Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #GdP

Most recents (24)

What really causes inflation? 🧵

[a thread for normies - like me]
2/ The problem with #inflation is that it's a very personal experience.

As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.

In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:

* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.

** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.

*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
Read 25 tweets
#China's August urban surveyed unemployment rate 5.3%[Est. 5.4%;Prev. 5.4%]
Jan-Aug urban fixed investment +5.8% y/y [Est.+5.5%;Prev.+5.7%]
Aug industrial value-added +4.2% y/y [Est.+3.8%;Prev.+3.8%]
Aug retail sales +5.4% y/y [Est.+3.5%;Prev.+2.7%]
1/n #GDP #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
China produced 5.74 million tons of non-ferrous metal in August, which rose by 6.7%, the most since January 2021.
Jan-Aug non-ferrous metal productions +1.9% to 44 million tons.
2/ #China #copper #aluminum
In Aug, #China's total retail sales were recorded at 3.6258 trillion yuan, up 5.4% y/y but dropped 0.05% m/m.
Among them, retail sales of goods were 3.25 trillion yuan, which rose by 5.1% y/y; The total revenue for the catering industry was 374.8 billion yuan, surged 8.4% y/y.
3/
Read 6 tweets
7 years after the new #GDP series was unveiled, it continues to baffle analysts, investors, and citizens of the country.
Rahul's #thread below is right on some aspects of the GDP calculations and not on others.
Hence this thread of mine! (1/n)
First, I must point out that the very fact that we are still trying to figure out what the GDP data actually conveys so many years after the revision was made tells us something.
Had @GoIStats' transparency and documentation levels been higher, this wouldn't have happened. (2/n)
Second, Rahul is right about deflators being a key problem in the GDP calculations. However, the impression being conveyed that earlier it was all volume-based is not true. Even earlier, it was a mix of volume and value-based calculations. (3/n)
Read 20 tweets
Do You Know Who Is the First Billionaire?

Here is A Small Thread 🧵
(1/8)
#BILLIONAIRE
John Davison Rockefeller was the world's 1st billionaire
He was an American business magnate and philanthropist. He has been widely considered the wealthiest American of all time and the richest person in modern history.
(2/8)
#johndavison #business
John Davison Rockefeller with a fortune worth nearly 2% of the national economy. His personal wealth was estimated in 1913 at $900 million, which was almost 3% of the US GDP of $39.1 billion that year.
(3/8)
#wealth #GDP
Read 8 tweets
#GDP, again: "The contrast between overall #wellbeing and economic #growth is perhaps most evident in the #US. Between 2020 and 2021 US GDP increased by 9.08%, but during that same period, #LifeExpectancy actually decreased by 0.39 years."

opendemocracy.net/en/oureconomy/…
"A recent report from the #Wellbeing Economy Alliance (which one of us works for) found the countries that prioritised well-being over economic growth during #COVID fared better from a health and economic standpoint."
Read 5 tweets
The global economy has changed dramatically this year, and financial markets have turned volatile. The question on everyone’s mind now is…

(1/8)

#globaleconomy #financialmarkets #nifty
Will recession hit India? How will it be different from past recessions that our country has faced?

Let’s look at some data points.

(2/8)

#recession #india #economy
Based on the RBI’s assessment, the Real GDP projection is retained at 7.2% for FY23. This comes on the back of strong investment activity, improving bank credit and rising capacity expansion.

(3/8)

#rbi #gdp #centralbanks
Read 8 tweets
As we approach the @federalreserve’s monetary policy conference at #JacksonHole this week, a question we’ve been asking ourselves is whether the abundance of survey-based, and goods-oriented, #economic data may be overstating the weakness in the #economy as a whole?
Without question, many broad-based surveys, including those focused on #ConsumerConfidence and small #business optimism, are painting a very bleak picture of the #economic trajectory. Image
And at the same time, many goods/manufacturing sector data points are portending continued significant weakening of the sector. Image
Read 12 tweets
@bankofengland raises rates by 50bps today and forecasts nflation to 🏔13.1% by end-2022.

It looks like the bank is forecasting a mild #recession with #GDP growth *falling* by 1.5% in 2023.

This is accompanied by a modest rise in the #unemployment rate to 5.75% in 2024.
A 🧵
As I read through the @bankofengland report, I will tweet my commentary here.

Taken from the report:
A #recession2022 is the Bank’s base case forecast.😣

“The United Kingdom is now projected to enter recession from the fourth quarter of this year.”

bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-polic…
“The changes Ofgem has announced to the method for updating the household energy price cap are also expected to push up CPI inflation in the near term…”

This was a worry I set out yesterday.
Read 8 tweets
Private Member Bills are listed for introduction & discussion in #RajyaSabha today

A Bill on Uniform Civil Code by Kirodi Lal Meena is listed everytime, but he seems to be always absent & it doesn't get introduced. Same today.

