder mal sehr erhellenden Videokonferenz mit meinem Lieblings-#COVID19-Experty - ja, genau - du bist gemeint :-))
Ist die Antwort natürlich erstmal klar: Es kommt darauf an.
Aber: Wer die Faktoren kennt, kann ...
2/n
(okay - nach einer wieder mal sehr erhellenden Videokonferenz mit meinem Lieblings-#COVID19-Experty - ja, genau - du bist gemeint :-))
Ist die Antwort natürlich erstmal klar: Es kommt darauf an.
Aber: Wer die Faktoren kennt, kann ...
2/n
... ja aus unknown unknowns,
known unknowns
oder vielleicht sogar
known knowns machen - nich wahr*?
Jedenfalls gibt es natürlich eine Basis-Frage:
3/n
*de.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are…
known unknowns
oder vielleicht sogar
known knowns machen - nich wahr*?
Jedenfalls gibt es natürlich eine Basis-Frage:
3/n
*de.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are…
Kürzlich wurde Klaus #Stöhr Nachfolger von Christian #Drosten im Sachverständigenausschuss im Sinne des #IfSG.
Ein angemessener Zeitpunkt, in die Vergangenheit zu blicken und mit dem heutigen Wissen abzugleichen, wie gut Urteile des #Pandemie-erprobten Experten gealtert sind. 1/
Ein angemessener Zeitpunkt, in die Vergangenheit zu blicken und mit dem heutigen Wissen abzugleichen, wie gut Urteile des #Pandemie-erprobten Experten gealtert sind. 1/
📍BREAKING—here it comes—Jonathan Karl tests positive for #COVID19 on Monday after attending the @WHCA’s dinner—sitting next to Kim Kardashian and talking one on one with Biden at #WHCD—yes that dinner we epidemiologists all warned about.
By @maxwelltani
politico.com/news/2022/05/0…
By @maxwelltani
politico.com/news/2022/05/0…
2) We epidemiologists and aerosol scientists have warned about the poor ventilation and high density being a bad setup for almost guaranteed transmission at @WHCA dinner if anyone in the audience had subclinical (undetected) virus. Welp and it happened.
3) I hereby nominate @Trevornoah as an honorary epidemiologist. He at least called the #WHCD for what it is.
📍5th WAVE BEGINNING in SA—cases are surging again in South Africa 🇿🇦, which in the past week is seeing cases tripling, positivity rates also up, and hospitalization rising. The surge has SA facing a possible fifth wave, linked to #BA4 & #BA5 subvariants. nytimes.com/2022/05/02/wor…
2) “What we are seeing now, or at least maybe the first signs, is not completely new variants emerging, but current variants are starting to create lineages of themselves,” Dr. de Oliveira said. Since initial identification last November, Omicron has produced several subvariants.
3) “Some scientists are trying to understand what the BA.4 and BA.5 spike in South Africa, which is concentrated mainly in the Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, says about immunity from previous Omicron infections.
VARIANT UPDATE—#BA2 subvariant family continues to grow to now 96.8% with the more aggressive sub-subvariant BA.2.12.1 now at 28.7% and surging quickly. Old #Ba1 Omicron nearly extinct. Be cautious folks. #CovidIsNotOver
Figure Ht @DrWilliamKu
Figure Ht @DrWilliamKu
2) Are there more potentially dangerous variants out there? Oh yes, #BA4 is really worrisome for example. It’s not in the US yet but it is growing in South Africa.
3) this surge in deaths is almost all #BA2 wave deaths in the UK 🇬🇧— it’s sad people ignore it and don’t care about others dying anymore.
Ich hatte gestern auf der Konferenz hier in Turin ein fast 60min-Gespräch 1:1 mit einem Mediziner zu #COVID19-#Reinfektion & #PostCovid-Sport und er hat meine Perspektive vom Kopf auf die Füße gestellt.
Jetzt frage ich mich: War ich vielleicht in einer Bubble?
Oder...
#HFESE2022
Jetzt frage ich mich: War ich vielleicht in einer Bubble?
Oder...
#HFESE2022
... war ich gestern einfach zu offen & gierig auf eine andere Perspektive zu meinem persönlichen Risiko, die ich nur allzu gern so hören, verstehen & in meine eigene Handlungsregulation übernehmen wollte/will.
Also, liebe Menschen, die ihr euch mit Corona beschäftigt habt ...
Also, liebe Menschen, die ihr euch mit Corona beschäftigt habt ...
Was würdet IHR mir raten?
⚠️BA2 is now 34.9%
A wise mentor once taught me—whenever you see exponential change—#BA2—it’s safe to assume among 3 things:
📌Something new / different is driving it
📌It must be either faster/better/stronger
📌Something new will likely occur soon
Figure @DrWilliamKu #COVID19
A wise mentor once taught me—whenever you see exponential change—#BA2—it’s safe to assume among 3 things:
📌Something new / different is driving it
📌It must be either faster/better/stronger
📌Something new will likely occur soon
Figure @DrWilliamKu #COVID19
2) this is now cases and hospitalization in UK which has been #BA2 dominant for many weeks. England hospitalizations is already approaching their December peak… and surged quite quickly after cases rose I might add (perhaps under testing during early surge?)
