I've found a piece from @OilGasCanada which illustrates everything that's wrong with how we talk about energy and oil demand, emissions, and energy transitions. I'm told it's important that we fight misinformation with respect to our oil industry, please allow me to do so. 1/N
@OilGasCanada The piece in question is here (context.capp.ca/infographics/2…), originally pubilshed in 2018 but updated in November with new information from the @IEA World Energy Outlook 2019, so I'll consider it a new piece. 2/N
@OilGasCanada @IEA There are 3 central claims in the piece:
1) energy demand will increase through 2040;
2) Use of renewables will increase significantly;
3) More oil and more natural gas will be needed through 2040.
They buttress these claims with a cite to the @iea Stated Policies scenario. 3/N
1) energy demand will increase through 2040;
2) Use of renewables will increase significantly;
3) More oil and more natural gas will be needed through 2040.
They buttress these claims with a cite to the @iea Stated Policies scenario. 3/N
@OilGasCanada @IEA That's accurate as far as the Stated Policies scenario goes, but here's where the gaslighting kicks in. They pivot to describe this as indicative of what we should expect, "as we move towards a lower-carbon future." They then provide this helpful infographic. 4/N 
@OilGasCanada @IEA So, dear reader, what you might be given to understand is that the changes in energy supply depicted in the infographic correspond to a lower carbon scenario. Unless lower doesn't mean what I think it means, that's not the case. 5/N
@OilGasCanada @IEA Let's take a little visit to the IEA's World Energy Outlook and see what it actually says. In Figure 1 of Chapter 1, they provide this useful graphic which shows energy demand and emissions for the Stated Policies Scenario, along with the other scenarios they consider. 6/N
@OilGasCanada @IEA If you'll check Stated Policies on the left, you'll notice something interesting. Yes, energy demand goes up, and yes we use a lot of oil and gas, but there's that pesky orange line through the middle of the figure which, in my professional opinion, is not decreasing. 7/N
@OilGasCanada @IEA That's right: it's not a lower carbon future in any sense of the word lower. It's a higher carbon future. In Stated Policies, emissions increase through the sample. Here's how the IEA describes it: 8/N
@OilGasCanada @IEA So, what the IEA says is, if you want to think about a lower carbon future, don't look to Stated Policies because it's not going to do the trick. The IEA suggests that you have a look at the Sustainable Development Scenario. So, let's do that. 9/N
@OilGasCanada @IEA Let's recall that one of the central claims in the CAPP piece was that, as we move to a lower-carbon world, "more oil and more natural gas will be also be needed to ensure energy security." However, that's not what the IEA's lower-carbon world scenario actually shows. 10/N
@OilGasCanada @IEA The WEO has more detail on each commodity, so let's look specifically at oil. In their lower-carbon world, they explain that, "oil demand peaks very soon [...] and falls back to 67 mb/d by 2040, a level last seen in 1990." That's doesn't sound like more oil, does it? 11/N
@OilGasCanada @IEA What about gas, you ask? Gas is trickier since you do see very big emissions savings from coal-to-gas conversions, but overall the WEO doesn't support CAPP's contention here either. They see gas demand peaking this decade in their only lower-carbon world scenario. 12/N
@OilGasCanada @IEA Here's some backup from outside the WEO. Gas demand is certainly much more uncertain than oil in scenarios consistent with the WEO lower-carbon runs. There are, among those model runs, 2C and even 1.5C scenarios with higher gas demand than we see today. 13/N
@OilGasCanada @IEA There are 2C scenarios where we see oil demand increasing beyond current levels, but the central tendency is decreasing demand. You can't say that aggressive action on climate = lower oil demand now, but you can reject the implication that Stated Policies = lower-carbon. 14/N
@OilGasCanada @IEA That said, remember that lower oil production does not equate to no new oil investment. Decline rates of existing assets exceed the decline in demand associated with increased climate action. So, don't @ me with your hot takes on pipelines or upstream investment. 15/15
@OilGasCanada @IEA Law has gotten me hooked on perma.cc, so here's a stable link to the document in case (as I hope CAPP does) they update it. perma.cc/9KEA-KDHU