Some other Bills get introduced today:
- Waqf Amendment by Dr. Fauzia Khan
- Compulsory Voting by Deepak Prakash
- Bengal freedom fighters memorial by Shanta Chhetri
- Indian national army regiment 2022 by shanta chhetri
- Central Public Sector Enterprises (Protection of
Interests of States) by John Brittas
National Commission for the welfare of homeless workers - by P. Sandosh Kumar

#Parliament #MonsoonSession
Read 15 tweets
Worldwide PMIs to provide guidance on recession risks and inflation trends. Read our free preview of what to look out for in Friday's flash releases ihsmarkit.com/research-analy…
The key data will be the new orders indices, and what they are telling us about the environment in which central banks are hiking interest rates. It's not been looking great up to June ... Image
With forward-looking #PMI indicators such as business expectations, new orders and backlogs of work signalling worse is yet to come, euro area #GDP looks set to contract in the third quarter Image
Read 6 tweets
The Power of The Dollar 🧵

[a thread for normies -like me]
Long periods of #dollar-strength often ended with massive financial dislocations like the Latin American #debt crisis of the 80s and the Asian crisis of the 90s.

Oppositely, long periods of a weakening dollar came with strong markets like between 2003-2007.

1/20
Although the #USdollar is not itself an asset, cash is.

The dollar is the most common currency in which assets are quoted and exchanged in #financialmarkets and the economy.

It's the world's reserve currency (for now at least...) 2/ 20
Read 22 tweets
JUST IN
China Q2 GDP data:
Q2 GDP YoY +0.4%[Est.+1.0%;Prev.+4.8%]
Q2 GDP QoQ -2.6%[Est.-1.5%;Prev.+1.3%]
#China #GDP #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
More data will be updated in this thread.
1/
China' June urban surveyed unemployment rate 5.5%[Est. 5.7%; Prev. 5.9%]
Jan-June urban fixed investment +6.1% y/y [Est.+6.0%;Prev.+6.2%]
June industrial value-added +3.9% y/y [Est.+4.1%;Prev.+0.7%]
June retail sales +3.1% y/y [Est.0%;Prev.-6.7%]
#China #GDP #EconTwitter 🇨🇳
2/
In June, #China's total retail sales were recorded at 3.87 trillion yuan, up 3.1% y/y or up 0.53% m/m.
Among them, retail sales of goods were 3.50 trillion yuan, which rose by 3.9% y/y; The total revenue for the catering industry was 376.6 billion yuan, down 4.0%.
3/
Read 8 tweets
While the pictures from the #WebbSpace Telescope have transfixed everyone with an interest in outer space, back on planet earth, investors are fixated on #recession. We looked at the history of recessions and found some interesting facts. Here’s the lowdown: 1/7
There have been 12 official recessions. On an average, they happen about every 6.5 years. The average period of #recession lasts about 10 months. But the ones in 1973, 1981, & 2007 lasted for well over a year. 2/7
Before the #pandemic, the deepest recessions that saw #GDP decline by more than 3%, started in 1957 (tightening of monetary policy), 1973 (stagflation, oil embargo) and 2007 (global financial crisis). 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Liebe @badischezeitung, wenn man den umstrittensten Gewerkschafter in seiner Zeitung einfach so losplaudern lässt, dann darf man sich nicht wundern, dass so ein Unsinn rauskommt. Dass er dazu noch dem MP von BW mangelndes Demokratieverständnis unterstellt, ist unverschämt. 1/X
Sie sollten berücksichtigen, dass die größere der beiden Gewerkschaften, die #GdP durch ihren stellv. Bundesvorsitzenden im Beirat der #MEGAVO Studie vertreten ist.

Sie sollten auch berücksichtigen, dass nicht #Wendt im Hauptpersonalrat sitzt, sondern der Landesvorsitzende 2/X
BW der #DPolG, Ralf Kusterer.
Dann sollten sie auch mal hinterfragen ob der Hauptpersonalrat überhaupt durch das Landespersonalvertretungsrecht eine Form der Mitbestimmung hat, um die Studie wirksam abzulehnen.
Wenn Sie solche Fragestellungen im Vorfeld berücksichtigt hätten, 3/X
Read 4 tweets
Welcome to the Most Anticipated Recession in History - One data point from the Fed’s officialdom confirms the United States is in a technical recession and heading for a potential hard landing - by @TraderStef #GDP #Recession #DemandDestruction #TaperCaper crushthestreet.com/articles/break… Image
Read 10 tweets
📢THE COLLAPSE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY AND THE SOLUTION IN THE FORM OF CRYPTO! 📢

In this little story I summarize how Covid, Supply Chain, Debt, Wages, Inflation, a Eecession, Insolvency and an aging population come together to form a common solution: Crypto Assets

1) ...
So much is happening in the world. War, High #inflation, Covid, #recession, insolvancy, a debt bubble and Supply Chain problems.