3) England lifted all restrictions on Feb 24th… cases surged again. This coincided with also #Ba2 surge. So England is having a double whammy of both dropping mitigation and BA2 at the same time. Way to effing go @BorisJohnson
1/4 - Switzerland (R-eff=1.10) wave of #COVID19 #BA2 cases reaches #BA1 peak (end of Jan), with medium mortality;
33,439 cases and 10 deaths/day foreseen by Mar 24, if at same pace.
Forecasts Mar 20 - Mar 25.
Source: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG and @SDSCdatascience
33,439 cases and 10 deaths/day foreseen by Mar 24, if at same pace.
Forecasts Mar 20 - Mar 25.
Source: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG and @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Forecasted by Mar 25:
>2000 #COVID19 cases/100 Kpop/week in Aargau; Basel L; Basel S; Bern; Glarus; Obwald; Schaffhausen; Solothurn; St-Gallen; Thurgau; Ticino; Zug; Zürich;
>1000: Appenz A; Fribourg; Geneva; Grisons; Jura; Luzern; Neuchâtel; Nidwald;Schwyz;Uri; Vaud.
>2000 #COVID19 cases/100 Kpop/week in Aargau; Basel L; Basel S; Bern; Glarus; Obwald; Schaffhausen; Solothurn; St-Gallen; Thurgau; Ticino; Zug; Zürich;
>1000: Appenz A; Fribourg; Geneva; Grisons; Jura; Luzern; Neuchâtel; Nidwald;Schwyz;Uri; Vaud.
3/4 - By Mar 25:
>500: Appenz I; Valais;
The lowest forecasted #COVID19 cases in Geneva (560);
Highest R-eff in Basel S (1.27); Basel L. (1.23); Geneva (1.20); Vaud (1.17); Zürich (1.17);
Lowest R-eff in Appenzell I=0.69.
>500: Appenz I; Valais;
The lowest forecasted #COVID19 cases in Geneva (560);
Highest R-eff in Basel S (1.27); Basel L. (1.23); Geneva (1.20); Vaud (1.17); Zürich (1.17);
Lowest R-eff in Appenzell I=0.69.
⚠️BA2 DOUBLES IN ONE WEEK—New @CDCgov data shows that #BA2 has now ~doubled to 23.1% from just 11.6% last week (revised 13%). This is a horrendous acceleration from just 7% prior. England surge started when BA2 hit ~half. April increase likely. #GetBoosted covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
2) BA2 is surging at an exponential rate. Look at the same surge in #BA2 on a log scale — the green line clearly shows the log-linear steep climb. This is definitely an ominous trend.
Figure by @DrWilliamKu using CDC data.
Figure by @DrWilliamKu using CDC data.
3) Last week, for March 5th, CDC estimated 11.6%. But for the same week, CDC now admits they grossly underestimated the same week — CDC now revised that up to 13.7%… hence CDC has been underestimating BA2 by a bit. The current 23% could be too low too.
In Sachen COVID gab es in letzter Zeit von meiner Seite wenig zu sagen, da wir aktuell keine präzisen Vorhersagen machen können. Das liegt daran, dass wir (a) nicht genau wissen, wie stark gelockert wird und (b) nicht genau wissen, wie gut die eff. Immunität gegen #BA2 in DE ist.
Für #Delta und #BA1 war das anders. Die Gruppe von Kai Nagel hat zum Beispiel sehr zutreffend vorausberechnet, wann der Peak der #Omikron-BA1 Welle zu erwarten ist.
depositonce.tu-berlin.de/handle/11303/1…
(i/N)
depositonce.tu-berlin.de/handle/11303/1…
(i/N)
Aktuell sind die Vorhersagen wesentlich ungenauer. Die Lockerungen haben ja zwei Komponenten - die gesetzlichen Regeln geben den Rahmen, die persönlichen Entscheidungen bestimmen in dem Rahmen, wie groß der R-Wert dann wirklich wird.
(i/N)
frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
(i/N)
frontiersin.org/articles/10.33…
📈SEWER SIGNALS—there is a sharp reversal in wastewater #SARSCoV2–many now rising across the US / plateauing and no longer falling, says CDC data. This parallels surge in Europe, just a few weeks behind. A #BA2 wave is coming—how soon/big is the question🧵 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2) it doesn’t require a rocket scientist to see there is a huge reversal in wastewater #SARSCoV2 showing more coronavirus surge— this progression will likely continue as #BA2 rises further in prevalence.
3) we already saw hints of it last week in pockets like Palo Alto and others. But this is becoming much more common in more pockets around the country.