All of these causes have a large impact on the world economy and therefore on your portfolio, which makes it important to understand what is going on. Image
The main consequence:

An nation on the verge of collapse and a debt bubble around the world.

As Ray Dalio said

'A nation in its last effort of strength is hugely in debt, there are internal wealth disparities and printing money seems to many to be the solution, but it is not'. Image
Read 25 tweets
Every now and then I will make a #thread 🧵 of #threads 🧵 to keep you all updated on the #alpha I shared across time on #Twitter.

Today is the day. I don't know how long this will be.

Let's start with the previous threads🧵of threads🧵
Read 18 tweets
The @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for the Federal Funds #policy rate by 0.75% yesterday, to between 1.50% and 1.75%, as was increasingly anticipated.
The move by the #Fed to progress faster to neutral will be applauded in the long run by the #economy, business decision-makers and ultimately by# markets.
Like putting your car’s transmission (automatic or manual) into #neutral, getting to that place allows for decision-making flexibility given changing road conditions, particularly when the road to the #destination has become increasingly #murky.
Read 13 tweets
As the #FOMC announces new interest rate hikes today, likely triggering a recession (at best,) it is important to remember:

THIS IS NOT NORMAL.

In defense of free, unmanipulated, markets:

🧵👇

1/ Image
2/
"the free market" broadly refers to the ability for humans anywhere to freely, unobtrusively, and without outside manipulation, exchange goods, services, and value in trade with one another.

There are many markets: there is a market for everything that is trade-able... but, Image
3/
perhaps the most important market of all is the market for money; i.e. the market for capital.

Through the free markets, through thousands of years of trade, after using
salt🧂
seashells🐚
cattle🐄
stones🪨
the world zeroed in on monetary metals as money... why?

because... Image
Read 17 tweets
India’s central bank hikes interest rates by 50 bps to fight off ‘globalised’ inflation

businessinsider.in/finance/news/i…

By @jainrounak and @KatyaNaidu
The Indian central bank today raised its #interestrates – the second time in a month - by 50 basis points. This is higher than last month’s hike of 40 basis points and the base interest rate at which the central bank lends is now at 4.9%.

#RBI #RepoRate
"The #reporate still remains below its pre-pandemic level," @DasShaktikanta, the governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said while making the announcement.

#RBI
Read 6 tweets
"Las hazañas" de la FED y los Bancos Centrales

Todo lo que se nos viene encima estos próximos meses/años no es más que una tremenda resaca de algo que empezó hace 13 años. La fiesta algún día tenía que terminar.

Dentro hilo 🧵👇

1/10

#FED #BCE #Economia #Crypto #BTC
En 2008-2009, en plena crisis financiera, empiezan su plan para recuperar la economia manipulando la oferta y la demanda del dinero en sí.

Objetivo 🎯: abaratar el coste del dinero (coste de financiación) a largo plazo.

2/10
Como?

- Imprimiendo dinero
- Compras masivas de bonos: tanto soberanos (deuda publica ) como hipotecarios

...como consecuencia:

- Sube el precio del bono
- Cae la rentabilidad (coste al que se financia el gobierno)

3/10
Read 11 tweets
At present, the #SriLankan economy is extremely precarious. Although the former government’s budget projected revenue of SLR 2.3 trillion, SLR 1.6 trillion is the realistic projection of this year’s revenue: PM of Sri Lanka #RanilWickremesinghe, in #Colombo

#Economy #SriLanka Image
The estimated govt expenditure for this year is SLR 3.3 trillion. However, due to increase in interest rates & addl expenditure of ex-govt, total govt expenditure is SLR 4 trillion. Budget deficit for the yr is SLR 2.4 trillion. This amount equals 13% of the #GDP: PM of Sri Lanka
Read 9 tweets
🪡 1/10 👇🏻 👀

#NATO is comprised of 30 countries and spends $1.174 TRILLION annually 💣 💥

#US is responsible for $811B of that, or 69% as we outspend ALL other countries by $448B 🇺🇸

Member countries are expected to spend 2% of their #GDP by 2024 but many are not on track…
In this graphic (2019) #NATO spend is compared to the rest of the world… 🌎

At that time #NATO spending was about 117% of that from non-member nations ⚖️

#NATO budget has only increased to now represent 57% of all global military spend 💪🏼

🪡 2/X
$40B heading to #Ukraine would represent ~4% of our annual #NATO contribution… 💸

But as Ukraine is not a member nation, it is unlikely this money will be considered in 2022 contributions to #NATO… 🌐

See how the $40B breaks down in link:

randoland.us/bill_breakdown…

🪡 3/X
Read 12 tweets

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