Le taux d'incidence et le taux de positivité repartent légèrement à la hausse depuis quelques jours.. dans des départements où la rentrée scolaire a eu lieu il y a deux semaines. Qu'en penser ? ⤵️ #Covid19
leparisien.fr/societe/sante/…
1/8
leparisien.fr/societe/sante/…
1/8
"Depuis le début de l’épidémie, les vacances ont généralement eu un impact positif sur l’épidémie, car elles réduisent les contacts en milieu scolaire et professionnel. Il est donc assez logique que ce rôle de frein s’amenuise avec la rentrée scolaire", avance @PascalCrepey.
2/8
2/8
Pour autant, en Italie, au Portugal ou encore en Allemagne, on observe un phénomène similaire, avec un fort ralentissement de la baisse voire un début de remontée du nombre de cas quotidiens.
3/8
3/8
Warum die #Öffnungen zu früh kommen. Thread. #COVID19 #Omikron
1) Aus der Gefahr einer Spitzenüberlastung in den Spitälern ist die Gefahr einer Dauerüberlastung geworden. Seit Monaten muss das System mit 2000 und mehr zusätzlichen Patienten umgehen.
1) Aus der Gefahr einer Spitzenüberlastung in den Spitälern ist die Gefahr einer Dauerüberlastung geworden. Seit Monaten muss das System mit 2000 und mehr zusätzlichen Patienten umgehen.
2)Selten war das Ansteckungsrisiko höher. Täglich 30-40 Tsd neue Fälle und mangelndes contact tracing bedeuten hundertausende Infektiöse. Gleichzeitig fallen die Masken, unser wichtigster Schutz, und das signalisierte Maßnahmenende erhöht Kontakte und Nachlässigkeit.
Um estudo realizado por pesquisadores do Japão🇯🇵 trazem alertas importantes sobre a sub-linhagem #BA2 da variante #Omicron . Os dados são ainda iniciais (estudos com modelos animais), e precisamos tomar cuidado com suas conclusões nesse momento
O fio da manhã 🧶👇
O fio da manhã 🧶👇
1/16 - “After the World Health Organization’s regional chief for Europe expressed hope last weekend that the continent could be moving to a “pandemic endgame”, his WHO superiors moved quickly to play down such optimism.”
ft.com/content/037a3a…
ft.com/content/037a3a…
2/16 - “Director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus clarified Hans Kluge’s remarks the following day by insisting it was “dangerous to assume . . . we’re in the endgame” of coronavirus while WHO Europe stressed that the “pandemic is not over yet”.
3/16 - “The confused messaging cuts to the heart of a debate that was bubbling even before the #Omicron variant sparked a global infection surge: at what point does the world move on from the pandemic?”
New data out today from #Denmark demonstrating that #Omicron #BA2 is more transmissible than #BA1 and has immune evasive properties reducing protective effect of #vaccination
Full 🧵👇
1/ medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Full 🧵👇
1/ medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
- Of 8,541 primary household cases with #Omicron, 2,122 were #BA2
- There were 5,702 secondary infections among 17,945 potential secondary cases
- In households with #Omicron, secondary attack rate was
29% - #BA1
39% - #BA2
2/
- There were 5,702 secondary infections among 17,945 potential secondary cases
- In households with #Omicron, secondary attack rate was
29% - #BA1
39% - #BA2
2/
- compared to #BA1, #BA2 associated with ⬆️ susceptibility of infection in
#unvaccinated (OR 2.19)
fully #vaccinated (OR 2.45)
#boosted (OR 2.99)
- ⬆️ transmissibility from #unvaccinated cases in #BA2 houses compared to #BA1 (OR 2.62) (Not seen in vaxd or boosted)
3/
#unvaccinated (OR 2.19)
fully #vaccinated (OR 2.45)
#boosted (OR 2.99)
- ⬆️ transmissibility from #unvaccinated cases in #BA2 houses compared to #BA1 (OR 2.62) (Not seen in vaxd or boosted)
3/
📌Not a good signal—somehow in the original 🇿🇦 epicenter of #Omicron, #BA2 subvariant has suddenly become dominant ~58% now, displacing old BA1 strain. Same thing happened in Denmark 🇩🇰 where BA2 is now over 65% dominant.
HT @JosetteSchoenma #COVID19
HT @JosetteSchoenma #COVID19
2) Recently, @JPWeiland used Danish public data and UK data to estimate that #BA2 is about 2x faster than #BA1– the original #Omicron, which was 4-6x faster than Delta, which was 2x faster than Wuhan. So yeah, BA1 is pretty fast and/or immunity evasive.
3) Virus researcher & chief physician of Danish public health authority @ssi_dk says you can get infected with #BA2 subvariant of #Omicron after being infected with Omicron BA.1. ➡️ This is why we shouldn’t risk COVID or chase mass infection. nyheder.tv2.dk/2022-01-21-ny-…
